The story lines we’ll be watching closely, including the streaking Giants at the Jaguars. Plus, the Jets are on a roll, too, headed for a showdown at Denver with the reeling Broncos.
Welcome to Week 7 featuring two of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Jets and Giants. That’s right. The Jets (4–2) and Giants (5–1) have won a combined six consecutive games and look to extend their three-game winning streaks on the road at Jacksonville and Denver. Right now, the Giants are the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoff picture and the Jets are the No. 6 seed. But there’s still plenty of football to be played, so get ready for another crucial week on the NFL schedule.
To get it kicked off, Albert Breer and Conor Orr will take you through the Sunday and Monday games, noting the best matchups and what they’ll be watching.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
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Giants at Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: The Giants come in as underdogs despite their 5–1 record. Brian Daboll is simply outcoaching his opponents and manufacturing situations that are nearly impossible for defensive coordinators to prepare for. If we thought he was bringing with him a system from Buffalo, those illusions have quickly disappeared. He’ll meet his match in Mike Caldwell, the Jaguars’ defensive coordinator, who has creatively deployed a very young and very athletic defense with the kind of tools that could stymie the moving pieces in Daboll’s scheme. — Conor Orr
Falcons at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: The Falcons are not going to be able to sneak up on teams for much longer after having won three of four—and they had a good shot at making it four in a row if not for the dreadful roughing-the-passer call on Grady Jarrett in Tampa. In those four games, Arthur Smith’s innovative run game has rolled up 179, 202, 151 and 168 yards. I’m picking the Bengals. But an upset wouldn’t be a shock. — Albert Breer
Colts at Titans, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: In a matchup that feels destined for the entertainment outpost that is Thursday Night Football, these two underperforming but gritty entities meet up in a Sunday tilt destined to look a lot like two Honda Accords slowly banging into one another in a medical complex parking lot. Both teams have a chance to eviscerate their early-season woes and take the control panels in an AFC South that we figured to be much better at this point. — C.O.
Jets at Broncos, 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday: This feels like two teams headed in very different directions. The Jets have won four of five, just beat Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau and a loaded rookie class—from Sauce Gardner to Garrett Wilson to Breece Hall—has been a huge part of it for a very young team that gets the Patriots next week. Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost three straight, blowing late leads in overtime losses the past two weeks. So this is a big spot for both groups. — A.B.
Seahawks at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: This is a huge get-right game for the Chargers’ offense, which is next on our collective you-know-what list for keeping Justin Herbert in a corner. And no one keeps Herbert in a corner for very long. We’ll see if last week’s defensive surge from the Chargers was just a mirage, seeing as they were playing the Broncos, or if this was the start of a stretch where they can routinely hold professional offenses below 21 points. The Chargers will try to do so against the upstart Seahawks, who, if nothing else, can score points. — C.O.
Chiefs at 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: Among those on the 49ers’ injury report: Arik Armstead, Mike McGlinchey, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward, Nick Bosa, Jimmie Ward and Trent Williams. Injuries wound up biting San Francisco in Atlanta last week, and it won’t get any easier this week with the Chiefs looking to get right after a tough loss to the Bills in Week 6. — A.B.
FANTASY BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK
Josh Jacobs will post 125-plus scrimmage yards vs. the Texans. Houston has the league’s worst defense against running backs, allowing an average of 30.4 fantasy points per game. They’re also allowing a league-high 133.4 rushing yards and 175.8 scrimmage yards to the position. What’s more? Four runners have gone for at least 109 scrimmage yards when facing Houston’s defense the first five games of the season. — Michael Fabiano
• Fabiano’s Week 7 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DEF
QUICK QUESTIONS
The worst offseason move through six weeks?
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Orr: Trading for Russell Wilson. And this is with 20/20 hindsight, of course. I think we were all betting Wilson wasn’t the problem in Seattle. But it seems a similar malaise and discontent with the scheme has followed him from his latter years in the Pacific Northwest.
Breer: Wilson’s a tough one to beat, given the draft picks and contract involved. But the Carson Wentz trade, to this point, hasn’t exactly worked out, either—and it seems like the potential for it to turn around is less in D.C. than in Denver. I don’t think the Commanders will be surprised if Taylor Heinicke is an improvement over Wentz. And if that winds up being the case … Not great that you gave up second- and third-round picks to get Wentz.
What is your one big prediction for Week 7?
Orr: How’s this for big? The Packers and the Raiders will both put up 40 points. These offenses are struggling but have slowly begun to reveal the strands of potential (even if Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur can’t agree on the meaning of simplify). Each of them has a relative FCS school opponent this weekend they can take their frustration out on.
Breer: Dak Prescott will throw for 350 yards in his return to the lineup—with the coaches looking to get their quarterback loose, and finding a Lions defense willing to accommodate at AT&T Stadium. And that’ll be a part of a convincing win for the Cowboys after their loss to the Eagles.
Which team most needs a win in Week 7?
Orr: The Broncos. At home against the surging Jets, this could be a week for the Broncos to break out offensively, or fall victim to a red-hot defense that just destroyed a system also run (in theory) by the Broncos. There are all sorts of issues in Denver. If the Broncos somehow slip this far out of contention in a crowded AFC this early, we could see the situation getting hairy.
Breer: The Raiders. They’re not that far off from 5–0, with their four losses by a total of 14 points, and every game coming down to the final two minutes. But at some point, you have to start winning—and with a very manageable stretch of the schedule, a loss to the Texans out of the bye would be devastating.
Which coach or player is most under pressure in Week 7?
Orr: Andy Reid. Pressure is a relative term here, but the 49ers coming to town is no joke after a difficult loss to the Bills. While losing streaks are inevitable, do you really want a minor crisis of confidence on your hands? There are a few coaches other than Kyle Shanahan I’d rather see on my worst weeks (even before he has Christian McCaffrey on his roster!).
Breer: Russell Wilson. Let’s call it like it is—the 33-year-old’s best effort this year came in the loss to the Raiders and he’s been pretty mediocre to put it kindly. The trade, the contract, the persona … all of it plays into what’s circulating around the Broncos’ quarterback right now. And this week, they get a Jets defense that just gave Aaron Rodgers fits.
Which team will everyone be talking about after Week 7?
Orr: The Lions. Dan Campbell is literally dripping with sweat after every practice, game or press conference. He’s likely the kind of coach who sees the team just about to turn the corner, even if the bounces aren’t going its way. One avenue? Stun the Cowboys in Dak Prescott’s return and debut a less porous defense against one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
Breer: The Bengals. As we said earlier, the Falcons will be a game opponent—but it sure felt like Cincinnati found some of its 2021 magic in the second half in New Orleans. The Bengals’ revamped offensive line and facing a lot of two-high shell looks has put them on the kind of trajectory last year’s Chiefs rode back to the AFC title game, which is to say it’d make sense if now is when they start coming together.
Which underdog has the best shot to win outright in Week 7?
Orr: For once, I’ll take the easy way out and say the Giants. As we noted above, this is going to be a solid coaching matchup, but the Giants are getting 3.5 with the spread and have never had their doors blown off in the Daboll era. The Jaguars are good, but not good enough to get out to an early two-score lead and put them away.
Breer: The Jets. Yes, I know they’re playing in Denver. Yeah, maybe they come back to earth. But it’s hard not to believe they’re a better team based on how both have played of late.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET
The Dolphins started the season 3–0 but are now on a three-game losing skid. Luckily, Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and ready to start for Miami as it hosts the Steelers. Look for the home team to get back in the win column with a victory on Sunday night. Using SI Sportsbook’s bet builder, we can avoid laying the 7.5 points with the Dolphins and just take them on the moneyline. Combine the moneyline bet with the over (44.5) and bettors can lock in plus-money odds of +130. This same-game parlay yields a solid return of $13 for every $10 wagered. — Bill Enright
FINAL THOUGHTS
Orr: If you don’t at least have Mike Tomlin on your Coach of the Year radar, I’d say now is the time to correct that. Perhaps in a few years, when we understand the breadth of circumstances around this team, we’ll know what a gritty masterpiece this has been.
Breer: One thing that’s on my radar, with hot-seat talk already heating up—how the new windfall of TV money could affect owners’ willingness to eat years on the contracts of coaches and GMs. And one reason why is because what’s left on some of those deals might not look like so much a few years from now. After all, if you’re willing to pay Sean Payton $20 million or $25 million per year, what’s it to you to swallow, say, three years and $21 million of an old contract to fire your current coach?
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