Analysis and advice for a meeting between first-place Phoenix and Atlanta and the Battle for L.A.
Tuesday night picks were hugely successful. I went at it alone and went 5-1. I’m back with a guest picker for this evening’s national TV affairs. Pat Benson joins me once again as Atlanta, the team he covers for All Hawks, hosts the Suns, winners of 11 in a row. We’re also picking the late game—Lakers-Clippers. Anthony Davis is back in the lineup for L.A., which is desperately trying to move up and out of play-in purgatory.
Away we go.
Season record: 82-82-2
Guest pickers: 62-92
Phoenix Suns (41-9) vs. Atlanta Hawks (24-26)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Suns -4.5 (+100) | Hawks +4.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Suns (-175) | Hawks (+145)
Total: Under 226.5 (-110) | Over 226.5 (-110)
Injuries: Suns G Landry Shamet—Day-to-day; Suns G Cameron Payne—Out; Hawks G Trae Young—Day-to-day; Hawks F De’Andre Hunter—Day-to-day
Suns Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 10-0
ATS Record: 28-22
O/U Record: 23-27
Points Per Game/Rank: 113/3
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 105.1/7
Phoenix looks unbeatable right now. The Suns survived a visit from the Nets on Tuesday night and ended up logging another double-digit victory behind Devin Booker’s 35 points. Deandre Ayton rejoined the team on Tuesday after a seven-game absence and got right into rhythm, logging 28 minutes and scoring 12 points. Chris Paul has Phoenix’s offense running as smooth as possible right now—he has 47 assists in the last three games.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
Hawks Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 7-3
ATS Record: 22-28
O/U Record: 26-24
Points Per Game/Rank: 111.5/8
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 111.2/23
Atlanta had rattled off seven wins in a row before dropping a game to the Raptors on Tuesday. Trae Young missed that game with a shoulder injury. That left the playmaking duties to Delon Wright and the offense suffered. Atlanta is 2-3 without Young, its leading scorer. When the Hawks played the Suns in Phoenix earlier this season they lost, 121-117.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread pick: Suns -4.5
Phoenix is 7-4 ATS on its current win streak and performs just as well on the road (19-4) as it does at home (22-5). The Suns are essentially at full health with Ayton back on the court and Booker and Paul are playing at the peak of their powers. The possibility for the Hawks to have to go up against one of the league’s premier offenses and defenses without Young’s scoring and playmaking ability makes me inclined to pick Phoenix and do so comfortably. Even if Young does suit up, I’ll be picking the Suns until they give me a reason not to trust them.
Over/Under pick: Over 226.5
This is more of a bet on Phoenix than on Atlanta. The Hawks managed just 100 points in their last game without Young and average fewer than 100 in their five games without him this year. But the Suns have been scoring at a blistering pace. They average 123.3 PPG over their last three games and their defense has faltered just a bit, opening the door for Atlanta to put up enough points to send this game over.
Prop: Devin Booker Over 29.5 Points
Booker has led the team in scoring in nine of 11 games during the streak and averages better than 30 points during this stretch. He’s fresh off a 35-point outing against the Nets and Atlanta has one of the worst defenses in the league. When these teams played the first time around, he went for 38. I think he easily scores 30 in Atlanta.
Guest picker Pat Benson’s Bets:
Spread pick: Suns -4.5
Before losing to the Raptors, the Hawks had won seven straight games and covered the spread in each of them. However, they remain in the bottom third of the league against the spread, while the Suns have been consistent all season.
Over/Under pick: Over 226.5
This game features two of the top-three offenses in the league. Additionally, the Suns and Hawks score 113 and 111 points per game, respectively. Go with the over.
Prop: Devin Booker Under 29.5 Points
Devin Booker averages 25.4 points per game. I know the Hawks defense is bad, but they're not giving up 30 points to Book. Take his under tonight.
Los Angeles Lakers (25-27) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (26-27)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Lakers +3.5 (-110) | Clippers -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers (+138) | Clippers (-163)
Total: Under 219.5 (-110) | Over 219.5 (-110)
Injuries: Lakers F LeBron James—Out; Lakers F Anthony Davis—Day-to-day; Lakers G Malik Monk—Day-to-day; Clippers C Ivica Zubac—Day-to-day
Lakers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 4-6
ATS Record: 22-30
O/U Record: 29-23
Points Per Game/Rank: 110.8/11
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 112.6/27
L.A. scored a critical win over the Trail Blazers Wednesday night. It took a 30-point, 15-rebound showing from Anthony Davis to get it done in LeBron James’ absence, but the Lakers were able to end their three-game losing streak. Los Angeles now turns around for a back-to-back against the Clippers, who it lost to earlier this season. The Clippers are one spot ahead of the Lakers in the current standings, adding some extra intrigue to this game.
Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sports
Clippers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 26-27
O/U Record: 24-28-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 106.1/25
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 106.8/10
The Clippers return home from an eight-game road trip where they went 4-4, most recently losing to the Pacers on Monday. On a few days of rest, they face their crosstown rival without James, though L.A. has been playing without Kawhi Leonard all season and Paul George for most of it. A different player steps up every night for this team, most recently Amir Coffey, who went for 27 points last time out.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread pick: Lakers +2.5
The way Davis played on Wednesday night was hugely encouraging for the Lakers’ hopes in this game and moving forward. The Lakers have a poor road record (9-15), but luckily for them, this isn’t a true road game, even if the floor will read Clippers. Davis will be the best player on the court in this game and Russell Westbrook can and should be the second best. That talent disparity from a star point of view makes me lean the Lakers’ way, especially getting points.
Over/Under pick: Over 219.5
The Lakers only managed 99 points last time out, but their offense ranks just outside the top-10 highest-scoring teams in the league. And Lakers games, with an above average offense and porous defense, hit the over at one of the highest clips in the league. Meanwhile, the Clippers have scored 110 or more points in three straight games and their defense, the strength of this starless team, has lagged lately.
Prop: Lakers Total Points Over 108.5
Like I said before, this is essentially a home game for the Lakers, and I’m going with the over which pairs well with the Lakers getting into the low 110s. The Clippers have allowed opponents to score 120-plus points in two of their last three games. Davis should be able to have his way in the paint with Clippers big man Ivica Zubac questionable.
Guest picker Pat Benson’s Bets:
Spread pick: Lakers +3.5
The Lakers just finished a game against the Trail Blazers, while the Clippers have had two consecutive days off. Despite their age, the Lakers are 4-2 against the spread on no rest. Additionally, they are 7-4 against the spread with a rest disadvantage. They're the better team even without LeBron, so I'm taking the Lakers +3.5.
Over/Under pick: Over 219.5
Again, the Lakers over-perform when operating on no rest. Even better, 217.5 combined points isn't a stretch for either of these teams. Over.
Prop: Lakers First-Half ML
If you haven’t noticed yet, I’m high on the Lakers performing well tonight. Let’s keep it rolling with the Lakers winning the first half at +118.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7 p.m. main slate)
PG/SG Tyrese Haliburton, Kings (FD: $7,600 | DK: $8,500)
SF/SG Amir Coffey, Clippers ($5,100 | $5,600)
SF/PF Mikal Bridges, Suns ($6,300 | $6,400)
SF/PF Harrison Barnes, Kings ($5,700 | $6,800)
C/PF Bam Adebayo, Heat ($8,200 | $8,400)
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