Bets and analysis for quarterfinal games in the SEC and Big Ten and semifinal games in the Big East and Pac-12.
The remaining teams are slowly being whittled away as the conference tournaments rage on.
There are trips to title games up for grabs in the Big East and Pac-12, while the SEC and Big Ten are a ways away from crowning a champion and awarding an auto bid.
Conference tournament betting previews: Big Ten | ACC | Big East | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
It’s another packed slate of top-25 teams. Let’s get into the games.
Check the Latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Odds at SI Sportsbook
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SEC quarterfinal: LSU (22-10, 5 seed) vs. Arkansas (24–7, 4 seed)
- Time: 2 p.m. ET | ESPN
- Spread: LSU +3 (-110) | Arkansas -3 (-118)
- Moneyline: LSU (+125) | Arkansas (-161)
- Over/Under: Under 142 (-118) | Over 142 (-110)
A week ago, these teams met in Fayetteville, Arkansas, and the Razorbacks escaped with a 77-76 victory. Arkansas won the earlier meeting in Baton Rouge, 65-58, as well.
Vegas seems to think this will be another close battle between two tournament-bound SEC squads.
LSU defeated Missouri, 76-68, in the second round on Thursday to advance to this point. After dropping three of their last five games, that was a big win for the Tigers, their second in a row. LSU's identity is its defense, ranked fifth on KenPom and yielding just 63.1 ppg to opposing teams. The offense is a bit shakier, but the Tigers have two forwards—Tari Eason and Darius Days—who combine to average more than 30 ppg and rebound well.
Arkansas lost its most recent game to Tennessee before the tournament began. It was a rare loss for a Razorbacks team that had won 14 of its last 15 games. The Hogs are better than LSU offensively, averaging 77.3 ppg, and they aren't far behind the Tigers on defense. Arkansas' defense is ranked 15th on KenPom, and they allow just over 68 ppg.
If any team can overcome LSU's suffocating defense, it's Arkansas. Senior J.D. Notae can put up points in a hurry when needed—he leads the team at 18.9 PPG—and for how good the Hogs have been the last month, I can't see them going one and done in the conference tourney. Between two highly rated defenses and a pair of teams that don't specialize in shooting the three-ball, the under seems rather safe.
BET: Arkansas -3, Under 142
MORE: Bracket Watch: Whose March Madness Bubble Will Burst?
Daniel Kucin Jr./USA TODAY Sports
Big Ten quarterfinal: Michigan State (21–11, 7 seed) vs. No. 12 Wisconsin (24–6, 2 seed)
- Time: 6:30 p.m. | BTN
- Spread: Michigan State +2.5 (-105) | Wisconsin -2.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Indiana (+125) | Michigan (-161)
- Over/Under: Under 136.5 (-118) | Over 136.5 (-110)
In the second round on Thursday, Michigan State held off Maryland, 76-72, to set up a date with Wisconsin. The Spartans and Badgers met twice in the regular season, and the road team won each time. MSU won the first meeting, 86-74, and then fell at home, 70-62. Both teams were in the top 25 at the time.
The Spartans have a balanced crop of scorers, though only Gabe Brown averages double-digit points. MSU has five players who average eight points or better and shoots close to 39% from three-point range as a team. Throw in 15.9 assists per game as a team, and you have a top-40 offense on KenPom. Michigan State's defense lags behind its offense; it allows 68.4 ppg and has given up 80-plus a few times in recent weeks.
Wisconsin lost its final game of the regular season, a stinker to Nebraska, and headed into the Big Ten tourney on a bit of a bad note. The Badgers had won their previous five games before that game, leaving star Johnny Davis injured.
Davis, who leads his team in scoring (20.0) and rebounding (8.1), injured his ankle and had to leave the game. He's expected to play in the tournament. The Badgers' defense grades out slightly better than its offense. It holds teams to 66.5 ppg and averages 71 on the other side of the ball.
The Badgers have the best player in this game. Wisconsin walks away with a victory if he plays anything as he did in the regular season—especially against MSU, where he scored 25 in each game. An early exit from the Big Ten Tourney and back-to-back losses heading into the Big Dance would not bode well for the Badgers. But I think they score more than enough to come out on top and ensure this game hits the over.
BET: Wisconsin -2.5, Over 136.5
Jessica Hill/AP
Big East semifinal: No. 20 UConn (23–8, 3 seed) vs. No. 8 Villanova (24–7, 2 seed)
- Time: 9 p.m. | FS1
- Spread: UConn +2 (-110) | Villanova -2 (-118)
- Moneyline: UConn (+115) | Villanova (-150)
- Over/Under: Under 131.5 (-118) | Over 131.5 (-110)
The Huskies took care of Seton Hall in their first game of the tournament while the Wildcats struggled to hold off St. John’s. Now, these teams meet for the third time this year with a trip to the Big East title game on the line.
The first time around, Villanova won 85-74 at home behind 24 points and 12 rebounds from Eric Dixon. UConn won the second meeting, 71-69.
Connecticut’s offense, led by R.J. Cole, who paces the team in points and assists, is the team’s strength. The Huskies offense is in the top 25 on KenPom and averages better than 75 ppg. Their defense doesn’t fall far behind, coming in at No. 31 on KenPom and allowing just over 65 ppg. UConn has two players who average two or more blocked shots per game and is an elite rebounding team.
Villanova's offense runs through Collin Gillespie, but the team's leading scorer has been slumping over his last five games. The Wildcats' play hasn't fallen off, though. They're 3-0 since their loss to UConn. Villanova has the Huskies beat offensively. The offense ranks in the top 10 on KenPom, and its shooting percentages are strong. Defense is a bigger weakness for the Wildcats, who don't rebound particularly well or cause turnovers often.
This is a very winnable game for UConn. Villanova looks vulnerable after its showing against St. John's, and the Huskies have shown they can hang with this team. I'll take the cushion of a few points in picking Connecticut, and I think these top-25 offenses get the best of each other's defenses and run up the score a bit, similar to the first meeting.
BET: UConn +2.5; Over 131.5
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sport
Pac-12 semifinal: No. 21 USC (26–6, 3 seed) vs. No. 13 UCLA (24–6, 2 seed)
- Time: 11:30 p.m. | FS1
- Spread: USC +6 (-110) | UCLA -6 (-118)
- Moneyline: USC (+200) | UCLA (-300)
- Over/Under: Under 134.5 (-110) | Over 134.5 (-118)
This will be the third time these rivals meet in a month. And it’s the rubber match.
USC won the first match at home, 67-64, thanks to a huge game out of Drew Peterson. And just last week, UCLA evened the series with a 75-68 victory. The Trojans took care of Washington, 65-61, and the Bruins took down Washington State, 75-65, in the Pac-12 quarterfinals.
Offensively and defensively, USC is well-balanced. The Trojans rank 51st on KenPom on offense and 49th on defense. Forward Isaiah Mobley, who leads the team in scoring (14.4), rebounds (8.5) and blocks (1.0), contributes on both sides of the ball. Mobley does have plenty of help in the rebounding department—Southern California is top 10 in that metric.
UCLA grades out much better than its crosstown competitor. The Bruins are 10th overall on KenPom with top-15 grades on offense and defense. They average 76.6 ppg, led by Johnny Juzang’s 16.2 ppg, and hold teams to 64.4 ppg.
This spread is just a little too rich for me, so I'm going with the underdog Trojans. They've shown they can stick with and beat UCLA, one of the top teams in the country, and six points is a big enough cushion for a team of USC's ilk. I expect this game to be more like the first meeting than the second, given each team's recent performances. I like the under here.
BET: USC +6, Under 134.5
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