NFL Week 5 Preview: A rookie quarterback makes his first start against the Bills

The story lines we’ll be watching closely, including Kenny Pickett’s Steelers debut and a backup quarterback trying to stay unbeaten. Plus our pick for MVP through four weeks.

Welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season. While this weekend’s slate is a bit of a shrug emoji, and we’re dependent on the Ravens and Bengals to provide the requisite firepower, there are some teams who could slip into seriously murky territory with losses. The Buccaneers, for one. The Raiders, Panthers, Commanders and Saints to name a few more. For different reasons, a loss would either plummet their records into obscurity or cause the kind of nagging annoyance that may force each team to confront some lingering issues.

How does that sound for an NFL promo? Win or Emotional Destruction. We didn’t even need a $2 million budget and the hiring of Beck to sing a song about Patrick Mahomes.

So get ready for another crucial week on the NFL schedule.

To get it kicked off, Albert Breer and Conor Orr will take you through the Sunday and Monday games, noting the best matchups and what they’ll be watching.

GAMES OF THE WEEK

Giants at Packers, 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday: It sure feels like the Giants, at 3–1 in Brian Daboll’s first year, head off to London playing with house money. The operation’s been tight through a month of games. New York was tough at the wire in wins over Tennessee and Carolina. The Giants represented themselves well in their one loss to the Cowboys. And now they get a win-now Packers team that’s wildly talented on defense and has a dominant run game but is still finding its footing with a young receiver group that needs to grow up fast. So you’ve got two teams with the same record, but in very different spots. — Albert Breer

Steelers at Bills, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: When I dug in a little on Kenny Pickett this preseason, it sounded like the most sensible changeover period was during the bye week (Nov. 6), after which the Steelers’ schedule lightens considerably. Instead, it’s a trial by Leslie Frazier and Von Miller. Pickett has a quick release, he’s decisive, and he can push the ball in tight windows. Of course, so can a lot of quarterbacks before they face one of the best defensive groups in the NFL. — Conor Orr

Cowboys at Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: Cooper Rush is now 4–0 as a starter and 3–0 this year, so we should probably stop waiting for the bottom to fall out. He also has a receiver group that’s getting healthier, a young left tackle who’s getting more experienced, and a defense that may not be perfect but is scary getting after the passer around him. And that last one could be the key with the Rams’ offensive line battered and struggling, and coming off a short week. — A.B.

Eagles at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: This appears to be a question of endurance at this point for the Eagles. What do they want to show, and when do they want to show it? Barring an inevitable collapse, this is a team that will be in the postseason in some capacity and a team that will factor heavily into the early rounds at the very least. Against a soft defensive opponent, can they rely on a downhill running game and flatten the overaged and undermanned Cardinals? — C.O.

Bengals at Ravens, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: A nice test for the Ravens’ heartbreaking defense against Joe Burrow, who twice put up 40-pointers on them a year ago (albeit with a different coordinator). Baltimore may be due for life at the other end of the statistical pendulum when it comes to closing out games. Let’s see if the Ravens can get a lead and maintain it, or if the Bengals’ versatile secondary will challenge Lamar Jackson’s limited options in the passing game. — C.O.

Raiders at Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. ET Monday: I’m not picking the Raiders. That said, I think there’s a real path to victory for Las Vegas here. The Raiders’ run game exploded for 212 yards against a good Denver defense last week. If Josh Jacobs & Co. can come close to that again, they can shorten the game. And, if the Chiefs trip up a little early, and get a lead, then you can tune the pass rushers up, and then you’d have the game being played on the Raiders’ terms. Likely? Again, not really. But it is possible. Of course, if the Chiefs come out of the gate like they did last week, we’re talking about something else altogether. — A.B.

FANTASY BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK

Michael Fabiano: Patrick Mahomes won’t just play well Monday night; he will score at least 30 fantasy points vs. the Raiders. Mahomes has done well against Las Vegas, throwing 22 touchdown passes in eight regular-season meetings. That includes three games with at least four scoring strikes. The Raiders have been bad against quarterbacks, allowing nearly 24 fantasy points per game in 2022, so I’m expecting Mahomes to go off this week.

• Fabiano’s Week 5 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DEF

QUICK QUESTIONS

What is your one big prediction for Week 5?

Orr: The winless Texans clip the Jaguars. Jacksonville is due for a bit of a fatigue game after playing well for a few consecutive weeks, and Houston is due to put one together, regardless of how undermanned it’ll be in this game.

Breer: I picked all favorites this week (it’s not because I forgot to do my picks … as far as you know), so this is a tough one. But give me Tee Higgins to top 150 yards on Sunday Night Football against the Ravens. My guess is that Baltimore puts Marlon Humphrey on Ja’Marr Chase, and I think Higgins will feast, facing the smaller Marcus Peters and the not-as-good Brandon Stephens.

Which team most needs a win in Week 5?

Orr: The Panthers. It’s hard to imagine Matt Rhule’s hot seat in Carolina doesn’t become absolutely scorching if the Panthers get blown out by an upward-trending 49ers team. Kyle Shanahan has a way of making even really good coaches look foolish. While Carolina’s speedy defense could mix up its pressures and pin Jimmy Garoppolo in the backfield, it’s also vulnerable against a sledgehammer running game.

Breer: The Patriots. I know that sounds weird—but they’ve made a lot of progress the past two weeks in losses to the Ravens and Packers. And while a moral victory was once an unacceptable term in Foxborough, these are different times. They went blow-for-blow with Baltimore, and Lamar Jackson simply took over in the end. They took the Packers to overtime at Lambeau with a third-string rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe. A convincing win over Detroit could validate all the positive momentum. And a loss to the Lions? That’d change the complexion on everything that just happened.

Which coach or player is most under pressure in Week 5?

Orr: Todd Bowles. Who wants to be the head coach during Tom Brady’s first three-game losing streak since 2002? Certainly not Bowles, who inherited a more difficult situation than he may have bargained for. Tampa Bay has a get-right game against a banged-up Falcons team, but Atlanta coach Arthur Smith is hitting his stride.

Breer: Baker Mayfield. He hasn’t been playing well, and he got testy with reporters this week (which, to be clear, I kind of like). His team is flagging, and history shows us quarterbacks only get so many chances to be starters. So Mayfield has a lot on the line right now, both team- and career-wise, with maybe the best defense in the league on the schedule this week.

Which team will everyone be talking about after Week 5?

Orr: The Seahawks. Juxtaposed against the mild start by Russell Wilson in Denver, if Geno Smith scores big again, the narrative will begin to get out of control for the Broncos. This is especially true if Seattle climbs above .500 against a formidable Saints defense. While unlikely, we all might have to confront some sobering realities about the Wilson era in Seattle on Monday if there is a Seahawks revival on hand.

Breer: The Bills reestablishing themselves as football’s best team. They’re getting a little healthier, and they found a little something last week against the Ravens. They’re also playing a Steelers team that I think is worse than the public realizes, so a Bills blowout here will probably get a little more attention than it should.

Who is your MVP through four weeks?

Orr: Shohei Oht— just kidding. Wrong post. For me, it’s Lamar Jackson. No one is doing more for their team. If Jackson was somehow Justin Tucker’s emergency backup, I’d hand him the trophy right now. I also have to give a nod to Cooper Rush, who has kept a good Cowboys team in playoff contention during Dak Prescott’s absence with a thumb injury.

Breer: I’m gonna agree with Conor. Jackson’s taken his game to the next level, with an enhanced ability to manipulate defenses from the pocket, making it even more difficult to defend him. And my runner-up right now would be Patrick Mahomes, just because I think we’ve normalized his greatness, and his greatness should still be appreciated (especially now, with his ability to navigate the exit of Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs’ offense).

Which underdog has the best shot to win outright in Week 5?

Orr: I know we’re not talking about a point spread but if Seattle is getting 5.5 against the Saints this weekend, I’m taking it. While I am not a gambler, I am so far dominating in SI Gambling and Fantasy’s weekly best bets, calling both the Jaguars’ upset over the Chargers and the Patriots’ cover against the Packers. So why wouldn’t you entrust a large sum of money to a person with a small sample size of success?

Breer: I’m intrigued by the Jets getting the Dolphins at home. Zach Wilson played great in the fourth quarter last week. Their skill group’s going to be a handful for the Dolphins. And Miami’s starting Teddy Bridgewater (who’s plenty competent, but isn’t their starter) and had a really weird week leading up to this one.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET

Bill Enright: The Ravens and Bengals take center stage in a pivotal AFC North battle with first place in the division on the line. No wonder the points total (48.5) is the third-highest of any game in Week 5, as these teams have some exciting offensive playmakers and their defenses haven’t done much to slow down their opposition.

Using SI Sportsbook’s bet builder we can create a same-game parlay with a very lucrative payout. Starting with who will win and then adding some player props results in a +325 same-game parlay, bet $100 and you win $325; bet $10 and you win $32.50. Here’s the breakdown:

Pick: Ravens to win (moneyline)

Pick: Tee Higgins over 55 receiving yards

Pick: Joe Burrow over 255 passing yards

Pick: Mark Andrews over 50 receiving yards

While I am banking on the Ravens to win the game outright, I’m also betting on their defense to surrender a lot of yards to Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins. Burrow has exceeded 255 yards passing in three of four games and the Ravens are dead last in passing yards allowed with a league worst 315. The third-year passer torched Baltimore in two games last season, throwing for 416 and 525 yards. Burrow’s top playmaker has not been Ja’Marr Chase, but rather Higgins, who leads the defending AFC champions with 315 yards. Higgins surpassed the 55-yard total in three consecutive games. The last leg of this same-game parlay is Andrews eclipsing 50 yards, which he’s done in three of four contests in 2022. Last season, the Ravens tight end finished with 173 yards in two games against the Bengals.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Orr: If the Titans beat the Commanders this weekend, at what point are we going to talk about how damn good Mike Vrabel is as a head coach…and at what point are we going to start to wonder if the Commanders should want more from Ron Rivera? While Washington is not in a position to be choosy at the moment, 1–4 in the doldrums of the NFC East isn’t a part of the plan.

Breer: I’m really interested to see how Brady plays Sunday. He’s obviously dealt with a lot this week. Coming off a loss like Sunday’s to the Chiefs would normally be the kind of place where we’d see the killer come out in the quarterback. Will we see that against the Falcons? Or will a suddenly feisty Atlanta team show us something? Underrated, intriguing game in the early window.

More NFL Coverage:

• Why Frank Reich and Chris Ballard Should Keep Their Jobs
• Cole Beasley Retires After One Game With Buccaneers
• Pats CB Says It Was ‘Disrespectful’ for Rodgers to Throw at Him