NFL Week 15 Betting Preview: Line Movement and Odds Tracking for Sunday's Games

Dec 16, 2021

Week 15 NFL lines and odds are on the move, but just where is the money showing at SI Sportsbook?

For all fantasy football managers, the fruits of your labor are about to pay off as you embark on the fantasy playoffs. For sports bettors, specifically those who love to bet favorites, the journey has been a bit more tumultuous.

Underdogs continue to hold an edge in the overall wagering outcome with a season mark of 109-96-1 (53.2%). In Week 14, though, bettors beat the sportsbooks as favorites enjoyed their most dominant week of the season by posting 12-2 Straight-Up (SU) and 11-3 Against The Spread (ATS) records.

It is often beneficial to dive in and look even deeper at the numbers. As we continue to stress at SI Betting, if you are under the assumption that blindly backing NFL home teams is a profitable endeavor this season then your bankroll has taken a hit.

Home teams are just 91-116-1 (44.0%), while home favorites are a disappointing 96-109-1 (46.8%) ATS through 14 weeks.

The action on the gridiron will return Thursday night with a AFC West showdown between the Chiefs and Chargers. The Chiefs are currently a 3-point road favorite, with a 54.5 total sitting on the game at SI Sportsbook.

Let’s look ahead to several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the Sunday slate.

Check Week 15 NFL Lines at SI Sportsbook

NFL Week 15 Games ‘On The Move’

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions

This game opened in early wagering in August with Arizona as a 6.5-point road favorite, but has adjusted to an opening line of the Cardinals as 12.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook. Arizona, coming off a home loss to the Rams, will be looking to strengthen its quest for the NFC West crown. The Cardinals (9-4 SU) are road warriors, posting league-best 7-0 SU and ATS marks away from State Farm Stadium.

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Detroit, the worst team in the NFL at 1-11-1, has actually rewarded bettors with a 8-5 ATS mark. The Lions are 4-1 ATS over their last five, and will look to earn their second straight home win after upsetting the Vikings in Week 13 as 7-point underdogs.

Arizona is tied for the fourth by averaging 28.2 points per game, and will look to exploit Detroit's 29th-ranked scoring defense allowing 27.2 points per game. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS this season when favored by more than a touchdown, including covering as a 20.5-point home favorite over Houston in Week 7.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 56% of money on Arizona
Line Move: Arizona -6.5 to Arizona -12.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

ARZ: 9-4 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 7-0 ATS)
DET: 8-5 ATS (Home: 4-2 ATS, Away: 4-3 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
DET: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

The game that has witnessed the biggest move from early August wagering involves the NFC East tilt between the Cowboys and Giants. This game opened as a ‘Pick over the summer but oddsmakers have since made Dallas a double-digit favorite.

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The Giants are 3-3 ATS at home and will face a Cowboys squad that is 6-1 ATS on the road. Dallas, who owns the NFL’s second-best scoring offense (29.2 points per game), will face a New York defense that has surrendered 23.5 points per game over the last four games. The Cowboys have dominated the Giants as of late by winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including a profitable 7-3 ATS mark during that stretch.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 58% of money on Dallas
Line Move: Dallas ‘PK to Dallas -10.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

DAL: 10-3 ATS (Home: 4-2 ATS, Away: 6-1 ATS)
NYG: 6-7 ATS (Home: 3-3 ATS, Away: 3-4 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

DAL: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
NYG: 9-7 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 6-2 ATS)

Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY NETWORK

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles

The Washington Football Team will look to bounce back from its home loss last week to NFC East rival Dallas when it head up the Turnpike to take on another division foe in the Eagles. Washington, despite 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS records, has rewarded backers as of late with lucrative 4-1 SU and ATS marks over its last five contests.

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Philadelphia was listed as a 1.5-point home favorite in early wagering only to see that balloon to 9.5-point home demand. The Eagles are 3-1 SU and ATS over the last four weeks, and continue to reward bettors no matter who is under center.

When Jalen Hurts went down, backup Gardner Minshew stepped in and led the Eagles to a 33-18 road victory over the Jets. Pro money is investing that Philadelphia, who owns the NFL’s best rushing attack (160.0 rushing yards per game), will find success against a Washington club that placed 21 players on the COVID-19 list. The Eagles own 6-4 SU and ATS marks over the last 10 matchups between these rivals.

Public Betting: 52% of money on Washington
Line Move: Philadelphia -1.5 to Philadelphia -9.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

WSH: 5-8 ATS (Home: 2-5 ATS, Away: 3-3 ATS)
PHI: 7-6 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

WSH: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
PHI: 6-10 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens

The Packers, early 3-point road underdogs against Baltimore in August, were adjusted to 5.5-point favorites on Sunday’s opener at SI Sportsbook.

Green Bay owns a 5-2 ATS record away from Lambeau Field this season and encounters a Ravens squad that has lost two straight games and is facing the likelihood of being without star quarterback Lamar Jackson (ankle).

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The Packers own the NFL's best ATS record at 11-2 and are looking to earn their third consecutive SU and ATS win against a Ravens defense that ranks 31st against the pass, allowing 266.1 passing yards per game. The Ravens are expected to start Tyler Huntley under center against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 10th in passing yards allowed (218.5). Baltimore will need to find production from the league’s third-best rushing attack (144.8) if it has any hopes of controlling the time of possession battle by keeping Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers offense on the sidelines.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 58% of money on Green Bay
Line Move: Baltimore -3 to Green Bay -5.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

GB: 11-2 ATS (Home: 6-0 ATS, Away: 5-2 ATS)
BAL: 6-7 ATS (Home: 3-3 ATS, Away: 3-4 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

GB: GB: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS
BAL: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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