SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking focuses on two Big 12 and Big Ten conference tournament matchups on his Friday NCAA basketball betting card.
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No. 12 Oklahoma State at No. 2 Baylor
Meeting for the third time this season, Oklahoma State and Baylor square off in the semifinal round of the Big 12 tournament. Tipoff for the Cowboys vs. Bears battle is at 6:30 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. Baylor swept the two-game regular season series. The Bears won the first meeting, 81–66 on the road on Jan. 23, and covered as 11.5 favorites. Then won the second game, 81–70 at home on Mar. 4, but failed to cover as 12-point chalk. Baylor has won nine of the last 10 games in this series.
Oklahoma State (19–7, 11–7 Big 12) finished fifth in the Big 12 standings and earned a bye into the quarterfinal round as the No. 5 seed. The Cowboys advanced to the semifinal round with a 72–69 win against West Virginia yesterday. Oklahoma State erased a 36–30 halftime deficit, and outscored the Mountaineers 42–33 in the second half to win outright as 3.5-point underdogs. The Cowboys have been a solid betting option over the last seven games as they are 6–1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread.
Baylor (22–1, 13–1 Big 12) finished first in the Big 12 standings and earned a bye into the quarterfinals as the No. 1 seed. In a contest that was closer than expected, Baylor advanced to semifinals with a 74–68 win over Kansas State yesterday. The Wildcats, who were 20-point underdogs, had a 42–41 lead three minutes into the second half but trailed the rest of the way. The Bears lone regular season loss was 71–58 to Kansas as 4.5-point road favorites on Feb. 27. Baylor is 2–4 ATS over their last six games.
The Bears enter this contest with an edge on offense and defense. Baylor scores 84.8 ppg on offense while Oklahoma State averages 76.5 ppg. The Bears allow 65.7 ppg on defense while the Cowboys give up 72.2 ppg. During their 7–0 run against the spread, Oklahoma State played six teams that were ranked No. 18 or better in the AP Top 25. That includes two wins as underdogs against West Virginia who Baylor defeated 94–89 in OT on Mar. 4. Expecting a close contest, take the points and back the Cowboys.
Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys +9 (-113) at DraftKings
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Wisconsin at No. 5 Iowa
Long-time rivals clash when Wisconsin and Iowa meet in the quarterfinal round of the Big Ten tournament. Tipoff for the Badgers vs. Hawkeyes contest is slated for 9:00 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. Iowa swept the two-game regular season series. The Hawkeyes won the first meeting 77–62 as 1.5-point road favorites on Feb. 18. In the regular season finale for both teams, Iowa won 77–73 but failed to cover as 7.5-point chalk at home on Mar. 7. Iowa has won three straight games in this series.
Wisconsin (16–11, 10–10 Big Ten) entered the tournament as the No. 6 seed and earned a bye into the second round. The Badgers closed their season on a 1–5 slide. In addition to the games versus Iowa, Wisconsin played a tough schedule down the stretch. They lost 67–59 at home to No. 3 Michigan, 74–69 at home to No. 5 Illinois, and 73–69 to No. 23 Purdue on the road. The lone win was 68–51 against Northwestern. The Badgers advanced to the quarterfinal round with 75–74 win against Penn State yesterday.
Iowa (20–7, 14–6 Big Ten) finished third in the Big Ten and earned a bye into the quarterfinals as the No. 3 seed. The Hawkeyes rebounded from a 1–4 midseason slide (0–5 ATS) as they won seven of their last eight games. They were 5–3 against the spread in those contests. Prior to the second win against Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes crushed Nebraska 102–64 as 17.5 favorites at home on Mar 4. That was preceded by a 73–57 win as 2.5-point favorites on the road against No. 4 Ohio State on Feb. 28.
Although they have been held to 77 points or fewer during five of the last six games, Iowa is averaging 85.0 ppg on offense while Wisconsin scores 70.1 ppg. The Badgers have an edge on defense as they allow 64.4 ppg while the Hawkeyes give up 72.1 ppg. Wisconsin has scored 69 or fewer points during seven of their last nine games and didn’t exceed 62 points in four of those contests. Iowa may be without second leading scorer Joe Wieskamp (ankle) but I still like the Hawkeyes to cover the spread.
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes -4.5 (-112) at DraftKings
2020–21 NCAA Basketball Betting Record: 31-26 ATS
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