NCAA Men's Basketball Bets: WCC and CAA Championship Games, ACC First Round

Mar 08, 2022

Bets and analysis for Tuesday's men's college basketball WCC and CAA championship games, along with a pair of ACC tournament bets.

Conference championship week is about to get wild.

The field of 68 is starting to take shape, with five teams already punching their ticket to the NCAA tournament and six more aiming to secure their spots Tuesday night.

No. 1 Gonzaga aims for a three-peat and its ninth WCC title in 10 years when it faces No. 17 Saint Mary's, while the CAA title game pits UNC Wilmington against Delaware.

Conference tournament betting previews: Big Ten|ACC|Big East|Big 12|Pac-12|SEC

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The ASUN (Jacksonville-Bellarmine), Horizon League (Wright State-Northern Kentucky), NEC (Bryant-Wagner) and Summit League (South Dakota State-North Dakota State) also will be crowning champions Tuesday night.

Tuesday also marks the start of the first major conference tournament play, with the ACC hosting its first round. The other five power conferences begin Wednesday.

Let's get to the bets!

Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook

WCC championship game: No. 1 Gonzaga (25-3, 1 Seed) vs. No. 17 Saint Mary's (25-6, 2 seed)

Time: 9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Gonzaga -12.5 (-118) | Saint Mary's +12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Gonzaga (-1000) | Saint Mary's (+550)
Over/Under: Under 141 (-110) | Over 141 (-118)

This won't be a walk in the park for Gonzaga.

The top-ranked Bulldogs face a Saint Mary's squad that handed them their worst loss of the season on Feb. 26, a 67-57 defeat in California.

The Gaels are only one of three teams to beat Gonzaga.

Gonzaga beat Saint Mary's by 16 on its home court in the first matchup, and these teams are meeting in the conference title game for the third time in four seasons.

Both games featured one team running away with the game in the first half. At the half in their win, Gonzaga led 36-23, while Saint Mary's had a 36-21 lead in their victory.

The Bulldogs controlled the first meeting by holding Saint Mary's to just 39 percent shooting, including 29.4 percent from deep. Gonzaga's elite offense shot 54.5 percent from the floor, including 50 percent from three. A good recipe for success.

In the second game, Saint Mary's defense kicked it up a notch, holding Gonzaga below 40 percent from the field and three-point land. The Gaels also outrebounded the Bulldogs after Gonzaga controlled the boards in the first matchup in Washington.

Drew Timme, who scored 25 on 11-of-16 shooting in the first game, had six points on 2-of-10 shooting in the rematch.

This is a rather high line since the underdog just beat the favorite by 10 points not that long ago, but clearly, there's the expectation that Gonzaga will rebound in a big way.

Saint Mary's (18-10-2) has fared better against the spread this year than Gonzaga (14-12-2), and getting 12.5 points seems like a solid betting opportunity.

The under is also the play considering these teams didn't approach 141 in their first two meetings (132, 124), and both often have the under cash.

BET: Saint Mary's +12.5, under 141

William Bretzger / Delaware News Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

CAA championship game: UNC Wilmington (23-8, 2 Seed) vs. Delaware (21-12, 5 Seed)

Time: 7 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Spread: Delaware -2 (-118) | UNC Wilmington +2 (-110)
Moneyline: Delaware (-143) | UNC Wilmington (+125)
Over/Under: Under 133 (-110) | Over 133 (-118)

The CAA almost pitted a five seed against a six seed, but UNC Wilmington narrowly escaped against Charleston to move just one win away from the tournament.

This game is quite intriguing because Delaware is favored despite losing both regular-season games and being the lower seed. UNC Wilmington both the first matchup at home by two points and the road rematch by seven points.

That Delaware is favored is influenced by the underlying metrics.

KenPom doesn't love either of these teams, but Delaware is ranked 143rd while UNC Wilmington ranks 174th. Delaware has a top-100 adjusted offensive efficiency (94), while the Seahawks rank outside the top 170 in both adjusted offense and defense.

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Delaware upset No. 1 Towson to advance and is led by Jameer Nelson Jr., son of Jameer Nelson. He's one of four Blue Hens averaging double-digit points.

This is a tricky game to bet. While UNC Wilmington is 19-10 against the spread this year, one of the best marks in college basketball, it's hard to beat a team three times in one season—especially when the other team has better analytics.

Let's back the upset here, and we're going to back the under since neither team has topped 133 points in the tournament yet. Delaware's games tend to go over, but UNC Wilmington usually cashes the under.

The teams went 1-1 against this total during the regular season.

BET: Delaware -2, Under 133

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

ACC first round: Pittsburgh (11-20, 12 seed) vs. Boston College (11-19, 13 seed)

Time: 2 p.m. ET | ACC Network
Spread: Boston College -2 (-110) | Pittsburgh +2 (-118)
Moneyline: Boston College (-143) | Pittsburgh (+110)
Over/Under: Under 129 (-118) | Over 129 (-110)

Ah, to think of the days when Pittsburgh appeared in Big East championship games seemingly every year.

Now, they're underdogs against a Boston College team that hasn't been relevant in college basketball for more than a decade.

Pitt won the first matchup in January by two points at home, while Boston College won the second by 13 on its home court. The Panthers have lost four straight entering this contest, while the Eagles are losers of three straight.

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Don't let either of these teams get hot!

Both teams finished below .500 ATS this year, and they went 1-0-1 against this total this year, with the first game tying this mark. However, Boston College has topped this total in nine straight games, and Pittsburgh has done so in six straight games.

Let's back the better program and the over/under trends.

BET: Pittsburgh +2, Over 125

ACC first round: Louisville (12-18, 11 seed) vs. Georgia Tech (12-19, 14 seed)

Time: 7 p.m. ET | ACC Network
Spread: Louisville -1.5 (-110) | Georgia Tech +1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Louisville (-125) | Georgia Tech (+100)
Over/Under: Under 135 (-118) | Over 135 (-110)

It's hard to fathom that Louisville is a first-round game with a 12-18 record. What a fall from grace from a once-proud program.

The Cardinals are in an absolute state of disarray and looking to finish out a forgettable season that already included the dismissal of Chris Mack. They have lost four straight and 14 of 16. Yeah, they won't be mentioning this season much in future years.

Despite their terrible season, the Cardinals are favored in this game against the Yellow Jackets—the "hot" team in this matchup because of having won its last regular-season game against Boston College.

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The defending ACC champion, Georgia Tech, has not built off last year's momentum and enters this game having lost seven of nine. Georgia Tech finished top five in the conference the last two years but fell to the 14 seed this season.

Louisville won the only meeting between the teams this year in January at Georgia Tech, but this team is ready to head home. These teams combined for 131 points in their only matchup, and the under cashed in the majority of both teams' games.

Since there isn't a clear recent trend here, we'll back the under.