NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting Breakdown

Aug 26, 2022

Derrick Henry is the SI Sportsbook favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year, ahead of Jameis Winston.

Who will be the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year for 2022? The list of options at SI Sportsbook is long, as is the bar for what “comeback” means apparently.

Players on this list range from one that has never played a single regular-season NFL snap to some of the most established stars in the sport.

NFL Awards Betting: Coach of the Year

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow won the award in an upset last season with +100 odds and topped Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, the favorite with -140 odds.

Let’s take a look at the market and see whether a quarterback will win the award for the fifth straight season.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Derrick Henry +300
Jameis Winston +550
Christian McCaffrey +900
Daniel Jones +900
Michael Thomas +1000
Baker Mayfield +1000
Mitchell Trubisky +1200
Marcus Mariota +1400
Chase Young +1600
J.K.Dobbins +1600
Allen Robinson +2000
Chris Godwin +2000
Drew Lock +2000
JuJu Smith-Schuster +2000
Saquon Barkley +2000
DeShaun Watson +2200
Cam Akers +2200
Travis Etienne +2800
Odell Beckham Jr. +2800
Danielle Hunter +3300
Marcus Peters +3300
Robert Woods +3300
Tre’Davious White +3300
Carl Lawson +5000
Raheem Mostert +5000
Will Fuller +5000

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Derrick Henry leads the field with +300 odds and it’s decent odds for a player who was on pace to shatter multiple rushing records before his season was cut short after eight games. Henry still finished the season with the 15th-most total touches.

Tennessee features a run-heavy offense and it’s possible Henry is the unicorn who can return at age 28 and still lead the league in rushing yards. Wouldn’t that blow up some narratives?

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Christian McCaffrey (+900) and Saquon Barkley (+20000) both present incredible value should they stay healthy. Unlike Henry, both Barkley and McCaffrey have dealt with multiple injury-plagued seasons, but unlike Henry, both McCaffrey and Barkley have shown major prowess in the passing game.

McCaffrey had 1,385 yards on the ground and 1,005 through the air in 2019, while Barkley rushed for 1,307 yards and tallied 721 receiving yards in his rookie season in 2018. If either running back returns fully healthy, they will have a major impact.

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Interestingly, each running back’s quarterback is also in the conversation.

Historically, this award has more often gone to a quarterback. Ten quarterbacks have earned the honors with zero running backs taking home the award since 2008. Two wide receivers, one tight end and a safety (Eric Berry) round out the list.

It makes sense to see both Jameis Winston (+550) and Daniel Jones (+1000) at the top of this list and, of the two, I lean toward Jones. If Jones can somehow lead the Giants to a winning record, I think that would go a long way with voters.

QB Props: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

Baker Mayfield (+1000) and Mitchell Trubisky (+1200) also make the list and I like the value. Mayfield will start for the Panthers, while Trubisky appears to have the leg up in the Steelers’ competition, and 10-1 and 12-1 odds, respectively, are nice.

Looking at the wide receivers on this list, I’m skipping Michael Thomas at +1000 odds because he already has a “little bit of a hamstring issue,” according to Saints head coach Dennis Allen and I’m not even a “little bit” surprised.

WR Props: Receiving Yards | Receiving TD | Kupp | Jefferson

I do like Allen Robinson (+2000) in Los Angeles with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. If he takes up the Odell Beckham Jr./Robert Woods role and defenses are worried about stopping Cooper Kupp, Robinson could have a great year.

And, let’s face it, this will be the best QB play he’s ever had.

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Speaking of Woods, he’s my favorite long shot on this list. At 33-1 odds, I’m willing to bet on him having great season in a new offense. The Titans lost star A.J. Brown, and Woods will mostly be competing with rookie Treylon Burks.

I can see Woods surprising us all.