SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo looks to the NFL games garnering the biggest line movement for Week 10.
Sportsbooks around the country once again got the best of square public NFL bettors in Week 9. The Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals not only failed to cover the spread, but lost straight-up as well, killing many teaser and moneyline wagers.
The Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots burned many square bettors as they each won their respective games but failed to cover against the spread. With underdogs going 9-4 ATS, it was easily a second consecutive lucrative NFL week for sportsbooks capped off when the New York Jets (+9.5) covered the big spread on Monday Night.
The respected Vegas Whispers information, shared here only at Sports Illustrated, is hot yet again going (7-2 ATS last nine released plays overall) 4-2 ATS last week in the NFL and now stands at 49-36 ATS in NFL wagering this season. This was joined by an undefeated Saturday in NCAA Football when the information went 2-0 ATS and now stands at 17-12 ATS on the season. In addition , it was once again an extremely profitable weekend for UFC bettors as Casey Olson’s information went 7-2 ATS on Saturday for all SI PRO members and now stands at 181-71-5 ATS (72%) on all wagers.
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Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves.
NFL Week 10 Games ‘On The Move’
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-220) | Carolina (+188)
Spread: TB -4.5 (-110) | CAR +4.5 (-110)
Total: 50.5 Over (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
Game Info: November 15, 2020 1:00 pm ET / 10:00 am PT | FOX
There has been strong support in early wagering for the Panthers in Week 10. This game opened with the Buccaneers (6-3 SU; 4-5 ATS) as 6-point favorites and has since moved against them down to just 4.5-points at DraftKings Sportsbook. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have gone 4-2 SU while more importantly only going 2-4 ATS over that six-game span.
In addition, bettors have fresh in their minds the 38-3 drubbing Tampa Bay suffered at the hands of the Saints on Sunday Night Football in Week 9. On the other hand, Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers (3-6 SU; 5-4 ATS) have covered five of their last seven ATS while losing four consecutive games straight-up. Bettors are expecting the Panthers and their improving play of late to keep this second NFC South matchup of the 2020 season closer than they did back in Week 2 when they failed to cover as 7.5-point underdogs in a 31-17 loss.
According to my Vegas sources, 57% of spread wagers are on the Panthers in early wagering.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Moneyline: San Francisco (-420) | New Orleans (+340)
Spread: SF +9 (-110) | NO -9 (-110)
Total: 50– Over: (-110) | Under: 50 (-110)
Game Info: November 15, 2020 4:25 pm ET / 1:25 pm PT | FOX
The Saints (6-2 SU; 3-5 ATS) have seen the line move steam in their favor after opening as 6.5-point road favorites against their NFC rival San Francisco. After last week’s impressive win on the road over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 3.5-point underdogs, the line has seen a significant move beyond the prime number of a full touchdown.
Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have adjusted the line to a current market offering of New Orleans as 9-point home favorites. Bettors are fading a 49ers (4-5 SU; 4-5 ATS) team laying the points against a Lions team that has lost back-to-back games both SU and ATS to the Packers and Seahawks.
Bettors appear to agree with the move by the oddsmakers as nearly 74% of the early money is in support of the Saints who looked dominant dismantling Tom Brady and the Bucs on Sunday Night football. The 49ers are expecting to be extremely short-handed once again with QB Jimmy Garappolo, RB Raheem Mostert, TE George Kittle and possibly WRs Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Moneyline: Los Angeles (+123) | Miami (-141)
Spread: LAC +2.5 (-110) | MIA -2.5 (-110)
Total: 48– Over: (-110) | Under:48 (-110)
Game Info: November 15, 2020 4:25 pm ET / 1:25 pm PT | CBS
The Miami Dolphins (5-3 SU; 6-2 ATS) are one of the hottest teams in the NFL winning four consecutive games both SU and ATS. The AFC East surging Dolphins posted perhaps their biggest win of the season last week when rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa played superb in the club’s upset 34-31 road win over the Arizona Cardinals. The experts opened the game in Vegas with the Dolphins as 1-point home favorites but have since adjusted the line to Miami as 2.5-points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bettors continue to be burned backing the Chargers (2-6 SU; 5-3 ATS) and are now fading the club at the betting windows for the second straight week. Los Angeles has suffered monumental second half collapses that has led to a 1-6 SU record over their last seven games. The ticket count has seen 69% of spread bets pour in at the betting windows in support of Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to extend their SU and ATS win streak to five in a row.
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Steam-Moves
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati from +9 down to +7.5
*This is due to the potential absence of QB Ben Roethlisberger (due to possible exposure to COVID-19).
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Scoreboards Continue To Light Up In NFL Games
For the second straight week, “Over” bettors expecting more points scored than the oddsmakers were predicting came out way ahead as the games went 8-4-1 to the over on Sunday and Monday. Seven games, once again surpassed the 50-point mark, with the Dolphins and Cardinals leading the way tied with 65 combined points. Bettors are jumping on the ‘Over Train’ in several matchups in mid-week wagering.
Philadelphia / New York Giants 42 up to 44
Buffalo / Arizona 54.5 up to 56
Baltimore / New England 41 up to 43.5
Tampa Bay / Carolina 48 up to 50.5
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