The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at SI's MMQB weigh in on their top best bet against the spread for Week 5 in the NFL.
Over the course of this year's 2020 NFL season, the SI Gambling team, along with a few of our friends from the SI MMQB NFL team are putting our collective heads together to pick our top game of the week against the spread. We'll keep track over the course of the year for bragging rights as well as transparency. During Week 4, our crew bounced back for a positive week at 7-6-0 ATS, and putting the crew at 28-22-1 ATS overall!
Meanwhile, the heat check continued on Thursday night! Our SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo's information from "The PROPnosticator" for Thursday's game between the Broncos and Jets. SI Fantasy PRO members received Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy OVER 51.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
In 2020, the "Vegas Whispers" NFL betting plays have gone 22-18-0 ATS as well as 6-0 on Thursday Night Football..
Before checking out the team's selections and "best bets," here are the latest Week 4 NFL lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
NFL Best Bets for Week 5
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7) | TOTAL: 57.5
The Vikings first win of the season may have come against another winless team in the Houston Texans, but the arrival of Justin Jefferson in this offense makes this Vikings team far more dangerous. Since Jefferson has emerged with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games, the Vikings have gone 2-0 ATS, including an outright win last week.
The line opened up at Vikings +9 and immediately get bet down by the professionals to +7 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Seattle is 4-0-0 ATS so far in 2020, but every game they’ve won since Week 2 has been by just one possession.
I like Minnesota to cover the +7, but I grabbed them at +7.5 to get the hook. Don’t be afraid to wait on this game with the public likely all over the Seahawks, potentially causing the line to move back in a favorite direction for Vikings bettors.
BEST BET: Minnesota Vikings +7.5 (has since moved to Vikings +7)
Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)
Cincinnati Bengals (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens | TOTAL: 51
I love what I have seen so far from Joe Burrow in his first four games in the NFL. The Bengals have weapons with Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon as well as the emerging Tee Higgins. As we know, Ravens star QB Lamar Jackson has missed practice several times this week with an undisclosed knee injury. Even if he suits up, he may not look to run as much and that could hurt Baltimore’s chances of covering this inflated number. I believe the back door, at the very least, could be wide open on Sunday for the Bengals. Grab the points while you can, because I do not believe you will see this high of a number come kickoff.
BEST BET: Cincinnati Bengals +13 (has since moved to Bengals +12).
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (+7 ) | TOTAL: 47
One thing that I have learned so far this season is to trust my colleague Frankie Taddeo when he talks about the hapless Jets and Adam Gase. The Jets will be starting Joe Flacco this week, let that sink in. I normally do not back west coast teams traveling east for a 1pm start, but the Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses and win you this game against the hapless Jets to get right.
BEST BET: Arizona Cardinals -7
Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)
Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons | TOTAL: 54.5
The Falcons are an absolute mess coming into this week. Their defense has been without starting safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, and starting corners Darqueze Dennard and A.J. Terrell are hurt too. Furthermore, they’ve also lost safeties Damontae Kazee and Jaylinn Hawkins to injuries. Enter the Panthers, who are coming off a great performance against the Cardinals and are playing with a lot of confidence. Falcons coach Dan Quinn, who could be coaching his last game, has not led his teams to much success as home favorites, either. I like the moneyline in this game too, as I’m feeling a Panthers victory in Atlanta.
BEST BET: Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
Dr. Roto (@DrRoto)
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns (+2) | TOTAL: 47.5
Cleveland is without star RB Nick Chubb for the next few games which will probably push a lot of people towards picking Indianapolis, but the Colts have a few major injuries themselves. Stud LBs Darius Leonard and Anthony Walker are both questionable with injuries and my gut feeling tells me that Leonard will be out which would be a major blow to the Colts’ defense. With Leonard missing, watch for Kareem Hunt to make plays out of the backfield and for Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper to roam freely over the middle of the field. That will lead to Baker Mayfield taking a few shots deep to Odell Beckham. Not only do I like the points here, I am calling for the Browns to win the game outright.
BEST BET: Cleveland Browns +2 (has since moved to Browns +1)
Bill Enright (@BillEnright)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) | TOTAL: 54.5
Four games in a row the Cowboys didn’t cover the spread. This happens every year with Dallas. The public LOVES them, boosts up the line every week and they can’t meet expectations and there’s a massive sell off. The spread opened at 11.5 and came down two points because the public is SICK of getting burnt by the Cowboys. So whenever everyone else is fed up and starting to sell, I’m trying to jump in and buy. Take Cowboys laying the 9.5 against the G-Men.
BEST BET: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 (has since moved to Dallas -9)
Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) | TOTAL: 44.5
Carson Wentz and the Eagles (1-2-1) are on the road for a second straight week following a 25-20 victory in San Francisco. Dealing with a rash of injuries, Philadelphia was able upset the 49ers despite being outgained by a 417-267 total yards margin. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers (3-0) return to action after their Week 4 game against Tennessee was cancelled due to COVID-19. Prior to that, Pittsburgh defeated the Giants, Broncos and Texans by an 80-58 combined count. The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.
Pittsburgh is rested and has had plenty of time to prepare for the Eagles. Philadelphia played a full overtime, during a 23-23 tie at home against Cincinnati in Week 3, and then travelled to the west coast last week. While the Eagles are still dealing with injuries - Roethlisberger has all his weapons available on offense. Philadelphia has been outscored by a 107-84 margin and doesn't have the offense, or defense, to keep pace with the Steelers. DraftKings bookmakers have Pittsburgh as -7 point favorites and I like them to win this contest by at least 10 points.
BEST BET: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns | TOTAL : 47.5
Analysis: After dropping 49 points on a bad Dallas Cowboys defense the Browns will welcome in the slow moving Philip Rivers and Indianapolis Colts offense this weekend and must face them in their first full game without lead RB Nick Chubb. Cleveland has serviceable replacements behind Chubb in Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson, and it’s not like they should see the same passing game results against a top ranked Colts pass defense. Both teams will likely come out looking to keep the game on the ground and this one should lack any of those so-called “shot” plays going over 20 yards. Expect a close, low scoring affair and ride the UNDER in Cleveland this week.
BEST BET: Colts @ Browns UNDER 47.5
Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+2) | TOTAL: 47.5
Are Baker and the Browns for real? We will find out this weekend in a showdown with the ageless Phillip Rivers. This is a changing of the guard game for Baker and he has an opportunity to prove himself against this really good Colts defense. It’s tough going against a hot team like Indy but this is where it ends for them and we go to week 6 asking if the Browns are somehow contenders. Watch out!
BEST BET: Cleveland Browns +2 (has since moved to Browns +1)
Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+2) | TOTAL: 47.5
Analysis: The Browns offensive line gave Baker all the time he needed last weekend enabling the team to score at least 34 points in three straight games. Meanwhile, the Colts offense isn't nearly as dynamic as Dallas. Let's also not make too much of the Nick Chubb injury. The offensive line is the strength of this unit. We already know Kareem Hunt is just as capable if not more so of carrying the load and D'Ernest Johnson flashed well as a capable backup to move the chains. The AFC North is the best division in football and I know it’s early but to me, the Browns are proving to be a legit Wild Card contender. Take the Browns straight up as I believe the wrong team is favored here.
BEST BET: Cleveland Browns +2 (has since moved to Browns +1)
Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (+7) | TOTAL: 47
Not only are the Jets winless this year, they are also 0-4 ATS, so let’s pick on them. Veteran Joe Flacco gets the start Sunday as Sam Darnold will miss due to a sprained shoulder in last week's 37-28 loss to Denver. Anyone saying Flacco starting will help the cause needs to consider that the Jets are also 0-6 over the past two years when Darnold sits due to injury or illness. The team ranks dead last in points scored and 31st in points allowed. Yes, the Cardinals are riding back to back losses, as Murray threw three INTs against the Lions, followed up with the Panthers keeping the Cards to just 55 offensive plays last week. Expect a considerable bounce back this week and helping the cause will be the return of Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker. Baker, along with running back Kenyan Drake, and offensive lineman Justin Pugh all practiced full this week, adding even more confidence in a two plus score win on Sunday for the Cards against the worst team in the NFL.
BEST BET: Arizona Cardinals -7
Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) | TOTAL: 54.5
Both teams come into this game among the top five in giveaways. With the Giants, that was expected due to Daniel Jones’s sluggish internal clock. For the Cowboys, it’s a fluke; of their nine turnovers six are lost fumbles—they’ve never lost more than nine over a full season in the Dak Prescott era (not to mention, while teams are expected to recover fumbles about half the time, Dallas has lost six of their seven offensive fumbles). So how does this play into the total? The Cowboys are indeed crummy on defense, but they’ve also been giving opponents lots of short fields. And, of course, after giving up points on those short fields they’ve been piling up garbage-time points against soft defenses. Assuming they don’t continue to put the ball on the ground, the Cowboys will have no reason to scramble for points on Sunday. And the Giants, along with a general refusal to try to score points this season, don’t have the kind of run game that can take advantage of the Cowboys’ sieve of a run defense anyway. It should be a comfortable win for Dallas, and a relatively low-scoring one.
BEST BET: Giants @ Cowboys UNDER 54.5
Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team (+7.5) | TOTAL: 46.5
The headline coming into this game is that Washington has made the switch from Dwayne Haskins to Kyle Allen at quarterback, but it’s fair to wonder if that even matters. I don’t think Haskins is all that ails the Washington Football Team. Everyone seemed to get their hopes up after Week 1 that Washington might be ahead of schedule after their defensive line wrecked a group of Eagles backups, but the team has lost all three games since then by two touchdowns. Even if Chase Young returns to the lineup, I don’t see any reason not to believe in the Rams here. Even though they are traveling cross-country for an early kickoff time, it’s clear they’re the better team, and likely by a lot. They have actually been better than I thought they’d be this season and watching their offense go to work is more like it was when the Sean McVay Rams were new and fun a couple years ago. McVay is one of several former Washington assistant coaches who have scattered and found success elsewhere around the league, and I think he’ll say hello to Mr. Snyder with plenty of points this weekend.
BEST BET: Los Angeles Rams -7.5