The story lines we’ll be watching closely, including whether Bills quarterback Josh Allen plays against the Vikings. Plus, picks for midseason awards and more.
We unveiled our second-half surprises, story lines and predictions Thursday. And now the next nine weeks will be a fight to the finish for those in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the rest of the teams will be jockeying for playoff positioning, possibly to take that next franchise quarterback as we saw in Kevin Hanson’s most recent mock draft. We’re also at a point in the season when Albert Breer and Conor Orr can give us their picks for midseason awards below.
To get it kicked off, Albert and Conor will take you through the Sunday and Monday games, noting the best matchups and the story lines they’ll be watching.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
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Seahawks at Buccaneers, 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday: I’m excited that Germany—the country outside of North America that loves our version of football the most, and by a healthy margin (evidenced by the fact they’ve actually produced NFL players)—is getting this game. And as luck would have it, this game wound up being a fascinating matchup. The Seahawks have a shot to equal their win total of 2021. And the Buccaneers have a chance to build on their dramatic, Tom Brady–fueled comeback, and keep pace with the Falcons in the NFC South. Munich’s got a legit big game coming. — Albert Breer
Vikings at Bills, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: As of the typing of this blurb, we don’t know whether Josh Allen is going to play Sunday because of an injury to his throwing arm. Curiously, I wonder what defenses will show this very deep Bills roster without the threat of a lumberjack (axe included) sneaking out of the pocket on every down to gain first downs. We know the Bills will be worse without Allen on the field (even though Minneapolis Miracle worker Case Keenum is there), but how much worse? Put another way: Could they be good enough to manufacture wins without Allen, or is the offense, almost like a 2015 Panthers offense, predicated on the otherworldly tools of one man? —Conor Orr
Browns at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: Cleveland is inching toward a Deshaun Watson return. As we’ve marked a few times throughout the season, Watson inherits a club that is already, unquestionably, a top-10 offense. The Browns’ defense is bottom-five, fails to cause many turnovers and struggles to defend the run, especially closer to the goal line. Again, we’ll say, Watson cannot help with this. —C.O.
Colts at Raiders, 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday: There’s a fair amount of pressure on Josh McDaniels—his team is 2–6, having blown three 17-point leads, and he’s now facing the team he walked away from in 2018, one that’s far deeper in turmoil than his own. Suffice it to say, losing to Jeff Saturday on Sunday would be a tough look. And my guess is Las Vegas won’t, with this being a critical opportunity for Derek Carr to reassert himself, and a chance for the Raiders to gather a little momentum, banged up as they are (with Hunter Renfrow Niand Darren Waller going to IR). —A.B. I EDITED THIS A LITTLE
Cowboys at Packers, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: The Packers have had a few more ideal opportunities to get themselves right but squandered them. How long will the offense stay broken? While the Cowboys seem like the worst possible team for Green Bay to see at the moment, perhaps Mike McCarthy returning home sparks something in Aaron Rodgers. Or, perhaps, something in the Cowboys’ opportunistic, attacking defense allows the Packers to get some breaks in the quick game and score a few touchdowns early. —C.O.
Chargers at 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: With the bye week in the rearview mirror, Kyle Shanahan and his staff have had plenty of time to fully integrate Christian McCaffrey into everything they do, and Deebo Samuel has had a chance to rest his hamstring, so San Francisco should come out flying. As for the Chargers? They’re 5–3, but lack a signature win in 2022. This is a chance to get one. —A.B.
FANTASY BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK
Saquon Barkley will post 30-plus fantasy points vs. Houston. The Texans’ defense is the gift that keeps on giving at the running back position, and Barkley should benefit. Coming off a bye week, he should dominate a unit that’s allowed four backs to post more than 150 scrimmage yards this season. All four of those players also scored at least once, and three of them scored multiple touchdowns. Barkley’s ceiling this week is sky high, so a week with 150-plus scrimmage yards and multiple touchdowns is very possible. —Michael Fabiano
• Fabiano’s Week 10 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DEF
MIDSEASON AWARDS
Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports
Who is your Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Orr: Dameon Pierce. I think Kenneth Walker III is up there, too, though we’ve always seen the Seahawks have an ability to find running backs. With Pierce, I wonder how much worse off the already bumbling Texans would be if he wasn’t in the lineup. Want a stat that will blow your mind? Davis Mills has about the same number of play-action attempts and yardage as … Lamar Jackson. Pierce is a major reason why teams are respecting the run.
Breer: Pierce. I’ll repeat what I had in my awards column, and give you a mind-blowing stat someone gave me—Pierce has 58 broken tackles through nine games. That works out close to one broken tackle per every two carries. And it’s helped him get to sixth in the league in rushing despite having, well, not much of a passing attack around him to keep safeties from creeping into the box. Pierce is really good, even if not many people are paying attention.
Who is your Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Orr: Sauce Gardner. It’s Revis 2.0 in New York. The Jets have been able to trust Gardner already against some of the most elite wide receivers in football. After he endured a devious double move by Stefon Diggs on the opening play of last week’s victory over the Bills, he settled into yet another solid game. Gardner is allowing just over 50% of the passes thrown his way to get completed.
Breer: Gardner. He leads the league in pass breakups with 13. He’s making his biggest plays when it matters most (last week’s fourth-and-21 PBU, a good example). And even better, when he gets beat, it doesn’t faze him the way it often would a rookie corner. Bottom line: Gardner’s got just about everything you’d want in a young guy at that particular position.
Who is your Offensive Player of the Year?
Orr: Josh Allen. To this point, barring an elongated rest due to injury, he has this one in the bag. Allen is, at the moment, the league’s singular-magician quarterback who can make anything happen at any point in time on the field. While a lot of this has to do with his talented offense and his excellent play-caller, this is proof that Allen’s development has reached new heights.
Breer: Tyreek Hill. He’s on pace for nearly 2,000-plus-yards receiving, and he’s had only one game all year where he was held under 60 scrimmage yards. His quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, looks like a completely different player with him. Hill’s departure from Kansas City is the rare quarterback-receiver breakup where both guys prove right away just how good they are on their own. If there were any questions on how valuable the 28-year-old is as a player, those have to be gone now.
Who is your Defensive Player of the Year?
Orr: Bobby Wagner or Chris Jones. While it’s too early to delineate between the two, both have had incredible individual performances. Jones has been unstoppable in stretches, to the point where it looks like offensive lines are just throwing their hands up and giving him the Aaron Donald treatment.
Breer: Micah Parsons. If you look at the Cowboys’ defense, there’s a lot of good but not great talent. Parsons elevates them, because every time the huddle is broken, the offense’s first priority is to figure out exactly where Parsons is going and what he’s doing. Unicorn is a term for players that’s thrown around too much, but it’s justified in describing Parsons.
Who is your Comeback Player of the Year?
Orr: Travis Etienne. While there is nothing to really come back from, I suppose being in the same facility as Urban Meyer is enough of an emotional strain. Who knows? Still, Etienne’s emergence has been a huge boost to the Jaguars’ offense and their ability to maximize the best of Trevor Lawrence. A year ago he was rehabbing an ACL injury, and now he’s dominating opponents despite an undersized frame.
Breer: It’s easy for me—Geno Smith. Few thought the Seahawks would be this good.
Who is your Coach of the Year?
Orr: Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys were without their starting QB for almost a quarter of the season and remain on pace to enter the playoffs. This is a solid roster, though it’s time to give McCarthy the credit he’s due. We were ready to fire him after Dak Prescott left the field with a broken bone in his thumb.
Breer: Nick Sirianni. Between the staff he put together, the job they’ve done developing Jalen Hurts and integrating new pieces such as A.J. Brown, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and James Bradberry, and the chemistry that’s melded every facet of the operation together, I’ll give Sirianni the nod over McCarthy and Brian Daboll for NFC East, and NFL, Coach of the (half) Year.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET
The Chargers head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers while boasting a 3–1 road record, but sometimes numbers can be misleading. All three of the Chargers’ road wins (Texans, Browns and Falcons) came against teams with sub-.500 records. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 2–0 against the spread as a home favorite, and SI Sportsbook has them laying 5.5 to Los Angeles. The 49ers are fresh off their bye week and should get some key playmakers back. They boast a top-10 defense in several key categories, including points per game and yards per play, while the Chargers’ offense ranks outside the top 20 in both of those metrics. Look for the stout San Francisco defense to slow down L.A.’s offense and easily cover the 5.5-point spread.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Orr: Expanding on what we wrote above, if Deshaun Watson comes back to a Browns team that is already a top-five offense in the NFL and a bottom-third defense, what is the difference? I think in some ways, the Browns’ decision to abandon morality also undermined the fact that Kevin Stefanski is pretty good at this, and that they assembled a strong set of personnel on the field. Let’s say Watson moves the offense from No. 5 to No. 1, but if the defense is still middling or, worse, bad, and still needs a complementary edge rusher at the end of the season with no high draft picks, and still needs more interior depth to stop the run … did you rob Peter to pay Paul? Let me put it another way: The only way this front office doesn’t go down as all-time ghouls in the sport is if Cleveland puts on a laser light show every weekend and makes a deep run to the playoffs next year. They’d better hope they can figure this thing out.
Breer: Allen’s injury is a reminder of what a special group of young quarterbacks you’ve got in the AFC right now—with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson with him at the head of the table—and how fragile all of this can be. Elsewhere in the AFC—Indianapolis is another example—in that just over three years ago, they (justifiably) thought they were in as good a position as anyone, with Andrew Luck in place for the decade ahead. So here’s hoping, for the good of the game, that the Bills are judicious with Allen’s injury, and he’s alright soon. As we found out with the Colts this week, assets such as these need to be protected.
More NFL Coverage:
• NFL Midseason: First-Half Surprises, Second-Half Story Lines, Super Bowl Predictions
• Midseason Mock Draft: Three Quarterbacks in the Top Five Picks
• NFL Midseason Power Rankings: Biggest Risers and Fallers Since Week 1