Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp are tied for the best odds at SI Sportsbook to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns.
When searching for the possible league leader in receiving touchdowns, I’m looking for a player with big play and scoring ability while playing in a high-profile passing offense. Here are the leaders over the past five seasons:
• 2021 – Cooper Kupp (16), Mike Evans (14), Ja’Marr Chase (13)
• 2020 – Davante Adams (18), Tyreek Hill (15), Adam Thielen (14)
• 2019 – Kenny Golladay (11), Cooper Kupp (10), Mark Andrews (10)
• 2018 – Antonio Brown (15), Davante Adams (13), Eric Ebron (13)
• 2017 – DeAndre Hopkins (13), Davante Adams (10), Jimmy Graham (10)
The top scoring receivers over the past two seasons posted elite touchdowns while playing with some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. A tight end landed in the top three in touchdowns for receivers, with Eric Ebron being the outlier in 2018.
Here’s a look at betting odds at SI Sportsbook for the favorites to score the most receiving touchdowns in 2022:
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Top Tier: Chase Looks to Top Kupp
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (+500)
Some in the fantasy market believe that Ja’Marr Chase is a mistake to be drafted first overall this year. He has an explosive rookie season (81/1,455/13), highlighted by 18 yards per catch. Between college and the NFL over his last 31 games, he scored 33 times, all coming from passes from Joe Burrow. However, Chase fell short of the top receivers in catches (81) and targets (128), which should be corrected in 2022.
Receiver Props Series: Receiving Yards
The Bengals improved their offensive line, and Burrow looks poised to reach a higher ceiling this year. Chase is the best receiver in the NFL, and that dispute will be settled on the field in 2022. I have him as an easy win in receiver touchdown betting prop.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (+500)
Over his 21 games (including postseason) in 2021, Cooper Kupp caught 178 passes for 2,425 yards and 22 touchdowns on 233 targets. His season was the best in NFL history, helped by his volume of starts. He should be the top NFL receiver again this year, but Matthew Stafford comes into the year with questions about his right elbow.
Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
In addition, repeating an elite season is challenging in football. I love his game, but I have him as the third fiddle at wideout this season.
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Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+900)
After an explosive rookie season (88/1,400/7 on 125 targets), the Vikings rewarded Justin Jefferson with the fourth-most targets (167) during the 2021 season. This lead to growth across the board in Jefferson’s stats (108/1,616/10).
Running Back Props Series: Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | Jonathan Taylor | Christian McCaffrey | Austin Ekeler | Najee Harris
Jefferson’s best season came at the hands of Burrow in 2019 at LSU (111/1,540/18). My argument between Jefferson and Chase is that Chase can reach a higher ceiling his sophomore season and possibly outperform’s Jefferson’s sophomore stats.
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The Vikings will provide Jefferson elite chances and he is one of the best receivers in the game. Kirk Cousins helped Adam Thielen score 14 times in 2020 and even 10 last year. A push over 15 touchdowns is well within reach.
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Possible Values: Gabe Davis Could Emerge in Race
Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills (+2000)
Based on his betting odds and his resume over his first two seasons (35/599/7 and 35/549/6), the sportsbooks won’t get a lot of action on Gabe Davis to lead the NFL in receiver touchdowns. With 130 targets and the same success over his first two seasons, he would catch 73 passes for 1,193 yards and 14 touchdowns.
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Davis plays with the top drafted quarterback in 2022 in Josh Allen. He gained 16.4 yards over his first 70 catches in the league, while being an excellent option at the goal line. I don’t put him in the class of the top receivers in the game, but Buffalo may very well have the best offensive in the league this season.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)
The Chargers, under the guidance of Justin Herbert, gave Mike Williams the best opportunity (129 targets) of his career last year. He checks the big play box (16.1 yards per catch) while having two seasons with strength in scoring (10 and 9 touchdowns).
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His size (6’4” and 220 lbs.) creates plenty of chances at the goal line while having the ability to score from long range. Los Angeles should give him more targets this year, with a progression expected in scoring.
BEST BET: Ja’Marr Chase (+500)
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