NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs Prevail, Colts Win Big

Kansas City takes the top spot after an overtime win against the Chargers, while Indianapolis has fixed mistakes that cost them games early in the season.

This is the third time this season that I’ve had to endure the nightmare that is compiling power rankings, and I’ve already said my piece about the absurd nature of this exercise and those who fill their diapers as a response to it. So rather than devote and more time and effort to an intro section no one will read anyway, two reminders: (1) Win-loss records and playoff results are what actually matter when it comes to determining the season champion so there’s no need to shed tears over these rankings, and (2) chances are, your favorite team is not and was not as good as you thought it was. Sorry about that!

THE SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10–4)

Last week: Win at Los Angeles Chargers, 34–28 (OT)
Next week: vs. Pittsburgh

One week ago they had to go across the country on a short week to face one of the hottest quarterbacks in football without their best defensive lineman. To quote Monty Burns…

2. Green Bay Packers (11–3)

Last week: Win at Baltimore, 31–30
Next week: vs. Cleveland (Saturday)

They’re still more likely than not to get their two best defensive players—CB Jaire Alexander and edge Za’Darius Smith—back in the lineup in plenty of time for the playoffs. The only thing that should keep Packers fans up at night is a defensive performance like the one we saw on Sunday in Baltimore; the defense repeatedly failed to stay disciplined and contain Tyler Huntley, and failed to take away either of the, almost literally, two pass-catchers Huntley utilized (Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, who combined for 27 targets on 39 throws). This is a defense that fundamentally failed in the NFC title game in each of the last two seasons, and for the first time since Joe Barry took over as defensive coordinator we got an acute reminder that that is still the most likely cause of any disappointing playoff exit for this team.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8–6)

Last week: Win vs. New England, 27–17
Next week: at Arizona (Saturday)

This team is as good as anyone in the trenches—on both sides of the ball—and they’re no longer plagued by the bizarre red-zone mistakes (or, I guess, ill-timed kicker injuries) that cost them games early in the year. The question mark is how much they can trust Carson Wentz, who’s been very good when playing in structure, but—despite his physical gifts—as prone as ever to meltdowns on second-reaction plays.

4. Dallas Cowboys (10–4)

Last week: Win at New York Giants, 4–10
Next week: vs. Washington

I had—shamefully—forgotten about DeMarcus Lawrence (who has missed most of the year) until Sunday, when he lined up inside Micah Parsons and, singled up on a guard, got to Mike Glennon and forced an interception. This defense will have enough in January, and we know they can run the ball. The question, considering his performance over the past month, is Dak Prescott. In my opinion, he threw the ball better on Sunday but was too often out of rhythm. Which is, maybe, better than just being frequently off-target?

5. New England Patriots (9–5)

Last week: Loss at Indianapolis, 27–17
Next week: vs. Buffalo

It’s going to be an interesting month for Mac Jones, who didn’t throw the ball in Buffalo, didn’t play well in Indy (though the flat-footed red-zone TD, perfectly placed despite pressure in his face, in the fourth quarter was a wonderful throw). Now, a guy who played high school football in Florida and college football in the SEC will have to play multiple games in the elements if this team is getting to the Super Bowl. Aside from that, this team has everything it needs to make a deep playoff run.

T-6. Buffalo Bills (8–6)

Last week: Win vs. Carolina, 31–14
Next week: at New England

I’m not sure they can go into Foxboro and win with a defense that isn’t great against the run and—with the forward pass presumably an option for the Patriots this time around—a secondary missing Tre’Davious White. However, I also don’t think an AFC East title is a prerequisite for this team making a deep playoff run. Their strength is the quarterback, their weaknesses are rush offense and rush defense. They might be better off getting out of the elements of The Ralph and doing their thing on the road.

T-6. Los Angeles Rams (10–4)

Last week: Win vs. Seattle, 20–10
Next week: at Minnesota

It was an underwhelming performance on Tuesday against a not-very-good division rival, but you can give the Rams a pass considering the reschedule wackiness. But they look like they’re past their late-November, work-the-new-faces-in slump, and for the first time Sean McVay heads into January with a bona fide superstar quarterback on his side.

T-6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10–4)

Last week: Loss vs. New Orleans, 9­–0
Next week: at Carolina

The Chris Godwin loss is brutal, not only because of his pass-catching role but because of his run-game value as an elite blocker on the perimeter. Bruce Arians responded by once again humiliating himself, welcoming back Antonio Brown one year after trying (and failing) to preserve his dignity upon Brown’s initial signing in Tampa, when Arians proclaimed “he screws up one time, he’s gone.” This time, Arians doubled down on the empty tough guy talk (he swore, that’s how you know he’s a tough guy), but this time around it was directed toward people who criticized the decision to go back on his word. You know, critics like the many, many people Brown has wronged over the years, and who feel he has to at the very least show a modicum of contrition before some goober like Arians—apparently not confident in his ability to assemble a working offense with merely the greatest quarterback of all-time, the greatest tight end of all-time, one All-Pro receiver and a top-five offensive line—became the latest in Brown’s orbit to step in as an enabler. Anyway, I rank the Bucs tied for sixth.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (8–6)

Last week: Win at Denver, 15–10
Next week: vs. Baltimore

Zac Taylor is asking Joe Burrow to operate a 10-year veteran kind of offense, and do it behind a leaky interior offensive line. Burrow is responding with an MVP-caliber performance to this point. It is a rough schedule down the stretch, but this team is absolutely good enough to make a run in January.

10. Los Angeles Chargers (8–6)

Last week: Loss vs. Kansas City, 34–28 (OT)
Next week: at Houston

The only legitimate criticism of Brandon Staley’s fourth-down aggressiveness is that you wish the passing game were more aggressive attacking downfield on the first three downs. Defensively, do they have enough outside of Joey Bosa in the trenches to stay out of shootouts in what’s now, essentially, playoff football?

THE DARKHORSE THREATS

11. San Francisco 49ers (8–6)

Last week: Win vs. Atlanta, 31–13
Next week: at Tennessee (Thursday)

This isn’t the 2019 edition—the cornerback play is a potentially fatal flaw—but Jimmy Garoppolo is playing the best football of his career and the trio of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk is going to be a nightmare to get onto the ground come January.

T-12. Tennessee Titans (9–5)

Last week: Loss at Pittsburgh, 19–13
Next week: vs. San Francisco (Thursday)

It’s been good news/bad news since the Derrick Henry injury. The bad news is that Ryan Tannehill has really slid back, which has something to do with injuries to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones but also has a lot to do with those intermediate windows, the ones that blow wide open on play-action when Henry is on the field, shrinking. In six games without Henry, Tannehill has posted a paltry 5.87 yards per attempt with a 4-to-7 TD/INT ratio (he was 8.31 YPA and 65-to-19 as the Titans starter prior to that). The good news is that Mike Vrabel has found solutions with this defense, with just like Jeffery Simmons and Kevin Byard masking the off-the-scrapheap-types peppered throughout the starting lineup. It’s a team that stole a couple games (most prominently one gifted by Matthew Stafford in L.A., and one gifted by disastrous officiating and Carson Wentz in Indianapolis) and gave away a couple of games to bottom-of-the-league opponents, losing the turnover battle 4–0 in upset losses to Pittsburgh and Houston. Fumbles tend to be more of a fluky than a fundamental problem, but this is where we note they’ve fumbled a staggering 15 times, losing seven of them, over the past four games.

T-12. Arizona Cardinals (10–4)

Last week: Loss at Detroit, 30–12
Next week: vs. Indianapolis (Saturday)

Back when I first wrote power rankings this season, I had the Cardinals higher than the betting because I believe between Kyler Murray and Vance Joseph, there’s always a way. That was despite a number of red flags in the Cardinals’ peripheral numbers at the time—near-perfect performance on fourth downs on both sides of the ball, an 80% fumble-recovery rate, incredible red-zone efficiency, and Murray, who had a subpar completion percentage on downfield throws his first two seasons, hitting 67% of his passes of 15-plus air yards, which would be by far the highest mark of all-time. It turns out all those completely unsustainable rates were, well, completely unsustainable. Making matters worse, Kliff Kingsbury’s strength as an offensive coach is dictating favorable matchups for his star weapons, and his best weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, is out. They have 10 wins, so they’ll make the postseason, and they still have Murray and Joseph to make things work. But right now this is a team that needs every bounce to start going their way again.

T-12. Cleveland Browns (7–7)

Last week: Loss vs. Las Vegas, 16–14
Next week: at Green Bay (Saturday)

They did everything they had to do to thread the needle on Tuesday afternoon—save for Chase McLaughlin pushing one at the end of the first half (though then you’re talking butterfly effect stuff with the Raiders’ second-half approach if it isn’t a two-possession game). Winning out still gets them into the playoffs. Even 9–8 gives them a chance since they’d own tiebreakers over Cincinnati and Baltimore.

T-12. Minnesota Vikings (7–7)

Last week: Win at Chicago, 17-9
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Rams

It’s never fun to be playing a divisional rival on the road, and Soldier Field is a particularly difficult venue due to the slow track and, occasionally, the elements. But it’s a bit concerning that the Vikings couldn’t muster more offense considering the Bears’ promotional giveaway was allowing the first 100 fans in attendance to play snaps in their secondary.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (7–7)

Last week: Win vs. Washington, 27–17
Next week: vs. New York Giants

Tuesday night was a double-digit-point victory that was not as close as the final score indicated. Because they still get Washington and the Giants one more time—and might wrap against a Cowboys team with nothing to play for—this team has the inside track at a playoff spot. That’s a testament to Nick Sirianni and his staff, and especially to Jalen Hurts, the quarterback his own front office never seemed to believe in.

NOT GOING AWAY YET

17. New Orleans Saints (7–7)

Last week: Win at Tampa Bay, 9–0
Next week: vs. Miami (Monday)

Watching how the expansive Taysom Hill/Alvin Kamara-led run game complements a defense that is often dominant, there will be no shortage of regret over the four starts (and resulting four losses) Sean Payton gave to Trevor Siemian, particularly since three of those were very winnable games. The path to the postseason is still there though, considering they finish with the Dolphins and Panthers at home before finishing up in Atlanta.

18. Baltimore Ravens (8–6)

Last week: Loss vs. Green Bay, 31–30
Next week: at Cincinnati

John Harbaugh has earned Coach of the Year honors even if this team doesn’t win another game—to be playing meaningful football in January with the injury issues they’ve had is nothing short of exceptional. But when you’re missing your MVP quarterback, and absurdly shorthanded at the reactionary spots (offensive line and defensive backfield), there’s only so much you can do.

19. Denver Broncos (7–7)

Last week: Loss vs. Cincinnati, 15–10
Next week: at Las Vegas

When you decide defense plus ball control is your formula, it’s a narrow path to victory that typically requires the defense not just stopping the opponent, but taking the ball away in the process. That’s been the case with Denver: 6–0 when they get multiple takeaways in a game, 1–7 when they don’t.

20. Las Vegas Raiders (7–7)

Last week: Win at Cleveland, 16–14
Next week: vs. Denver

They’re hanging around with a chance to play themselves into the postseason, which is a testament to the players and remaining coaches. But (on the field), the front four’s early-season dominance has proven to be something of a mirage (it’s a fine group, just not all-world) and this team has been done in by stunningly inefficient red-zone play on both sides of the ball.

HANGING BY A THREAD, BARELY

21. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1)

Last week: Win vs. Tennessee, 19–13
Next week: at Kansas City

Sunday’s win over the Titans was both a big win that kept the Steelers in playoff contention and a reminder that, to beat even a second-tier team, the Steelers need a lot of things to go their way. Earlier in the season, it was punt-block touchdowns that beat the Bills and kept them in it against the Chargers. On Sunday, it was a 4–0 turnover advantage, including three takeaways (two fumbles and a deflected interception) in the last 16 minutes that keyed their comeback. The truth is: Pittsburgh’s offense is an utter mess and, due to the absence of Tyson Alualu and Stephon Tuitt along with some really poor linebacker play, incapable of stopping the run. The path to victory—starting next week in Kansas City—must be paved by T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and the defense creating turnovers on a consistent basis. And that’s no way to live.

T-22. Washington Football Team (6–8)

Last week: Loss at Philadelphia, 27–17
Next week: at Dallas

I’m not sure if America could handle another postseason berth for this Washington team, even if the quarterback situation is much better than it was a year ago.

T-22. Miami Dolphins (7–7)

Last week: Win vs. New York Jets, 31–24
Next week: at New Orleans (Monday)

It hasn’t been a murderer’s row of offenses they’re shutting down, but they’re all professionals, right? And it’s been more than enough to carry along an offense that’s been . . . let’s be nice and say a bizarre mix of ultra-conservative yet still turnover-prone.

24. Seattle Seahawks (5–9)

Last week: Loss at Los Angeles Rams, 20–10
Next week: vs. Chicago

A double-digit loss and ugly Russell Wilson performance against the Rams is nothing new for this franchise. The losing season is now assured, and it’s really tough to see a way forward for a team with little draft capital and a ton of roster holes.

IT’S STILL PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL

T-25. Detroit Lions (2-10-1)

Last week: Win vs. Arizona, 30–12
Next week: at Atlanta

They never deserved to be lumped in with the league’s three bottom-feeders (Jets, Texans, Jaguars), and the results are finally reflecting that. Dan Campbell continues to get the most out of an undermanned group, and continues to show that interpersonal skills matter and you don’t have to take yourself seriously 24/7 in order to get the best out of a professional football team.

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T-25. Atlanta Falcons (6–8)

Last week: Loss at San Francisco, 31–13
Next week: vs. Detroit

The Falcons have won six games and lost eight games. They have beaten some very bad teams and some pretty bad teams. They’ve overmatched by teams that are average or better. If you’re a Falcons fan, you should be neither happy nor sad about this team. But more than anything, we can all agree that this team exists and plays its home games in Atlanta, Georgia.

T-25. Carolina Panthers (5–9)

Last week: Loss at Buffalo, 31–14
Next week: vs. Tampa Bay

It’s an organization that, from the top down, has operated with a franticly urgent approach that doesn’t match where they are as an organization. They jettisoned a bright young offensive coordinator because he couldn’t MacGyver a consistent offense out of two really good receivers, an offensive line assembled from pieces pulled off the scrap heap, and a QB room made up of a former high draft pick with three years of atrocious film, a former XFL star and a street free agent signed in November. Whomever is fueling the panic in Carolina needs to get a grip—this team’s ceiling was seven wins.

28. Chicago Bears (4–10)

Last week: Loss vs. Minnesota, 17–9
Next week: at Seattle

No one should take any pleasure in it, but it seems these are the final days of the Matt Nagy Era in Chicago. But for all the sloppiness and undisciplined play that defined the Bears’ season, he has a team that’s playing hard. Really hard. It’s like one collective, defiant tantrum knowing what comes next is inevitable. (Related: Approximately 73% of the lyrics to Radiohead’s “No Surprises” fit Nagy’s Monday night to a tee.)

PLEASE, NO MORE

T-29. New York Jets (3–11)

Last week: Loss at Miami, 31–24
Next week: vs. Jacksonville

All eyes are on Zach Wilson—which is understandable, quarterbacks are important. And you’d wish he was playing better, but you see flashes—he’s just getting panicky under pressure causing his mechanics to go to hell. It’s understandable considering the wide-open spaces he operated from at BYU. This might get better a la Josh Allen, or it might not a la Mitchell Trubisky. But the bigger concern is the downright sloppy play of the defense. On Sunday, they got gashed by a Dolphins run game that has gone nowhere against anyone else in 2021. And while I hesitate to weigh in on a call into which I have no insight, the biggest play of the game in Miami, a third-and-9 from the 12, was an absolute giveaway. Corner Bryce Hall plays outside leverage against DeVante Parker but there’s no safety help for him, making it the easiest touchdown Parker will ever score. It’s an undermanned group, but that’s just a simple coverage bust.

T-29. New York Giants (4–10)

Last week: Loss vs. Dallas, 21–6
Next week: at Philadelphia

It’s probably a good time to remember that, with Mike Glennon under center, this team is incapable of beating any legitimate NFL team (sorry, Mike Glennon). Whether Joe Judge stays or not, and regardless of who the next GM is, they need to find an offensive coordinator who will maximize a good young quarterback (or a new veteran quarterback) and collection of skill-position players in ways that Jason Garrett (and Pat Shurmur before him) were never going to be able to. That is, obviously, an even greater challenge when you don’t have your head-coaching position to offer.

31. Houston Texans (3–11)

Last week: Win at Jacksonville, 30–16
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I don’t know what they’re building toward in Houston—I don’t know if they know what they’re building toward in Houston—but the fact that David Culley won three games with this roster is pretty incredible. Or maybe it’s incredible that this roster who three games playing for David Culley?

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2–12)

Last week: Loss vs. Houston, 30–16
Next week: at New York Jets

Now that Urban Meyer’s One-Man Circus has packed up its tents, it’s time to focus on Jacksonville’s ownership problem. Whether it’s the overall record, the constant alienation of top talent, last year’s cynical tanking strategy only to come back even worse, or the completely botched firing of Meyer (turns out firing the head coach in the middle of the night on a Wednesday didn’t actually help the remaining coaching staff prepare), is there any reason to believe Shad Khan’s ownership is capable righting this sip? The 2021 Texans are the worst team of the past decade—possibly longer—and the Jaguars were swept by them.

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