Breaking down Austin Ekeler's props, odds and how to wager each bet.
In fantasy football and sports proposition betting it is always prudent to target high volume players in elite offenses. In 2022, the Chargers have Super Bowl aspirations thanks to possessing a top-five offensive attack.
A powerful passing game consisting of quarterback Justin Herbert and wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is complemented by one of the NFL’s best all-around running backs in Austin Ekeler. The sixth-year veteran, who amassed 1,558 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns in 16 regular season games in 2021, will once again be Los Angeles’ top option in the backfield.
Running Back Props Series: Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC
Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
The former Western Colorado standout, who is among the top receiving backs in the NFL, has averaged 78.7 receptions over the last three seasons. Injuries led to Ekeler only playing in 10 games in 2020 or that average would easily be higher. Fellow running backs Isaiah Spiller, Larry Rountree and Joshua Kelley pose as viable threats to vulture snaps and production.
Despite the strong possibility for statistical regression, the addition of guard Zion Johnson in the first round of this past April’s NFL Draft does create value in one of his wagering markets exceeding oddsmakers projections.
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Austin Ekeler Player Prop Bets
Rushing Yards, 805.5: Over (-115) | Under (-115)
Ekeler is the club’s RB1 atop the depth chart, and my projections have him being treated as one of the league’s true three-down backs. It is shocking to discover that the longest rush of his career is only 41 yards, but with opposing defenses being forced to respect the Chargers lethal passing game expect him to showcase his breakaway ability this season facing less eight-man fronts.
To put this projection of 800.5 rushing yards in perspective, 20 running backs in the NFL surpassed this total last season. Despite rumors that Los Angeles would like to prevent him from repeating 200-plus carries for a second straight season, exceeding this low total is certainly still attainable.
BET: OVER 805.5 rushing yards (-115)
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Rushing Touchdowns, 8.5: Over (-115) | Under (-115)
After just scoring nine rushing touchdowns combined in four seasons in the NFL, Ekeler exploded in 2021 scoring 12 times on the ground. Playing in a Chargers a pass-heavy offense in 2022, Ekeler will be hard pressed to match last year’s rushing touchdown production.
Due to his prowess in catching passes out of the backfield, the veteran back has scored more receiving touchdowns than rushing touchdowns in four of his five seasons. Fantasy owners and sports bettors should expect a return to that trend and consider Ekeler’s rushing touchdown output from last season an outlier. The elusive Ekeler is such a dynamic weapon on screen passes it is hard to envision back-to-back seasons of considerable rushing touchdown production.
BET: UNDER 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-115)
Rushing + Receiving Yards, 1,400.5: Over (-115) | Under (-115)
Ekeler is one of the top running backs in fantasy football with PPR formats due to his prominent role in the passing game. The 27-year-old has surpassed this total yards from scrimmage projection in two of the last three seasons. Injuries in the 2020 season limited his yardage total to just 933, but if we factor in 93.3 yards per game over the six games he missed, he would have exceeded 1,400-plus yards in three consecutive seasons.
Bettors need to consider the other running backs on the roster as viable threats prior to making wagering investments, Spiller, who was drafted by the club in the fourth round, ran for 2,993 yards and scored 26 total touchdowns while also excelling in the Texas A&M passing attack hauling in 74 passes in three seasons. Kelley, who has only amassed 642 total yards and two touchdowns in 24 games, has been the buzz of Chargers training camp.
The presence of Kelley and Spiller will keep Ekeler from exceeding this 1,400-plus total yard projection - a demand reserved for only six other running backs in the NFL this season by oddsmakers.
BET: UNDER 1,400.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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