Stacks, foundational players and value picks to help you build the perfect daily fantasy lineup.
Living in the daily game world for any sport requires a lot of work with little reward for the casual player unless the stars align for one magical day. Most daily owners need to decide whether to be a grinder or a swing-for-the-fences player. One path keeps you alive for more days of action with the idea of building your bankroll slowly. The other has a donation feel while offering a pot of gold at the end of a distant rainbow.
Since the daily sites started offering the million-dollar overall prize, I’ve been trying to find my get-out-of-jail-free card. The goal is to handicap the main football slate on Sunday and invest in the best possible combination of foundation players. If my key players have success, I will be in the hunt with many teams. Each football season, I expect to be in the mix in four or five weeks.
All players listed are for the main slate of games on Sunday.
Quarterback Stacks
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Last week, the Jaguars defense held the Bills to only a pair of field goals after their previous seven opponents scored 206 points (29.4 per game). Over the past two weeks, Allen gained only 5.8 yards per pass attempt despite success in his completion rate (67.4). This season, he only has five completions of 40 yards or more while gaining 7.0 yards per pass attempt (7.9 in 2020). Before last week, Allen averaged 33.86 fantasy points over his previous five contests. In 2020, he passed for over 300 yards in both matchups against the Jets (312/2 and 307/0) with success in the run game (14/57/1 and 11/61).
New York surprisingly ranks 15th defending quarterbacks (21.68 FPPG). Over the past three games, their defense allowed 17 touchdowns and six field goals over 34 possessions, leading to 130 points. In addition, offenses drilled them for 16 touchdowns by running backs over eight games. The Jets will be facing a quarterback with running upside for the first time all season.
Allen ranks as the top quarterback for the third straight week, but Buffalo may beat the Jets with the run game. The Bills can’t afford another loss if they want to pave their path toward a Super Bowl. The combination of Stefon Diggs and Allen hasn’t come in over the first half of the year. The Bills’ offense also gets a slight boost, with Dawson Knox expected back on Sunday.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
In the first quarter of last week’s game, the Cowboys failed to convert on fourth down twice on the Broncos’ side of the field. As a result, Dallas fell behind early, and their defense allowed Denver to control the clock with the run game. Prescott finished with his lowest completion rate (48.7) of the year while gaining only 5.9 yards per pass attempt. He had a floor of three touchdowns in five of his first six starts with two dynamic games in passing yards (403/3 and 445/3). Dallas expects to have Michael Gallup back on the field this week.
Atlanta ranks 28th in fantasy quarterback defense (23.96 FPPG). Four quarterbacks scored over 30.00 fantasy points (Jalen Hurts – 322/3, Tom Brady – 282/5, Taylor Heinicke – 333/3, Tua Tagovailoa – 320/4). The Falcons' only success defending quarterbacks came against Daniel Jones (305/0), Zack Wilson (195/0), Sam Darnold (195/0), and Trevor Siemian (249/2). Note: for all quarterback yards, I combine passing and rushing. Atlanta has yet to allow over 300 yards passing while showing some risk vs. running quarterbacks (39/248).
Prescott should rebound in a big way in this matchup, and his price point does offer some salary-cap relief. The Falcons’ offense should do enough to force Dallas to score over 30 points to win the game. A six-player game stack looks viable while leaving enough room to finish the roster with a decent defense and two value players. With Ezekiel Elliott nicked up, Tony Pollard may prove to be an excellent value at running back.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
During its seven-game winning streak, Green Bay scored between 24 and 27 points in the last five of those victories. However, without Rodgers behind center last week against the Chiefs, the Packers scored only one touchdown. Over the first nine games, Green Bay played only three games at home, where Rodgers delivered 777 passing yards with 10 touchdowns. His best success in fantasy points came in Week 2 (261/4) at home against the Lions.
Seattle has played well defending quarterbacks over the past three weeks (PIT – 226/1, NO – 262/1, JAC – 249/1). The Seahawks have eight sacks over their previous six matchups. From Weeks 2-5, their defense allowed over 300 passing yards in each game (TEN – 347/0, MIN – 323/3, SF – 322/3, LAR – 365/1).
Rodgers has one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, plus an explosive combination of options in the run game. In addition, he’ll have Marquez Valdes-Scantling back on the field to help in the deep passing game. Seattle should be much better offensively, with Russell Wilson expected to start on Sunday. At times, the downside of Rodgers' explosiveness comes from long drives on many plays, leading to a fast-moving clock. At the very least, a fantasy owner needs to find a way to get Davante Adams in the starting lineup while not dismissing a Rodgers stack.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
After a couple of quiet days (207/1 and 232/9), Herbert finished Week 9 first in quarterback scoring (35.20 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. He has two other impact games (297/4 and 427/5). Twelve of his 20 touchdowns came in his best three starts. Herbert needs to get Mike Williams untracked after struggling in four of his last five matchups (1/11, 2/27, 2/19, and 2/58). Keenan Allen played better over the last two matchups (6/77/1 and 12/104), but he is listed as questionable this week with a knee issue.
Minnesota brings scoring firepower on offense while showing disaster risk in two games vs. quarterbacks (ARI – 431/4 and BAL – 386/3). The Vikings will pressure the quarterback (27 sacks) while creating nine turnovers over their last four matchups. They rank 19th in quarterback defense (22.23 FPPG).
SI Sportsbook lists this matchup with the second-highest over/under (53.5) on the board on Sunday. The key to the scoring upside of this matchup is the big plays by both teams. Wide receivers have 110 catches for 1,501 yards and 10 touchdowns (13.6 yards per catch) against Minnesota. The Chargers’ defense allows 4.9 yards per rush, with eight runs gaining over 20 yards.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa’s offense heads into the weekend with multiple questions in their receiving corps. Rob Gronkowski looks to be out for a couple more weeks. Antonio Brown is getting closer to game action, but he may need another week before suiting up. Chris Godwin came out of the bye with a foot issue, putting him at risk to play on Sunday.
Tom Brady already has five games with four touchdowns or more, but four of those outcomes came at home. He passed for more than 400 yards in two games (432/1 and 411/5) and more than 300 yards in two other matchups (379/4 and 375/4). In addition, Brady is on pace to set a career-high in completions over 20 yards (83). His worst showing came in New England (269/0).
Washington has the worst pass defense in the NFL (28.68 FPPG). They allowed over 27.00 fantasy points in six matchups to quarterbacks (NYG – 344/2, BUF – 387/5, ATL – 303/4, NO – 305/4, KC – 428/2, GB – 291/3).
There is a chance that a couple of the Bucs’ receivers become value plays this week (Tyler Johnson and O.J. Howard). However, more info is needed before investing in Brady on Sunday.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Over the three games without Wilson in the starting lineup, DK Metcalf caught 14 of his 18 targets for 197 yards and three touchdowns. Tyler Lockett played well in one of his three matchups (2/35, 2/12, and 12/142). Wilson averaged only 27 passes in his first four starts, leading to 1,102 combined yards and 10 touchdowns. He gains 9.6 yards per pass attempt with strength in his completion rate (72.0) on the year. The Seahawks’ offensive line allowed 26 sacks over eight games.
Green Bay moved to eighth in fantasy quarterback defense (20.37 FPPG) thanks to holding quarterbacks to less than 17.00 fantasy points in four of their past six matchups. The Packers allow only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, with no team passing for more than 285 yards.
Wilson looks to be an against-the-grain option this week despite having two top wideouts. Seattle should try to slow down the game, and their defense has lost the time of possession (on the field for over 35 minutes) in every game this year. Green Bay should play from the lead, forcing Wilson to the air to win the game.
Foundation Players
Two of the top options with which to start your daily roster in Week 10 are Davante Adams and Najee Harris. These players were listed in my DFS report this week. On Thursday, Harris popped up on the injury report with a foot issue, which is a must-follow heading into Sunday. I want to have both of these players in my perfect lineup this week.
Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ offense picked up the scoring pace over their past four matchups (31, 30, 31, 42 points), thanks to 18 touchdowns over their last 47 possessions. Taylor was the second-best running back in Week 9 (190 combined yards with two touchdowns and two catches). He extended his scoring streak to six games (nine touchdowns), pushing him to second in running back scoring (20.82 FPPG) in PPR leagues. Taylor has gained over 100 combined yards over his last six starts while averaging 17.2 touches.
Jacksonville allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs in five of their eight matchups, lifting them to 13th in running back defense. They give up 3.8 yards per rush, with backs scoring nine times. The Jaguars struggled against the run in two contests (41/160/2 and 36/184/3). Derrick Henry is the only running back with an impact game (29/130/3).
Taylor is in beast mode, with an excellent combination of scoring and big-play ability. However, his ceiling is restricted by his rotational role with Nyheim Hines. Jacksonville will game plan to slow down the run, but eight men in the box invites a long run from Taylor if he breaks free at the second level of the defense. In the mix at the top end despite his rising salary.
RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Game flow and a knee issue led to Ezekiel Elliott being on the field for a season-low 53 percent of the plays run by the Cowboys last week. The injury looks to be a bruise, and the Cowboys expect him to play on Sunday. Pollard had minimal action over the past two games (60 combined yards with two catches), and his only score came in Week 2 (140 combined yards with a touchdown and three catches). The health of Elliott makes Pollard a viable cheat at running back. Based on his price point, he still needs to score over 19.00 fantasy points to pay off.
Atlanta sits 26th in running back defense (27.60 FPPG). They allow 4.4 yards per carry, with backs scoring nine touchdowns. The Falcons have some risk defending running backs in the passing game (52/400/2).
WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
The pivot off of Najee Harris this week is Johnson. Over his seven starts, he has 45 catches for 530 yards and three touchdowns on 69 targets. The Steelers gave him double-digit targets in five games (10, 12, 13, 13, and 13). His last score came in Week 5. The loss of Chase Claypool further solidifies his high-volume opportunity.
Wide receivers have 90 catches for 1,379 yards and seven touchdowns against the Lions. Low pass attempts (27.75 per game) help Detroit’s ranking vs. wideouts (12th). Four players (Deebo Samuel – 9/189/1, Davante Adams – 8/121, Darnell Mooney – 5/125, Justin Jefferson – 7/124, and Cooper Kupp – 10/156/2) have over 100 yards receiving against Detroit.
TE Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Last week, I picked on the Eagles’ defense for my choice at tight end in my perfect lineup. My mindset was right (11/126/2), but the Chargers spread their tight end production over three players. As a result, Philly slipped to last defending tight ends (18.83 FPPG – 67/597/8). They’ve allowed 36 catches for 350 yards and four scores on 39 targets over the past four weeks.
Fant missed last week’s game, and he has more competition for targets with Jerry Jeudy back in the starting lineup. His best game came in Week 6 (9/97/1) at home in a chaser game against the Raiders. He is on pace for 74 catches for 640 yards and six touchdowns on 106 targets. Denver could be without three starting linemen this week, forcing Fant to help on more plays blocking. His salary fits his upside, but he’ll need a touchdown to be viable.
Value Options
The strength in the top-end options at running back and wide receiver will force fantasy owners to find low-priced players to fill the back end of their roster. Injuries point to Tyler Johnson and James Washington seeing a bump in playing time and chances. Both players face defenses with risk in coverage in the deep passing game.
Johnson plays in the better offense with a top quarterback. If Chris Godwin can’t go, he becomes much more attractive. I sense that Antonio Brown will miss another game, but Johnson would only be a WR3 for Tampa if Godwin suits up.
Washington hasn’t had a playable game since Week 13 in 2020 (2/80/1). However, he owns the wheels to beat a defense over the long field with scoring ability. In 2019, he flashed in three games (6/90/1, 3/98/1, and 4/111/1) over four matchups. Pittsburgh had him on the field for 81 percent of their plays in Week 3 and Week 4, but Washington managed only seven catches for 89 yards on 10 targets. I’m going to bank on him beating Detroit for a long score in Week 10.
Michael Gallup should return this week. His salary requires only a 5/50/1 day to work. Generally, I like to give a player a week of action before taking him for a daily game ride. On the positive side, Gallup plays in a high-scoring offense, with Amari Cooper still not at 100%.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a fourth possible cheat at wide receiver. The Packers had him on the field for 54 percent of their plays vs. the Chiefs. The downgrade to Jordan Love at quarterback led to only two catches for 19 yards on two targets. Over his first three games, Aaron Rodgers struggled to get him the ball (6/76/1 on 16 targets), but he did show an uptick in production in Week 3 (3/59/1).
Devin Singletary and D’Ernest Johnson may emerge as value running back options this weekend due to injuries.
Zack Moss left last week’s game with a concussion. If he can’t go, Buffalo should rotate in a second back. Singletary only touched the ball 38 times over his last four games, leading to 154 yards and 14 catches. His ceiling remains extremely low in scoring (only three touchdowns over his previous 24 matchups). Singletary needs close to 20 touches to be in play in the daily games.
The Browns have one of the best rushing teams in the league, and their backs already gained 1,753 combined yards with 17 touchdowns and 47 catches. Johnson dominated the Broncos in his only start (168 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches). Nick Chubb landed on the Covid-19 list earlier this week. He has enough time to be cleared by Sunday, putting any investment in Johnson on hold until there is a better update.
Here’s my perfect lineup for Week 10:
My four studs should have a floor of 80 points with an explosive ceiling. I’m hoping Pittsburgh can score a minimum of four times vs. the Lions, but two of those touchdowns must come via the pass to Johnson and Washington. Harris’s role in the passing game also gives him a chance to hit on a passing touchdown. If my three cheat players (Washington, Fant, and Johnson) score over 45 fantasy points, this team will be in the hunt for a big payday.
More fantasy coverage:
- NFL DFS Week 10 Picks, Plays & Values
- Week 10 Rankings and Stat Projections
- Week 10 IDP Waiver Wire
- Top Fantasy Busts According to ADP
- Fantasy Impact: OBJ Signs With Rams
Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings in the high six-figures. He has been providing in-depth, analytical breakdowns for years all while helping his subscribers to countless titles and winnings across season-long & DFS. An inaugural inductee of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn can teach you how to prep like a champ!