NFL Regular-Season Rushing Yards Leader Betting Breakdown

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is the SI Sportsbook favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards for the second straight season, slightly ahead of Derrick Henry.

With a little less than four weeks before the first week of the 2022 NFL season, betting opportunities exist in the player prop market at SI Sportsbook.

By process of elimination, it’s pretty easy to cross off many players from the betting odds list. For example: Since 1991, every rushing leader had a floor of 1,327 yards (Kareem Hunt in 2017). Therefore, any thought of Lamar Jackson (+4500) leading the NFL in rushing yards is quickly dismissed. Any back in a split role with a focus on pass-catching value can be eliminated – Tony Pollard, Chase Edmonds, D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey.

Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

Michael Carter and Melvin Gordon are on the wrong side of a running back rotation on their teams. Ezekiel Elliott, Jones, and Damien Harris have talented players pressing for more snaps. The 49ers will start a rushing quarterback in Trey Lance and Deebo Samuel will surely snipe a significant portion of the rushing attempts, thus lowering the ceiling of Elijah Mitchell’s touches this upcoming season.

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Here’s a list of the top options to lead the NFL in rushing yards:

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Over the past 31 years, the leading rusher averaged 345 carries for 1,723 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. A runner needs a high-volume opportunity to lead the NFL in rushing yards while still owning big-play ability.

Running Back Props Series: Rushing TD | Taylor

Here are the five players that have the best chance of receiving more than 300 rushing attempts in 2022. For more insight on the upcoming outlook running back pool, check out the NFL player projections at Sports Illustrated.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+450)

After a slow start over three games (42/171/0) in 2021, the Colts turned to their lead runner to help improve their chances in the win column. Jonathan Taylor responded with an impressive final 14 games in which he rushed for 1,640 yards on 290 carries (5.7 yards per carry) with 18 touchdowns. The Colts’ coaching staff have viable secondary running backs to rotate in, but Taylor commands the ball. He is a big, young runner who looks poised to push his output in rushing yards in his third season.

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Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (+500)

Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing yards in 2019 (1,540) and 2020 (2,027) while being on pace for 1,970 yards last season before missing nine games with a foot injury. Tennessee rode him hard in 2021 (29.6 touches per game) and the Titans don’t have much behind on the depth chart. He seems like a slam dunk, but injuries happen.

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Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200)

The Steelers like to have their starting running back on the field for a high number of plays. Najee Harris finished his rookie season with 381 touches (307 rushing attempts for 1,200 yards), but big plays were challenging to come by. His build (6’1” and 232 lbs.) puts him on a similar path as Henry, but Pittsburgh has offensive line issues and its new starting quarterback will snipe some rushing attempts.

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Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (+800)

Dalvin Cook has the explosiveness and opportunity to lead the NFL in rushing, but he has never played an entire year of football in his five seasons with the Vikings. In 2020, he finished with 312 rushes for 1,557 yards and 16 scores over 14 games.

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Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (+4000)

After his rookie season, Saquon Barkley looked poised to become a star workhorse back. However, his lack of health creates a possible buying opportunity in the prop market this year. Despite finishing his rookie season with 352 touches (261 rushing attempts), New York will bypass him in the run game by using him on many short passes. His ceiling is tied to the development of Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.

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One Injury Away

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (+2000)

The structure of the Broncos’ offense invites a breakout season for Javonte Williams, even with him expected to be in a split role with Gordon. His betting line looks too low, but he could lead the NFL in rushing yards if Gordon had an early-season injury.

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AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (+6600)

I expect AJ Dillon to be a valuable fantasy commodity in 2022 while offering a big-back skill set. However, Jones isn’t going anywhere without an injury, making Dillon only a high-payoff gamble to lead the NFL in rushing yards.

Best Bet: Derrick Henry (+500)
Best Odds: Saquon Barkley (+4000)

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