NFL Player Props: Davante Adams Bets Breakdown

Aug 29, 2022

Breaking down Davante Adams’s player props for his first season with the Raiders.

The Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams connection led to 69 touchdowns over their last 87 games in Green Bay.

Adams’s opportunity (614 targets over 57 games – 10.8 per contest) ranked near the top of the league over the past four seasons. However, Adams missed 10 games over the previous five years, so he isn’t a lock to suit up for all 17 games in 2022.

· 2018 – 111/1,386/13 on 169 targets
· 2019 – 83/997/5 on 127 targets
· 2020 – 115/1,374/18 on 149 targets
· 2021 – 123/1,553/11 on 169 targets

Over this four-year span, the Packers passed for 17,471 yards and 138 touchdowns. Adams accounted for 30.4% of their passing yards and 35.5% of their passing touchdowns. In comparison, the Raiders finished with similar passing yards (17,358) while struggling to deliver impact touchdowns (92) via the pass.

Derek Carr will undoubtedly be better with Adams in the starting lineup, but he must improve on delivering passes for touchdowns. He finished last season with career highs in completions (428) and pass attempts (626). In addition, his completion rate (68.7) ranked highly over the past four years.

Here are the betting props for Adams in 2022.

Receptions: 99.5

Three times over the last four seasons, Adams caught more than 110 passes (111, 115, and 123) while averaging 15 games played. In 2019, he was on pace for 111 passes for 1,329 yards and seven touchdowns but Adams missed four games.

The last time a Packers wideout (Jordy Nelson) signed with Las Vegas, it didn’t work out as planned. Nelson led Green Bay in receiving in 2013 (85/1,314/8), 2014 (98,1,519/13), and 2016 (97/1,257/14), but he struggled to make plays over the next two seasons (53/482/6 and 64/739/3) while paired with Carr.

NFL Awards Betting: Coach of the Year | Comeback Player of the Year | Defensive Rookie of the Year

The state of the Raiders’ offense is a much better place in 2022, and Adams is still on the right side of 30. Over the past three seasons, the top receiver for Las Vegas caught a minimum of 90 passes (Darren Waller – 90/1,145/3 (2019) and 107/1/196/9 (2020) – Hunter Renfrow – 103/1,038/9 (2021)).

Unfortunately, their wideouts ranked poorly in catches twice over this stretch while showing growth last season.

· 2019 – 145/1,858/13
· 2020 – 155/2,351/14
· 2021 – 223/2,889/16

Waller’s health is probably the key to Adams hitting the over in his projected catch total. With the Raiders having three viable top-end receiving options in Adams, Waller and Renfrow, the better side to play with Adams’s catches is the under.

Based on my projections, this play won’t be decided until Week 18.

Bet: Under 99.5 catches

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Receiving Yards: 1200.5

Adams gained 12.1 yards per catch with Green Bay, which falls in line with receiver yards betting prop when viewing his expected catch total (99.5). Over the past three years, the Raiders’ wideout averaged 12.81, 15.17, and 12.96 yards per catch.

Adams gained 20 yards or more on 67 of his last 432 receptions (15.5%), with 16 of those plays reaching the 40-yard mark. Carr completed 175 passes for 20 yards over the previous three seasons (15.4%), in line with Adams’s last resume with Green Bay.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: GB | MIN | DET | CHI | Division Odds

The bottom line with his receiving yards is that if Adams reaches his expected catch total, he should finish on the overside of this prop bet. However, based on my thoughts on his catches, I expect him to fall short in receiving yards.

Bet: Under 1200.5 yards

Receiving touchdowns: 10.5

Based on his scoring history (0.793 touchdowns per game) over the past six seasons, Adams would reach paydirt 13.5 times over a 17-week schedule.

In his career, 38 of Adams’s 111 touchdowns (34.2%) came from 10 yards or less. From the 10-yard line or closer, Rodgers had a completion rate of 59.9% (336-for-561), leading to 231 passing touchdowns.

In comparison, Carr, over the same length of the field, saw his completion rate slip to 51.2% (54.3% in the red zone) with 98 touchdowns (145-for-283).

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In the end, the change at quarterback for Adams will cost him some in close scores, so my play with him in touchdowns is on the under.