Analysis and bets for a pair of top-25 matchups featuring No. 8 Providence hosting No. 10 Villanova and No. 16 Tennessee welcoming No. 4 Kentucky.
March is right around the corner and Tuesday night’s college hoops slate brings a pair of top-25 matchups.
In the Big East, No. 10 Villanova heads north to take on No. 8 Providence. It will be the first meeting between the two teams this season, both of which are vying for the top spot in the conference. And in the SEC, No. 4 Kentucky travels south to Knoxville to take on No. 16 Tennessee, which has yet to lose at home.
As always, SI writer Kevin Sweeney joins me to make sense of these matchups and make our picks. Let’s do this.
Season record: 24-28
Guest pickers: 21-14-1
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Nick Wass/AP
No. 10 Villanova (19-6, 12-3 Big East) vs. No. 8 Providence (21-2, 11-1)
Time: 8 p.m. ET | CBSSN
Spread: Villanova -4 (-118) | Providence +4 (-110)
Moneyline: Villanova (-200) | Providence (+155)
Total: Under 131.5 (-110) | Over 131.5 (-118)
This is the first meeting of the season between these two Big East powerhouses, and they’ll play again March 1 on the cusp of the conference tournament. Villanova enters Tuesday’s marquee matchup with three consecutive wins. The Wildcats beat Seton Hall, 73-67, on Saturday at home to extend their winning streak on their own floor to four games. Two of Villanova’s three conference losses have come on the road (Marquette and Creighton). Providence has yet to lose a home game.
The Wildcats have one of the nation's most-efficient offenses, led by Collin Gillespie’s sharpshooting (42.7% from three) and playmaking (team-leading 2.9 assists per game). Villanova is sixth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency. The team takes care of the ball very well and averages the eighth-fewest turnovers in DI (9.8). The Wildcats’ counting stats don’t jump off the page on defense (2.3 blocks per game and 6.4 steals) but they’re stingy. Villanova opponents average 62.2 PPG, the 23rd-fewest in the country, largely because the Wildcats hold opposing teams below 41% from the field.
Providence hasn’t lost in more than a month. Its last defeat came on Jan. 4 against the same team that swept Villanova: Marquette. Since that game, the Friars have rattled off eight straight wins and avenged their loss to the Golden Eagles. Providence has played some close games as of late—four of its last eight games have been decided by five points or fewer, including a 76-73 overtime win against DePaul on Saturday.
The Friars' offense runs through super senior center Nate Watson. He leads the team with 13.6 PPG, while point guard Jared Bynum distributes (4.2 assists per game) and spots up (46% from deep). The advanced numbers are not high on Providence, which is 4-0 against top-25 teams this season. KenPom ranks the team 47th overall with adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies outside of the top 50.
The Friars average 70.9 PPG and yield 64.6 PPG on defense.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Providence +4
Given the disparity between these teams’ home and road records, I’m all over Providence getting a not-insignificant amount of points on their court. The Friars are slightly better ATS (14-9) than Villanova (13-11-1), according to TeamRankings.com, but most importantly they are 7-0 outright as an underdog. Providence has the rebounding edge and has a slight size advantage with Watson down low. The Friars’ good fortune in close games may run out, which is why I like the insurance they’re getting.
Over/Under Pick: Over 131.5
Both teams have been putting up offensive outings in recent weeks that bode well for this game going over. Villanova’s games have hit the over three times in its last five contests and Providence has done so in two of its last three. The biggest threat to this game going over is the Wildcats' defense severely limiting the Friars' offense, but Villanova is allowing more than 73 PPG in February to opponents, 11 points more than its season average.
Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Providence +4
This analytics-vs-résumé battle is super interesting. The numbers haven’t bought into Providence as a top-tier Big East team all year, but the Friars just keep winning. Expect the atmosphere tonight at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center to be rocking, which should be a huge lift for the Friars against the team that the metrics say is the best team in the Big East. To me, the price is just too high to back Villanova—4 points is a ton in a game that will be this low-scoring and against a team that is as confident as Providence is right now. This game is going to turn into an old-fashioned Big East streetfight, and that lends itself well to Providence’s style of play. I’m not sure the Friars can win this one outright, but 4 is too many points not to take them.
Over/Under Pick: Under 131.5
This one is going to be a grind. Neither team wants to do anything in transition, both teams are well-schooled defensively and both teams are happy to let this game be a physical one. I find it hard to believe that the Wildcats are going to come into this great atmosphere and shoot the cover off the ball from deep. This one strikes me as a first-to-65-wins type of ballgame. The only thing that concerns me is how good both teams are at the free-throw line late in games, which could push this one over late.
James Crisp/AP
No. 4 Kentucky (21-4, 10-2 SEC) vs. No. 16 Tennessee (18-6, 9-3)
Time: 9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Kentucky +1.5 (-110) | Tennessee -1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Kentucky (+105) | Tennessee (-133)
Total: Under 140 (-110) | Over 140 (-118)
Kentucky takes its six-game winning streak with it to Knoxville, Tenn., to take on the Volunteers for the second time this season. In the first meeting between these two teams, which was also a top-25 matchup, the Wildcats won, 107-79, behind 28 points from TyTy Washington Jr. UK beat Florida at home on Saturday, 78-57, in a dominant showing as the team continues to push Auburn for the best record in the SEC. Both of Kentucky’s conference losses this season (LSU and Auburn) have come on the road.
Led by forward Oscar Tshiebwe, the Wildcats have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country. Kentucky’s 81.3 PPG is the ninth-highest average in college basketball and it’s fueled by another top-10 mark: 17.1 assists per game. Guard Sahvir Wheeler contributes a conference-leading 7.9 dimes per game.
UK ranks just outside the top 50 in points allowed per game (64.2), though its defensive adjusted efficiency ranking on KenPom is 12.
Tennessee is fresh off a 73-64 win over in-state rival Vanderbilt on Saturday. That victory marked four in a row for the Vols ahead of their rematch with the Wildcats. UT has not lost at home this season, but that will be put to the test against No. 4 Kentucky, which will be the highest-ranked team Tennessee has played this season.
The Volunteers’ guards lead the team in scoring—Santiago Vescovi and Kennedy Chandler each average more than 13 PPG. Tennessee averages a respectable 74.4 PPG, but offense is not the team’s strength. The Vols rank sixth on KenPom in adjusted defense and average 9.9 steals per game. Chandler contributes to that second mark, swiping 2.3 steals per game on his own.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Kentucky ML (+105)
The Wildcats are rare underdogs on the road against the Volunteers. UK is 2-3 straight-up when getting points this season, but won its last two road games as an underdog against Kansas and Alabama. UT has the better ATS record this season and plays so well on its home court, but the Wildcats are playing some of their best basketball since falling to Auburn a few weeks back. That includes an 18-point win over Kansas on the road, where they entered as five-point underdogs. Kentucky can beat teams in a variety of ways with its many weapons on offense and defensive prowess. Tennessee is a great team, but Kentucky is worthy of a No. 1 seed and will prove it in this game.
Over/Under Pick: Under 140
The last meeting between these two teams saw Kentucky beat up Tennessee for a season-high 107 points. I don’t see that—or anything like it—happening again. Both defenses have shut down opposing offenses lately. The Wildcats allowed just 57 and 55 in wins over Florida and Alabama, respectively, while the Volunteers yielded no more than 64 in their last three games. Both of their offenses are better equipped to deal with each other’s stout defense, but I like this to be a relatively low-scoring affair.
Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Kentucky +1.5
Yes, it’s really hard to win at Thompson-Boling Arena. Yes, I got burned betting on Arizona the last time an elite team went into Knoxville and got a seemingly favorable number. But I can’t bet against the way Kentucky is playing right now. Tennessee doesn’t have a big man who can match Oscar Tshiebwe, and Sahvir Wheeler completely controlled the game in the teams’ first meeting back in January. A potentially limited or unavailable TyTy Washington is concerning against this stingy Tennessee defense, but UK has gotten great play from its bench lately.
Over/Under Pick: Over 140
Tennessee is too good on defense to give up 107 points again to this Kentucky team. That being said, that game proved that the Wildcats can score in bunches even against an excellent defense, and because of that it’s hard for me to see this game going under. Tennessee will try to control the tempo and not let this turn into a track meet, but Tshiebwe’s ability to dominate the boards gives Kentucky so many opportunities to get out and push in transition off misses. Expect points in this one.
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