Analyzing Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s prop bets involving his passing and rushing touchdowns and passing yards.
Fresh off an excellent showing in the postseason, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the betting favorite at SI Sportsbook to win NFL MVP.
Can Allen continue his MVP-caliber play despite losing Brian Daboll, his only offensive coordinator since entering the NFL in 2018? Oddsmakers, bettors and fantasy managers are aligned that Allen will not experience a drop off in production as Ken Dorsey makes the move from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator.
Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Tom Brady | Justin Herbert
The AFC East will offer stiff challenges this season as the Patriots will be stronger in Mac Jones' sophomore season, the Dolphins will be more explosive with Tyreek Hill joining Jaylen Waddle and the Jets made major roster additions on both sides of the ball. The improved division demands that a Bills offense that ranked third in the the league in scoring (28.4 points per game) continues to produce at an elite level.
Sportsbooks are offering several intriguing player proposition markets involving one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Let’s take a deeper dive.
Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook
Passing yards : 4400.5
Over (+100) | Under (-120)
The dual-threat quarterback averaged 259.2 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game in 2021. Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite at SI Sportsbook and those hopes rest upon the talents of Allen and the potential for continued success with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in the passing game.
The tandem combined for 1,774 yards and 16 touchdowns last season, but it’s Davis’s postseason production that has fantasy managers and bettors the most excited. When NFL fans last saw the emerging third-year talent, he was torching the Chiefs for eight receptions, 201 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the divisional round.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
Mix in tight end Dawson Knox, who tied for the league-lead in receiving touchdowns (nine) at his position, and the potential for Allen to surpass his career-high in passing yards (4,544) is immense.
A deeper dive reveals that nine of the Bills’ victories last season were by 17-plus points, which left little reason for Allen to throw late in games. Playing in a more competitive AFC East, bettors should expect Allen to throw more in the second half of games.
Allen, who owns +1000 odds at SI Sportsbook to lead the NFL in passing yards, has surpassed this passing projection the last two seasons and he will extend that streak.
BET: Over 4400.5 passing yards (+100)
Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
Passing touchdowns : 35.5
Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Allen tallied 36 and 37 passing touchdowns, respectively, over the last two seasons and there is little reason to believe he won’t meet or exceed that production in 2022.
The former Wyoming standout, who threw multiple touchdowns in 13 of 17 games (76.5%) last season, does not need to take a big step forward in order to surpass this projection. In last season’s playoffs, Allen exploded for nine touchdown passes in matchups against the division rival Patriots (five) and Chiefs (four).
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On a broader scope, Tom Brady is the SI Sportsbook betting favorite (+550) to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns, followed closely by Allen and Justin Herbert at +600 odds. With the development of Isaiah McKenzie in the slot, combined with the additions of veteran wideout Jamison Crowder and tight end O.J. Howard, there will be a strong propensity for passing plays inside the red zone.
Matchups against the Rams, Dolphins (twice), Chiefs, Vikings, Packers and Bengals support the potential of high-scoring affairs as all seven games have look-ahead game totals listed above 47.5 points.
BET: Over 35.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Rushing Touchdowns : 6.5
Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Allen is ranked as the near-consensus top fantasy quarterback in 2022 due to his ability to supplement his gaudy passing stats with impressive rushing ability.
The talented signal-caller finished with the third-most rushing yards (763) among all quarterbacks last season, behind only Jalen Hurts (784) and Lamar Jackson (767).
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Despite a career-high 122 rushing attempts, Allen saw his thee-season streak of at least eight rushing touchdowns snapped after scoring only six times on the ground.
Buffalo’s coaching staff realizes its hopes of its first Super Bowl appearance since 1994 requires the need to limit the amount of hits on its best player. Expect a second consecutive season of regression in Allen’s rushing production.
BET: Under 6.5 rushing touchdowns (-110)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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