SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo discusses how sharp bettors are assessing the three games on tap for Sunday's NFL super wild-card games
On Sunday, NFL fans and bettors get a culmination to wild-card weekend with three exciting matchups that will set the stage for the Divisional Round matchups. Over the entire NFL postseason last year, the Vegas Whispers sharps absolutely crushed the sportsbooks going 7-0 ATS that culminated in a win with Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV. The sharp information will look to extend that NFL postseason perfection into this year’s playoffs - and that begins on Saturday, where a ‘Free Pick’ has already been released!
There are two playoff teams that NFL fans will not be seeing in action this weekend: the defending Champion Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs posted a 14-2 record and thus earned the top overall seed in the AFC and an opening-round bye. In the NFC, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 13-3 record, earned the No. 1 overall seed and a bye in the NFC.
The sharp information out in Vegas had yet another profitable regular season finishing up 2020 68-47-1. The betting plays, supplied only to Sports Illustrated, have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in NFL, NCAA basketball, and college football wagering. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, is currently on an amazing 11-3 ATS (79%) run on all football plays.
In NCAA football, the respected information stands at 31-21 ATS on the season heading into Monday’s Championship game between Alabama and Ohio State. UFC bettors, courtesy of Casey Olson’s information, finished 2020 at 210-87-6 ATS (71%) on all wagers for all SI PRO members.
Let’s dive into the games.
No. 5 Baltimore (11-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) at No. 4 Tennessee (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS)
- Moneyline: Baltimore (-177) | Tennessee: (+155)
- Spread: BAL: -3.5 (-104) | TEN: +3.5 (-118)
- Total: 54.5– Over: (-113) | Under: 54.5 (-108)
- Location: M&T Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
- Game Info: January 10, 2021 1:05 p.m. ET / 10:05 am PT | ABC
According to my Vegas sources, nearly 55 percent of all wagers to come in on the game have come in support of Titans. The line, which opened at 3.5-points in favor of Baltimore at DraftKings Sportsbook, has held steady. The total, which opened at 54.5, has also held steady despite strong support to the over (65%) and currently stands at the opening number of 54.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Ravens (11-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) are one of the hottest teams - heading into the playoffs on a six-game winning streak. Lamar Jackson and the AFC North power posted an amazingly lucrative 6-0 ATS record over that span. Jackson will have an immense amount of pressure to finally win a playoff game after losing his first two career trips to the postseason. The Ravens will need a big effort on the ground from rookie running back J.K. Dobbins to help take the pressure off of Jackson and exploit a Titans defense that has been torched over the last few months.
On the other side, Derrick Henry and the Titans (11-5 SU; 7-9 ATS) closed out the regular season 5-2 SU but more importantly only 4-3 ATS over their last seven games. As history has shown us, a dominant running game is often a winning formula for NFL postseason success. The Titans check that box better than any of 14 teams in the 2020 playoffs - more specifically with star running back Derrick Henry, who led the league in rushing yards (2,027), became only the eighth player to break the elusive 2,000-yard mark. If the Titans are to have any chance of knocking out Baltimore for the second consecutive year in the playoffs, they will need their running attack to lead the way.
Vegas Whispers Player PROP: J.K. Dobbins OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
No. 7 Chicago (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) at No. 2 New Orleans (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS)
- Moneyline: Chicago: (+400) | New Orleans: (-500)
- Spread: CHI:+10 (-112) | NO: -10 (109)
- Total: – Over: 47.5 (-107) | Under: 47.5 (-114)
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Game Info: January 10, 2020 4:40 pm ET / 1:40 pm PT | CBS
According to my Vegas sources, nearly 71 percent of all wagers to come in on the game have come in support of New Orleans. The line, which opened at 9.5-points in favor of the Saints on Sunday at DraftKings Sportsbook., has risen a half-point. Now, New Orleans is a 10-point home favorite. The total, which opened at 47.5, has held steady after only moderate support (54%) to the under and currently stands at 47.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Saints (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS), led by Alvin Kamara, closed out the regular season strong going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS over that span. The NFC South champions have displayed a strong offensive rushing attack and enabled bettors who backed wagering on over the posted total by oddsmakers - over the last month of the regular season - to cash in three of the last four games.
On the other side, the Bears (12-4 SU; 9-7 ATS) head into Sunday's game as the biggest underdog of any wildcard weekend participant. The Bears went 3-1 SU and ATS in their final four games of the year, after losing six consecutive games SU and going 1-5 ATS over that span. The two teams met back in Week 9 when the Saints (-5.5) came away with a 26-23 win in overtime on the road at Soldier Field.
No. 6 Cleveland (11-5 SU, 6-10 ATS) at No. 3 Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS)
- Moneyline: Cleveland: (+235) | Pittsburgh: (-275)
- Spread: CLE:+6 (-113) | PIT: -6 (-108)
- Total: Over: 47.5 (-110) | Under: 47.5 (-110)
- Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
- Game Info: January 10, 2021 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT | NBC
According to my Vegas sources, nearly 79 percent of all wagers to come in on the game have come in support of Pittsburgh. The line, which opened at 3.5-points in favor of the Steelers at DraftKings Sportsbook, has risen 2.5-points. Now Pittsburgh is a six-point home favorite. The total, which opened at 47.5, has settled back after small fluctuations at the opening number despite strong support to the under (77%).
Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS), led by a strong defense and veteran Ben Roethlisberger under center, head into the playoffs in less than desirable fashion going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS over the final five weeks of the regular season. The AFC North champions who opened the season on a 12-game winning streak have struggled down the stretch, losing four playoff teams (Washington, Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Cleveland). Last week's 24-22 loss against the Browns can be thrown out since the Steelers decided to rest many of its starters, including Roethlisberger, after having the AFC North division wrapped up.
On the other side, the Cleveland Browns (11-5 SU; 6-10 ATS) head into Sunday night as the worst team against the spread (6-10 ATS) of any of the teams playing in the wildcard round. Cleveland has seen the line move significantly against them by the oddsmakers after it was learned that head coach Kevin Stefanski would miss the game due to COVID-19.
As we saw with the Clemson Tigers in their loss to Ohio State, bettors should not ignore the importance of losing vital coaches just days before kickoff. With special teams coordinator Mike Priefer expected to handle the lead duties, oddsmakers and the sharps agree that Pittsburgh now will have a sizable advantage against a team that has been hit hard by the coronavirus in recent weeks.
Vegas Whispers Play: Pittsburgh -6 (-110)
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Over the entire 2019 NFL postseason, the Vegas Whispers sharps absolutely crushed the sportsbooks going 7-0 ATS, and the information is currently 68-47-1 in 2020 on released NFL plays. On Thursday night, the sharps are 13-2 ATS in their plays shared here at Sports Illustrated. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated's Gambling Vegas Insider, finished the 2020 Major League Baseball (MLB) at 79-60-0 +16.66 units and is currently 31-21 ATS on NCAA College Football for all SI PRO members.
Be sure to check back all week long for the BEST Sharp Betting information shared here only at SI Gambling! You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy and subscribe to SI Fantasy PRO to subscribe to his "Vegas Whispers" betting information.