NCAA Men's Basketball Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview: Purdue Leads Pack

Purdue is the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament but the betting favorite at SI Sportsbook, ahead of top-seeded Illinois.

The Big Ten men’s basketball tournament gets underway Wednesday from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Illinois earned the No. 1 seed by virtue of co-winning the league's regular-season race with Wisconsin on the strength of a 15-5 record. It is the first time since 2005 that the Fighting Illini won the  regular-season crown.

Wisconsin lost out on the top seed after the Badgers were shockingly upset, 74-73, by Nebraska as 13-point home favorites. Purdue, led by Jaden Ivey, slid into the No. 3 seed, while Rutgers locked up the No. 4 seed.

The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook are expecting a close battle for Big Ten supremacy. The rankings are not in agreement with the sportsbooks, though, as No. 3 Purdue is the betting favorite (+188) to win this year’s tournament. No. 1 Illinois is only slightly ahead of Iowa (+400) and Wisconsin (+650) as the second betting choice at +275.

With so many evenly matched clubs, there simply is no easy path for any of the top seeds to make it to the championship game Sunday afternoon.

Big Ten Tournament Betting Odds

Purdue +188
Illinois +300
Iowa +400
Wisconsin +650
Ohio State +1000
Michigan +1100
Michigan State +2500
Rutgers +2500
Indiana +2500
Maryland +10000
Northwestern +10000
Penn State +20000
Nebraska +30000
Minnesota +50000

Check the Latest NCAA Men's Basketball Odds at SI Sportsbook

CONTENDERS

No. 1 Illinois (22-8 straight-up (SU); 13-17 against the spread (ATS); 14-5 Big 10): +300

Illinois snagged the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament after three consecutive  victories over Iowa, Penn State and Michigan. The Fighting Illinois, who are 9-3 over their last 12 games, have burned bettors with a 4-8 ATS mark over that span. Illinois could face two of Indiana, Michigan, Rutgers and Iowa in the quarterfinals and semifinals, and owns a 4-1 record against those clubs. Illinois is a threat to win the Big Ten championship thanks to star big man Kofi Cockburn, who is second in the Big Ten in scoring at 21.0 points per game while leading the conference in rebounding (10.6).

No. 2 Wisconsin (24-6 SU; 17-12 ATS; 15-5 Big 10): +650

The Badgers, who are 7-2 in their last nine games, blew their chance at the No. 1 seed when they were upset by Nebraska on Sunday. The loss could have been even more costly for Wisconsin as star guard Johnny Davis left the game with a lower-body injury and his status for the tournament is in doubt. Davis, who ranks third in the Big Ten in scoring at 20.0 points per game, is also one of best rebounding guards in the country, leading the Badgers at 8.1 rebounds per game. After starting the year 12-5 ATS, Wisconsin has been difficult for bettors to trust by posting a 5-8 ATS mark over their last 13 games. If Davis is forced to miss the Big Ten Tournament, the Badgers chances of taking home the postseason trophy for the first time in 2015 will take a major hit.

No. 3 Purdue (25-6; 13-16-2 ATS; 14-6 Big 10): +188

The Boilermakers, who have lost three of their last seven games to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan, fell to the No. 3 seed. Purdue has struggled with its three-point shooting in recent weeks. After shooting a paltry 22% from deep in the 24-point loss to Michigan, the Boilermakers shot 11.1% from behind the arc in the loss to the Spartans. Purdue’s Championship aspirations will heavily rely upon the talents of point guard Jaden Ivey (17.2 ppg). The supporting cast of Trevion Williams (11.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Zach Edey (14.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg) is a dynamic tandem down low for the Boilermakers. If both can contribute more consistently for Matt Painter’s crew Purdue can easily win the Big Ten Tournament for the first time since 2009.

No. 4 Rutgers (18-12; 13-15-2 ATS; 12-8 Big 10): +2500

After winning four consecutive games in early February, Rutgers lost three of its last five games. Oddsmakers are not giving the Scarlet Knights much respect despite being the No. 4 seed, assigning them massive odds of +2500. Senior Ron Harper Jr. leads the offensive attack, averaging 15.7 points per game on the strength of shooting 39.9% from deep. Despite earning the double bye, Rutgers appears to be overmatched and will likely be underdogs in a potential quarterfinal matchup with Iowa.

Frankie’s Breakdown

The Big Ten conference currently has four teams ranked inside the latest AP Top-25 poll. Any of the top four betting choices could easily emerge and win the tournament. If Davis’ lower body injury for Wisconsin keeps the star from taking part in the Big Ten tournament, then Purdue will have a much easier path to the Championship game on Sunday. If the Boilermakers advance to a potential title game against Illinois, Purdue will have the added confidence of already beating the Fighting Illini twice this season.

The Hawkeyes fell to the No. 5 seed but, in doing so, they may have created an easier path to advance deep. Keegan Murray (23.3 ppg) is a star and he is the player totally capable of carrying a team to a championship. Odds of +400 is solid value on a team that will be favored in both of their games ahead of the semifinals.

Pick: Purdue +188
Value: Iowa +400

2022 Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse; Indianapolis, Ind.

First round —Wednesday, March 9

Game 1: No. 12 Northwestern vs. No. 13 Nebraska | 6 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
Game 2: No. 11 Penn State vs No. 14 Minnesota | 25 min. after Game 1 | BTN

Second round —Thursday, March 10

Game 3: No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Indiana | 11:30 a.m. ET | BTN
Game 4: No. 5 Iowa vs. Game 1 winner | 25 min. after Game 3 | BTN
Game 5: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Maryland |25 min. after Game 4 | BTN
Game 6: No. 6 Ohio State vs. Game 2 winner | 25 min. after Game 5 | BTN

Quarterfinals—Friday, March 11

Game 7: No. 1 Illinois vs. Game 3 winner | 11:30 a.m. ET | BTN
Game 8: No. 4 Rutgers vs. Game 4 winner | 25 min. after Game 7 | BTN
Game 9: No. 2 Wisconsin vs. Game 5 winner | 25 min. after Game 8 | BTN
Game 10: No. 3 Purdue vs. Game 6 winner | 25 min. after Game 9 | BTN

Semifinals—Saturday, March 12

Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Game 12: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner | 25 min. after Game 11 | CBS

BIG Ten tournament championship game —Sunday, March 13

Game 13: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS

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SI NCAA MEN’S COLLEGE BASKETBALL BET REVIEW

2021: SI Betting is hoping to pick right up where we left last season when our NCAA tournament betting plays yielded major financial success, thanks to Alabama (+220), Illinois (+375) and Georgia Tech (+2500) all delivering conference tournament championship victories in the SEC, Big Ten and ACC, respectively.

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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