Picks and analysis for meetings between Washington-Milwaukee and Brooklyn-Phoenix.
The Wizards head to Milwaukee Tuesday night to take on the defending champion Bucks without Bradley Beal. Washington won the first meeting between these two teams, but a recent skid and Beal's absence made this a double-digit spread. And in the desert, the Suns, riding a 10-game winning streak, host the Nets. Kyrie Irving is a go, and James Harden is questionable for Brooklyn, which has struggled without Kevin Durant.
There’s no guest picker for today’s games—just me. Let’s get into the games.
Season record: 77-81-2
Guest pickers: 62-92
Check the Latest NBA Lines at SI Sportsbook
Jason Getz/USA Today Sports
Washington Wizards (23-26) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (31-21)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Wizards +11.5 (-118) | Bucks -11.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Wizards (+500) | Bucks (-699)
Total: Under 225.5 (-110) | Over 225.5 (-110)
Injuries: Wizards G Bradley Beal—Out; Bucks G George Hill—Out
Wizards Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 4-6
ATS Record: 19-29-1
O/U Record: 25-23-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 107.6/20
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 110.1/19
Washington enters Tuesday on a five-game losing streak that has the team outside of the play-in tournament in the East. The Wizards will be without their leading scorer, Bradley Beal, who is missing his second game in a row with a wrist injury. Washington won the first meeting between these teams way back in November when the Wizards briefly had one of the best records in the league.
Bucks Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 22-30
O/U Record: 23-29
Points Per Game/Rank: 111.8/6
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 108.8/15
Milwaukee was hammered by the Nuggets at home on Sunday, losing by 36 while Denver drained 23 three-pointers. That was the Bucks’ second double-digit loss in a three-game span—the Cavaliers beat them by 16 last Wednesday. A few weeks of .500 basketball saw Milwaukee drop in the standings, though the team is still just a few games out of first in the crowded East. Giannis Antetokounmpo just put together his best month of the season, averaging better than 31 PPG, and he’s building his case for a third MVP award.
Wizards-Bucks bets
Spread pick: Bucks -11.5
Milwaukee is coming off an embarrassing home loss against a good Denver team. This is a prime opportunity to bounce back against the short-handed Wizards. It’s a rather large spread for the Bucks to cover, though they are 5-4 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. Washington has lost some close games over the last few weeks, but that was with Beal. The team lost by 20 points in his absence against the Grizzlies.
Over/Under pick: Over 225.5
In two of their last three games, the Bucks were stifled offensively, managing just 100 and 99 points. They've also had some high-scoring outputs recently: 123 against the Knicks, 133 against the Kings, 126 against the Grizzlies. I think their final output looks more like those figures against Washington. That's why I'm picking the over here. I don't have much confidence in the Wizards to put up lots of points without their No. 1 weapon, but the Bucks have had some recent defensive lapses that could allow Washington to approach 110 points and send this game over.
Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 Points
Antetokounmpo has gone over this figure just twice in his last five games, but he consistently hovers just under it—29-26, 30 in the three games he did not hit the over. He just wrapped up a month in which he averaged better than 31 PPG, and his free throw numbers (and percentages) are up significantly. I like this game to be a bounce-back for the Bucks, which coincides with a big offensive game for Antetokounmpo.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Brooklyn Nets (29-20) vs. Phoenix Suns (40-9)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Nets +5.5 (+100) | Suns -5.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Nets (+205) | Suns (-250)
Total: Under 226.5 (-110) | Over 226.5 (-110)
Injuries: Nets G James Harden—Day-to-day; Nets F Kevin Durant—Out; Nets C LaMarcus Aldridge—Out; Suns C Deandre Ayton—Out; Suns F Jae Crowder—Out; Suns G Landry Shamet—Out; Suns G Cameron Payne—Out
Nets Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 4-6
ATS Record: 19-29-1
O/U Record: 23-26
Points Per Game/Rank: 111.9/5
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 110/18
Brooklyn has lost four games in a row and continues its west coast road trip against the best team in the NBA Tuesday night. Not having Kevin Durant available hurts the Nets on both sides of the ball, but Kyrie Irving is available for the team’s next four games as they’re all away from Brooklyn. The Suns won the last meeting between these teams—a potential Finals matchup—in November in Brooklyn.
Suns Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 10-0
ATS Record: 27-22
O/U Record: 22-27
Points Per Game/Rank: 112.9/3
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 105/7
Phoenix lost just one game in January and has a chokehold on the best record in basketball. The Suns are averaging 115.8 PPG on their current winning streak and have held three opponents under 100 points during that stretch. Devin Booker has been on a scoring tear for weeks now, and Chris Paul continues to rack up double-digit assist games, adding to his league-leading mark.
Nets-Suns bets
Spread pick: Suns -5.5
This pick hinges a bit on the health of Harden, who is listed as questionable for this game, but I like the Suns regardless. Momentum and availability are on their side in this matchup. Even with the players Phoenix is missing, the Suns have much greater depth than Brooklyn. The home-road split is interesting for this game—and really all Nets games—given Irving's availability, but Phoenix does not lose at home. The Suns are 21-5 on their home floor, which improves tonight with a cover to boot.
Over/Under pick: Over 226.5
Phoenix has the weapons to score at will, as does Brooklyn though in very different ways. The scorers that the Nets employ in Harden and Irving can get theirs regardless of the Suns’ elite defense, and Phoenix’s democratic offense can make light work of a defense like the Nets’, which is prone to allowing big scoring outbursts. Both teams’ games go under more than half of the time, but I see this game in the desert being a high-scoring affair.
Prop: Cameron Johnson Under 16.5 Points
Johnson had some high-scoring outings in the last month, eclipsing 20 three times. Still, 17 points is a big ask for a player averaging 12 PPG. He's gone over 16.5 points in four of his last 10 games and has required big three-point performances to do so. Brooklyn has one of the best three-point defenses in the league, and I think they prioritize chasing players like Johnson, a 43% shooter from deep, off the arc.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7:30 p.m. main slate)
PG Monte Morris, Nuggets (FD: $5,300 | DK: $5,100)
SG/SF Gary Trent, Raptors ($7,200 | $5,800)
SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, Wizards ($7,200 | $7,400)
PF/C Wendell Carter, Magic ($6,700 | $6,200)
PF/C Willy Hernangomez, Pelicans ($5,400 | $5,700)
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