Breaking down Tyreek Hill’s receptions, yards and touchdowns prop bets.
Over the last four seasons, under the guidance of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill gained 5,247 yards with 343 catches and 46 touches while missing five games. Last year, he set career highs in catches (111) and targets (159). On the downside, Hill gained just 11.2 yards per catch (third year of regression – 17.0, 14.8 and 14.7).
RB Props: Rushing Yds | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC | Ekeler | Harris
QB Props: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
WR Props: Receiving Yards | Receiving TD | Kupp | Jefferson
Hill is no longer with the Chiefs after being traded this offseason to the Dolphins. Miami’s wideouts finished last season with 209 catches for 2,237 yards and 14 touchdowns on 328 targets but netted only 10.7 yards per catch.
Here’s a look at Hill’s betting props this season.
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Receptions: 80.5
Hill finished with at least 87 catches in three of the last four years. The Chiefs gave him nine targets per game over this span, leading to a 66.1% catch rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has a reasonable completion rate (66.2) over his first 23 games in the NFL, but he struggled to make plays (6.6 yards per pass attempt). Miami leaned on rookie Jaylen Waddle (104/1,015/6 on 141 targets) in his rookie season last year, showing the potential of the WR1 in the Dolphins’ offense.
NFL Awards Betting: Coach | Comeback Player | Defensive Rookie | Offensive Rookie | Defensive Player
The summer reports have been positive on the development of Tagovailoa and his chemistry with Hill. The Miami combination of Chase Edmonds, Cedrick Wilson, Mike Gesicki and Waddle gives the Dolphins better weapons to move the ball but more competition for targets for Hill. In my latest projections, I have Hill on a path for 97 catches for 1,232 yards and 10 scores as I have faith that Tagovailoa lives up to his draft pedigree (fifth overall in 2020) this season.
BET: Over 80.5 receptions
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Receiving Yards: 1025.5
Based on his sportsbook total for catches (80.5), oddsmakers expect Hill to gain 12.7 yards per catch. Hill averages 13.8 yards per catch during his career with more than one reception per game gaining more than 20 yards.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
Last seasons, the Bills and Patriots ranked first and third in the league versus wide receivers, respectively, pointing to four challenging matchups in yards. I expect regression in pass coverage by New England after losing top cornerback J.C. Jackson to the Chargers. Bills top cornerback Tre’Davious White will be slowed early in the season with his recovery from a torn ACL.
The bottom line with Hill is that he will get open and make big plays. I respect Tagovailoa more than most, pointing to a winning opportunity in receiving yards.
BET: Over 1025.5 receiving yards
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Receiving touchdowns: 8.5
Despite having Hill projected to score 10 touchdowns, this prop is the closest of all of his potential plays. Miami’s wide receivers only have 41 touchdowns over the last three seasons (14, 13 and 14) while having much weaker wideouts.
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For Hill to reach the over in his receiving scores, Tagovailoa must throw close to 30 scores with Dolphins wide receivers approaching 20 touchdowns. I believe.
BET: Over 8.5 receiving touchdowns
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