Analyzing Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s touchdowns, passing yards and interceptions prop bets.
After winning the NFL Rookie of the Year Award in 2020, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert only continued to grow in his sophomore season.
Herbert tallied a career-best 5,014 passing yards (second only to Tom Brady) and 38 passing touchdowns (third-best in the league).
Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Tom Brady | Josh Allen
Can Herbert continue this meteoric rise in his third season and second with head coach Brandon Staley? Las Vegas seems to think so.
Let’s take a closer look at Herbert’s player prop bets and whether to bet on the over or the under in various categories.
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Passing yards : 4700.5
Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Herbert led the Chargers to a 9-8 record and a third-place finish in the AFC West last season, and his passing stats were among the best in the league. Herbert averaged 294.9 passing yards and 2.2 passing touchdowns per game.
Well, guess what? The AFC West looks even more stacked this year, with quarterback Russell Wilson taking over in Denver and the Raiders adding another weapon in wide receiver Davante Adams for quarterback Derek Carr. Throw Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs into the mix, and there should be plenty of shootouts.
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN
Lots of shootouts equals lots of yards.
Herbert enters his third season of chemistry with Keenan Allen and deep threat Mike Williams and, barring injury, he should exceed this passing yards total. He’s a +700 favorite at SI Sportsbook to lead the league in passing yards for a reason.
BET: Over 4700.5 passing yards (-110)
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Passing touchdowns : 36.5
Over (-110) | Under (-110)
This one is a little harder to predict. Herbert finished with 38 passing touchdowns last year, but this could easily swing either way with Austin Ekeler and the other backs getting plenty of goal line chances. Herbert had a 5.7% TD rate in 2021, which was a big step forward from a 5.2% rate which resulted in 31 touchdowns his freshman year.
Here are the quarterbacks that finished with 37-plus TDs in 2021: Brady, Matthew Stafford, Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott and Mahomes. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow didn’t even meet this mark. I think Herbert can beat this number, but 37 touchdowns is a lot for any quarterback. I think the safer play is the under.
Herbert’s +600 odds at SI Sportsbook to lead the league in passing touchdowns are tied for second, behind only Brady.
Bet: Under 36.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
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Interceptions : 13.5
Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Finally, interceptions.
Herbert threw 15 picks in 2021 with a 2.2% interception rate, a higher rate than Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Ben Roethlisberger.
If the Chargers are going to be in a lot of shootouts, that means Herbert is putting the ball in the air more often. There’s going to be a lot of opportunity for mistakes. Don’t forget, Stafford threw 17 regular-season interceptions on his way to a Super Bowl win.
I’m taking the over here and it has nothing to do with how good I think Herbert will be. Hebert is a stud.
Bet: Over 13.5 interceptions (-110)
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