NFL Midseason: Surprises, Story Lines, Super Bowl LVII Picks

The undefeated Eagles and struggling Packers highlight the first half of the season, while the Bills’ championship dreams and the return of Deshaun Watson will be stories in the second half.

With nine weeks in the books, we have reached the NFL’s official midseason point. To mark the occasion, we are looking back at the first half of the season and zooming ahead to the playoffs, a totally original idea you will not see replicated anywhere else on the internet. We’ve already assembled our panel for the midseason power rankings, dished a mock draft 2.0 for everyone whose favorite GM hasn’t already traded away their next decade’s worth of picks and now present our midseason predictions. And coming soon, Albert Breer will survey executives across the league for their takes on various awards.

Below our MMQB staff will offer up some of the biggest first-half surprises, intriguing second-half story lines and new Super Bowl predictions. You can check out our preseason predictions, and we’ve also included them so you can easily see who has already had to walk away from an embarrassing September pick.

Biggest first-half surprises

Albert Breer: While my first instinct is to point to the Packers’ collapse, the Steelers’ downturn is right up there with it. Yes, it’s their first year post–Ben Roethlisberger. But based on the strength of that program, and that it had been a while since Roethlisberger was bringing top-end play to the table, I figured they’d at least be able to tread water through the early stages of the season. Instead, they’re 2–6, with one win attributed in large part to a long-snapper injury, and noncompetitive losses to the two elite teams they’ve faced thus far. There’s time to turn things around, and T.J. Watt coming back should help. But that they’re in a place where the development of Kenny Pickett and getting reps for George Pickens are priorities, and positioned themselves as a seller at the trade deadline, is pretty jarring. Mostly because you’d have to go back into the middle of the Bill Cowher era to find such a time in Pittsburgh. New GM Omar Khan will have his work cut out for him in his first full offseason in charge.

Conor Orr: I think the biggest first-half surprise has to be the fact that the Colts fired a respected, winning coach for Jeff Saturday because Jeff Saturday doesn’t have any “fear” and doesn’t “turn to the analytics.” That press conference Jim Irsay gave was one of the most bizarre situations I’ve come across in 13 years of covering professional football. The cynic in me thinks this is laying the groundwork for some larger plan, and if it’s not, how much sadder is the whole thing? The Colts had better hope they at least come out of this with a draftable option at quarterback. Saturday needs an absolute miracle to pull this off, but if he is the kind of person who jumps into a situation like this willingly, do we think he’s the kind of person who can understand how absolutely hopping mad every single person in that facility is?

Greg Bishop: Geno Smith. Were this a statistical examination alone, the Seahawks’ quarterback would fit here, easily. He has vaulted Seattle to a 6–3 start in a year many (like, um, me) tabbed them to win six games, at best, overall. His 73.1% completion percentage leads the NFL. His 2,199 passing yards aren’t shabby, nor his command of the Seahawks offense, nor are his 15 touchdown passes compared to four interceptions.

But this isn’t simply about Smith’s play this season compared to last season. This is about the resurrection of his career: the fall from high draft pick to the NFL fringe; the four teams played for in four seasons from 2016 to ’19; the fortitude to overcome all that, all the injuries, doubts and both fair and unfair labels affixed to his career. The biggest first-half surprise could simply be that Geno Smith is starting in the NFL again. But what has actually taken place is an even bigger surprise to everyone but Smith, from where he has the Seahawks positioned, to his future, which suddenly looks a whole lot more bountiful than it did six months ago. Look for the Seahawks to attempt to extend Smith, short-term, because of how well he has played all year—and everything he showed them before it started.

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Michael Rosenberg: There is no simple explanation for what is happening in Green Bay. It’s a rare situation where so much that went right has suddenly gone wrong. Aaron Rodgers won the last two MVP awards and is now having the worst season of his career. His receivers look overmatched. They haven’t played a single game that makes you think, “Well, if they can just play like that consistently …” Sometimes quarterbacks get old fast. It happened to Peyton Manning in Denver and to Brett Favre in Minnesota. This Packers season looks unsalvageable, but the rest is still going to be interesting. We’ll find out whether Rodgers had a bad stretch or is suddenly—I can’t even believe I'm typing this—a bad quarterback.

Andrew Brandt: I’ll take the Eagles. We knew they would be good; we did not know they would be this good. Many felt that they overachieved last year in making the playoffs before being outclassed by the Buccaneers in the wild-card round. And rumors swirled this offseason that they were in play for Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson in looking to replace Jalen Hurts, proving the adage: “Sometimes the best deals that you do are the ones that you don’t.”

The Eagles are steamrolling teams, usually in control by halftime, and it is hard to find a couple of losses, at most, on their remaining schedule. General manager Howie Roseman has had a Midas touch with every acquisition, whether leveraging other teams’ cap issues for cornerbacks James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson or taking a big swing and hitting a home run with A.J. Brown. They have top-five offensive and defensive lines, building from inside out and well suited for cold-weather football. The team is sound in every area and the one question mark coming into the season—Hurts—could well be the league’s MVP. It is looking increasingly like the Eagles will have to win two home games in January to play in the Super Bowl. In a year when we are looking for merely “good” teams, we may have a great one.

John Pluym: The Vikings. I don’t think anyone saw 7–1 coming after a 3–5 start in 2021, not even this lifelong fan of the team. Consider this from last season: Minnesota was 6–8 in one-score games, including 1–2 in overtime. The Vikings also allowed touchdowns on 32.4% of opponent drives in the final four minutes before halftime or the end of games (the NFL average was 12%). And that 32.4% rate is No. 686 of 686 teams since at least 2000. Yes, I love statistics because they explain a team’s success or failure. Under new coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings have won six consecutive one-score games. He has stressed to his players becoming “situational masters.” And Kirk Cousins told Albert Breer this in his Monday column on why the Vikings are able to win close games now: “I do think our coaching staff does try to emphasize it every week, talking about situations in meetings and really trying to play the game before the game in terms of what can come up at the end of half, end of games.”

Gary Gramling: Probably Russell Wilson fully committing to a dead-on impression of Tom Savage circa 2016. It’s only slightly hyperbolic to say Wilson insisting he play strictly from the pocket would be like Tom Brady telling his next team he’s strictly a sprint-option quarterback. Wilson certainly has legitimate reasons to want to play strictly from the pocket—you take fewer hits and stand a better chance of being able to run and dance and walk comfortably later in life. But Wilson’s lack of height prevents him from being able to operate capably full-time in that style. That was always the case, in spite of years of the “Let Russ Cook” hashtag (and when the Seahawks let him cook it ultimately tasted like something fished out of the dumpster behind Arby’s). And it’s what required the Seahawks to regulate the offense with a heavy dose of run game throughout Wilson’s time there (which they’re now freed from doing with Geno Smith under center). If you watch the tape, the Broncos’ offensive staff is providing plenty of answers for Wilson in the form of wide-open receivers, too many of whom he simply never sees; Teddy Bridgewater would have this team at five or six wins right now instead of them being 3–5. Wilson will either have to go back to the things that made him a quality starter—moving pockets, improvisational playmaking—or Denver is going to be staring down a lost half-decade and a revolving door of general managers and head coaches along the way, because with that contract the quarterback isn’t going anywhere, and no one can win games with him playing this style.

Mitch Goldich: Rather than pick out one team—because there are always surprises year-to-year—I think the league-wide trend of offense being down is truly a shocker. For years now we have all known that the NFL is perfectly happy shaping rules to help offense, believing that people like watching high-scoring games with lots of fantasy points. League officials came right out and said it earlier this year when debates were raging over roughing-the-passer penalties. It also felt like enough new, young superstar QBs were being introduced each year to keep the pipeline stocked and make sure every team had a set plan going forward. And then … 2022 happened.

Through nine weeks, points have dipped to 21.8 points per team per game. That’s the lowest total since 21.7 in 2017, and just the second time below 22.0 since ’10. (And these were boosted by a 23.3 average in Week 9. If I had written this a week ago, I’d be writing about the lowest since ’10.) This came after a recent uptick to 24.8 in ’20 and 23.0 in ’21. It’s strange! There are plenty of factors, and smart people have cited the types of defenses being used to defend these star QBs, a lack of offensive line depth and coaching, and a struggling class of second-year QBs failing to take over across the league. But why is any of that new this year? In a year that was supposed to be pretty normal (without COVID-19 protocols impacting preseason work or meeting time), it just hasn’t been. I’ll be curious to see whether these first nine weeks were a small-sample-size blip or if it’s a lasting trend. As we saw in Week 9, it may already be on the way to normalizing.

Intriguing second-half story lines

Albert Breer: The return of Deshaun Watson, who has been suspended the first 12 weeks after he was named in dozens of lawsuits filed against him by massage therapists alleging sexual harrassment and misconduct. When he breaks the huddle for the first time in Houston on Dec. 4, he’ll be taking his first snap in an even 700 days. He’ll be working with new teammates and in a new offense. He’ll be in a stadium where he spent four years as the home team’s quarterback. And the debate over his place in the league as a player and person will rage that week. From a football standpoint, if the Browns can win a game or two through a challenging stretch before then (at Miami, at Buffalo, vs. Tampa Bay), then they’ll still be in the race. Their run game is among the NFL’s best. Their skill group around him is good enough. Will Watson have to knock off rust? Can he be the player they gave up all that money and all those picks for right away? It’ll be fascinating to see how those questions are answered. And then, of course, there will be the discussion of what Watson’s been sued for, the climate around the games as a result of that and how he handles questions associated with it. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot coming on this one.

Conor Orr: An intriguing second-half story line is going to be the positioning for Sean Payton, which is probably already underway. I wonder if we’ll see a few more coaches start to act a little more conservatively, or a little less so, in order to stave off their owners’ interests in the Super Bowl–winning head coach, who is still under contract in New Orleans but is planning to return to the sidelines somewhere else after one quick image-boosting season on TV. We’ve seen how little concern or respect ownership has for the position league-wide, with two in-season firings already and potentially more coming before Christmas. How many of those teams are on Payton’s wishlist? How many teams’ wishlists is Payton on?

Greg Bishop: Can the, ahem, older quarterbacks summon the usual magic? For years now, NFL fans (and sports writers in search of familiar angles) could count on one thing in an NFL season. Aging, not-yet-AARP-eligible quarterbacks would enjoy more success, later into seasons, year after year, than ever before. Of course, that was bound to end eventually. Maybe that end is here, to be viewed over the season’s final weeks.

Tom Brady is famously 45. His Bucs are, in an unfortunate bit of symmetry, 4–5. Aaron Rodgers is 38. His Packers are 3–6, and he’s hoping they don’t match his age in the weeks upcoming. Matt Ryan, brought to Indianapolis to help the Colts make a playoff push at age 37, has already been benched. The Colts are 3-5-1.

But what if an older QB can summon that old magic once more? Either way, it should make for some good viewing down the second half, because either an era truly, really, this-time-we-mean-it will end this season, or someone will summon that magic. Both ways, it’s must-see TV. And if we’re taking bets, the bet here is that Brady will summon another run, but not another Super Bowl or another title. In which we could get the run and the end of an era, all at once.

Michael Rosenberg: I was skeptical about Hurts as an NFL starter, though I suppose most people were. He is a fascinating test case for the modern NFL. He isn’t a great passer. He isn’t really an electrifying runner. And yet he is a big reason the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. Hurts throws well enough, runs well enough, has a ton of talent around him, and—this is probably the key to the whole deal—he has a knack for figuring out what will work best on a given play without trying to do more. That means throwing to the right receiver, but also knowing when to take off running. His success provides a blueprint for other multifaceted quarterbacks who aren’t classic pick-you-apart-with-precision passers. (Looking at you, Justin Fields.) Teams will start throwing different looks at Hurts to try to slow the Eagles. It will be up to him and coach Nick Sirianni to counter.

Andrew Brandt: The Packers’ five-game losing streak happened before an upcoming three-game stretch of games—against the Cowboys, Titans and Eagles—that they are expected to lose. With the mounting losses, the drumbeat will grow to turn the team over from Rodgers to Jordan Love, the quarterback picked in the first round in 2020. As I know so well, moving away from a Hall of Fame quarterback and the face of the franchise for 15 years will not be easy, and will certainly be stressful for the front office, but at some point it has to happen. And if/when it does, it will render moot the question of whether Rodgers returns in ’23 (frankly, I was surprised he returned in ’22). But as frustrating as it has been, Packers fans must savor this moment. They are soon entering a place they haven’t been in 30 years, more than a generation: being piloted by a quarterback who is not one of the all-time greats. The Packers have avoided uncertainty at quarterback for decades, but reality will, at some point, set in in Titletown.

John Pluym: The MVP race. I think it’s wide open and any number of players could win it, including one on defense. But let’s start with the offensive players. A wide receiver has never won MVP, but Tyreek Hill could change that. He’s on pace to become the first receiver with 2,000-plus yards, and he’s elevated the play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. And speaking of quarterbacks, there’s no doubt Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have to be at the top of the list. But there is another quarterback who has his team undefeated at 8–0. I love Hurts. His escapability has been off the charts. And he’s not a bad passer, either, completing almost 66% of his passes for 2,042 yards. The Eagles still have games at home against the Titans and at the Cowboys, plus they play the Giants twice, including the season finale at home. Who knows if that game is for 17–0, the first unbeaten regular season since the Patriots’ 16–0 mark in 2007. Finally, Micah Parson deserves to be in the conversation. The Cowboys’ all-world linebacker plays all over the field and has 8.5 sacks and a league-leading 36 pressures. Double those numbers over the second half and would they be enough to win MVP? It’d be tough, considering only two defensive players have won the award: Vikings DT Alan Page in 1971 and Giants LB Lawrence Taylor in ’86.

Gary Gramling: No one has noticed—in large part because they frequently play for a regional audience in the 1 p.m. ET window and public schools have failed to emphasize the importance of film > stats—but Trevor Lawrence is on a trajectory to join the Mahomes/Allen/Justin Herbert/Lamar Jackson/Joe Burrow class of 20-something perennial MVP candidates. Here’s the bad: Lawrence has made a handful of mistakes in the red zone and, in a stroke of bad luck, all of them have been capitalized on by the defense (what he wouldn’t give for the rash of dropped interceptions a certain other Florida quarterback has benefitted from this year). Lawrence also lost four fumbles in the rain in Philly, a game in which the Jaguars otherwise outplayed the Eagles, and his one sheer dud game came in front of a national audience, two Sunday mornings ago in London against Denver. But watch (actually watch) Lawrence and you’ll see a quarterback who moves exceptionally well in the pocket, is rapidly improving as a processor, flashes tremendous touch over the linebacker level, has the ability to make throws with bodies hanging off him and, when needed, can gain chunks with his legs. He’s a little overaggressive, but better too aggressive than too timid for a young QB. He’s lifting his system and middling supporting cast around him as much as any young quarterback outside the aforementioned Big Five.

The Jaguars have been one of the dozen or so best teams in the NFL—they, like their quarterback, haven’t been able to catch a break along the way. Though with the Colts and Texans in tank mode and the Titans walking a tightrope every week, maybe Lawrence and the Jaguars can steal the AFC South after all.

Mitch Goldich: I will go with the race for new quarterbacks. Last year’s draft class was nothing special, and we saw Kenny Pickett (20th) was the only one drafted before the middle of the third round. This year’s class is supposed to be much better. Kevin Hanson’s midseason mock draft had three QBs in the first five picks. So there will be some scrambling for draft position. I know the Tank for Tua era has taken an unsavory heel turn with the Brian Flores lawsuit, but in general I enjoy watching people twist themselves into knots covering a race to the bottom. Remember when Gregg Williams called a Cover-0 blitz and everyone went on a rampage about how the Jets had cost themselves Trevor Lawrence? Let’s see what kind of coverage there is when the Texans, Panthers or Lions pull out a close game and half their fan base is disappointed.

The other area where this is intriguing is in the QBs who are trying to hold onto their starting spots in the league. Some are clear bridge quarterbacks in their current locations, like Marcus Mariota and the Andy Dalton/Jameis Winston platoon. But others like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones and Daniel Jones seem to be playing for their futures on the teams that drafted them. It’ll be fun to see how they handle it and what the QB musical chairs situation looks like. The last two years were all about the QBs potentially on the trade market; this year we add fun prospects to the mix. There’s a lot to monitor based on how the next nine weeks shake out.

Super Bowl LVII predictions

Albert Breer

Preseason pick: Bills 27, Packers 24, Josh Allen MVP

Midseason pick: Bills 34, Eagles 17; Josh Allen MVP

So long as Allen’s elbow is O.K., and that’s obviously a big topic this week, I think the last two weeks will serve as a powerful wake-up call for Buffalo, which seemed to take its foot off the accelerator in the second half of a Week 8 win over the Packers, and saw that malaise carry over into Week 9 at the Meadowlands against the Jets. It really does look like things got too easy for Buffalo—and maybe the Bills’ focused some as a result. But the fact remains that no team is playing with the margin for error that Buffalo is right now. And to me, going through what they did over their last two games should be valuable for a team that’s played the first half of the season without its best defensive player (Tre’Davious White), is adding one significant offensive piece (Nyheim Hines) and maybe another (Odell Beckham Jr.), and will be plenty hungry come January. That they went through it without losing the top seed in the AFC is a nice bonus. As for the NFC, well, it’s time to dismount from my preseason pick on that end. Philly’s got a lot of the same strengths it did in 2017, and being as good as the Eagles are along the lines of scrimmage is something that will last and will travel in the playoffs.

Conor Orr

Preseason pick: Ravens 28, Packers 24; Lamar Jackson MVP

Midseason pick: 49ers 24, Ravens 21; Christian McCaffrey MVP

Let’s get wild. The 49ers are the one team I don’t want to see in the playoffs right now, especially since there is so little evidence as to how they will—and ultimately could—use Christian McCaffrey. Ultimately, you need a bit of a chaos agent in the postseason, just like the Bengals last year. Even the Rams used some of their superstar players differently. I am not backing off my Ravens Super Bowl selection, even if I am adjusting the outcome slightly.

Greg Bishop

Preseason pick: Packers 34, Bills 31; Aaron Rodgers MVP

Midseason pick: Bills 42, Eagles 21; Josh Allen MVP

First, a little housecleaning. Is it possible to slap my August self? I’m not quite sure what I was thinking. Picking Green Bay now seems wildly incorrect, and I fault myself for not accounting for how the loss of Davante Adams—among other factors—would impact the Packers’ prognosis.

To that end, I’ll stay with the Bills in the AFC. I could argue that the Bills and the Chiefs are the top two teams, period, in pro football. I won’t, for now, because of how the Eagles have looked through the first half of a truly dominant (so far) season. It’s hard to examine their offense and see a single weakness; instead, it’s just strength after strength after strength, particularly with the offensive skill players and a bad-ass defensive line unit. I like them over any of the other NFC contenders. In fact, I’d say every other team is a significant cut below what the Eagles have shown so far.

But there’s no reason to pick against the Bills now, not when I see their losses as fluky, correctable and close. The bet here is they’ll wiggle past the Chiefs and wallop the Eagles to seize a Super Bowl title that’s a long time coming.

Michael Rosenberg

Preseason pick: Packers 27, Bills 23; Aaron Rodgers MVP

Midseason pick: Bills 30, Cowboys 20; Josh Allen MVP

The Eagles have been great, but I am wary of teams that dominate the first half, especially when they weren’t expected to be this good and their quarterback has yet to win a playoff game. The Cowboys are lurking at 6–2, even though Dak Prescott was hurt for most of the season. They have the game’s best defensive chess piece in Parsons and a roster that, top to bottom, rivals Philadelphia’s. As for the AFC ... the three teams that look like championship threats are Buffalo, Kansas City and Miami, and I put them in that order. Buffalo is the deepest and most balanced, and I don’t think Miami in particular wants to play outdoors in Western New York in January, which it would probably have to do. So the Bills are the pick to bring Buffalo its first Super Bowl win—against the team that handed the Bills two of their four Super Bowl losses.

Andrew Brandt

Preseason pick: Packers 37, Chargers 27; Aaron Rodgers MVP

Midseason pick: Eagles 33, Titans 17; Jalen Hurts MVP

In a season where the constant questions every week have been either Who is any good? or Who can you trust? there has only been one consistent answer: the Eagles. They have not had a game—as have the Chiefs and Bills—where you scratch your head and wonder about them truly being elite. And speaking of the Chiefs and Bills, I think that while they dazzle with highlight plays from their star QBs, it is the plodding Titans that will come out ahead in the AFC. I know, I know: Ryan Tannehill does not inspire confidence (and the Titans won’t let Malik Willis pass the ball) but there is something about this team that can tame the high flyers. And they may even be able to tame the Eagles in the Super Bowl … for a while. But the Eagles can play any kind of game you want: high-scoring, low-scoring or anything in between; they’ll be fine. They are such a talented team that Jalen Hurts does not even need to be great to win MVP. There are so many pieces around him that he just needs to fit in, play his RPO game and watch the success continue. It is the Eagles time; it is now, it will be in February (Super Bowl) and it will be again in April (they have the Saints’ draft pick next year, which is currently No. 6). Quite a time to fly.

John Pluym

Preseason pick: Buccaneers 31, Bills 28; Tom Brady MVP

Midseason pick: Eagles 35, Chiefs 32; Jalen Hurts MVP

What can I say other than I wanted Brady to win an eighth championship and retire for good after an amazing career. An eight title, too, would have tied him with his former coach Bill Belichick with eight rings. But that prediction seems like a long time ago. Here we are nine weeks into the season and I really like this Eagles team. They are the best all-around team in the league and the recent acquisition of Robert Quinn could solidify that defense. Fly Eagles Fly!

Gary Gramling

Preseason pick: Chargers 31, Packers 28; Justin Herbert MVP

Midseason pick: Bills 34, Cowboys 24; Josh Allen MVP

The Bills are the best team in the NFL, and the Cowboys are the second-best, so ... with all due respect to the Eagles—who are also wonderful!—I’m not sure a plus-15 turnover differential through eight games is in any way sustainable. (In fact, I’m certain it is not.) And right now for Philly, that’s the difference between being elite and being very good. With Dak Prescott back and playing at an extremely high level, I believe Dallas will edge out the Eagles, with the 49ers being the true wild-card in the NFC as a team that might end up taking off in the season’s second half.

In the AFC, the Bills outclassed their opponent in each of their first seven games, so there’s no need to overreact to last week against the Jets (Hey, Buffalo lost to the Jaguars 364 days earlier and still came within 13 seconds of hosting the AFC title game!). The Chiefs could unseat them (though I think they’ve become too reliant on Patrick Mahomes magic), as could the Bengals assuming Ja’Marr Chase returns at full strength, the Ravens if they get healthy or the Chargers if they ever get serious about designing and calling an offense for Justin Herbert. But, objectively speaking, the Bills and Cowboys are football’s two best teams, and Josh Allen is the best player between those two teams. So there you go.

Mitch Goldich

Preseason pick: Ravens 36, Packers 31; Lamar Jackson MVP

Midseason pick: Ravens 27, Eagles 24; Lamar Jackson MVP

Am I analyzing the last nine weeks objectively, or trying to show confidence so that if I prove to be right I can claim I never wavered? Would you look at me differently if I admitted one or the other? I still like the Ravens coming out of the AFC. In September, I had them as the third seed, winning playoff games at No. 2 Kansas City and then No. 1 Buffalo. So it would be silly for me to say this season has looked different from what I expected. I still love the roster, the matchup problems they create, the way John Harbaugh coaches the team and the singular talent of Lamar Jackson. The Eagles feel like the obvious pick in the NFC right now, based on how they’re playing, the likelihood of homefield advantage and the fact that the teams we’re accustomed to seeing in the NFC playoffs might not even make them. While I would personally enjoy the Andy Reid vs. Philly matchup, give me a week of “Jackson and Hurts are the future of NFL quarterback play” columns, with Baltimore coming out on top in a close one.

More NFL Coverage:

• The Jeff Saturday Hiring Is a Crushing Defeat for Many Coaches
• What Winning Football Means in the Jets/Giants Orbit
• MMQB Week 9: Kirk Cousins and Tyreek Hill Win Big, Much More
• The Packers’ Offense Is Damaged, and Aaron Rodgers Is Acting Like It