The SI Gambling team, plus our colleagues at the MMQB evaluate their best bets against the spread for Week 9 in the NFL.
Over the course of this year's 2020 NFL season, the SI Gambling team, along with a few of our friends from the SI MMQB NFL team are putting our collective heads together to pick our top game of the week against the spread. We'll keep track over the course of the year for bragging rights as well as transparency. After four straight weeks of a winning record, just like the favorites in Week 8, we also took a hit, going 3-9-0 against the spread (ATS). Despite the rough week, our overall record this season is still above. 500: 54-47-1 ATS overall
Over at SI PRO, the "Vegas Whispers" NFL betting plays and information from SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo have now gone 43-28-0 ATS as well as 11-1-0 on Thursday Night Football. Yesterday for Packers vs. 49ers, we did not have an official "Vegas Whisper" play on the game. However, SI PRO members were alerted to an early play on this weekend's college football matchup between No. 8 Florida and No. 5 Georgia from Jacksonville.
Before checking out the team's selections and "best bets," here are the latest Week 9 NFL lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
NFL Best Bets for Week 9
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (+3)
I’m kicking myself for not jumping on when this game was at Seahawks -2.5, but I’ll still settle for three points against a Bills team that’s done little to impress since the first few games of the season.
We know the level Russell Wilson has played at all season long, and the Bills have remained a run-funnel defense while struggling for consistency vs the pass as well. Buffalo has also not generated the type of pass rush we saw from them a season ago; dropping from a sack percentage of 8.11% to 6.81% in 2020.
For as much excitement as DFS players will have rostering Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs against Seattle’s secondary, gaining Jamal Adams back should be a massive difference in the secondary. Additionally, Seattle also should have Carlos Dunlap, Snacks Harrison and Rasheem Green in the mix as well.
Also, via Matthew Friedman, since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, his Seahawks teams have gone 14-7-3 in early start East Coast games.
BEST BET: Seahawks (-3)
Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) | TOTAL: 50.5
When you need to Goggle who the starting quarterback is going to be as an injury replacement for an NFL team you know you have a best bet on your hands. At less than the prime number of seven, the number is right to jump on the Houston Texans. I realize it is risky laying points with a team that is 1-6 SU on the road, but Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew is out and with Jake Luten making the start I will back Deshaun Watson to put up enough points to cover the less than touchdown spread. Look for JJ Watt and the Texans to create at least a few turnovers and stack the box against RB James Robinson. Three weeks ago the Texans got their only win both SU and ATS of the season and it was against these same Jaguars, 30-14. Without Minshew, back the Texans to get their second double-digit win of the season against an AFC South rival that is also 1-6 SU.
BEST BET: Houston Texans (-6.5)
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-4) | TOTAL: 49.5
The Miami Dolphins make the trip across the county to take on the Arizona Cardinals. Last week in his NFL debut, Tua Tagovailoa completed 12 passes for 93 yards, and while it was cool to see Tua get the win, do we really know what this offense will be moving forward? The Cardinals are 1-6 in their over/under record this year, and the Dolphins are 2-5 OV/UN. The total on this contest opened up at 48 and public money has moved the line up to 49.5. I will gladly slide in and take the under.
BEST BET: Under 49.5
Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)
Raiders at Chargers (-1) | TOTAL: 51.5
I took the Chargers to beat the Broncos last week, and it looked pretty good until they, well, "Chargered" (blew a big lead and found a way to grab defeat from the hands of victory). You get the point.
The Raiders have some big wins on their resume, none bigger than a triumph over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, in addition to good victories over the Saints, Panthers and Browns. The Lightning Bolts have a history of finding ways to lose, and I expect Las Vegas to take this one in what should be a high-scoring contest at SoFi Stadium.
BEST BET: Raiders (+1)
Bill Enright (@BillEnright)
Patrick Mahomes TD Passes vs. Panthers O/U 2.5 (+120)
ANALYSIS: It’s rare to get positive odds for anything involving the Chiefs and their incredible playmakers. Yet here we are staring a prop bet with positive odds for the best Quarterback in the league. Mahomes is coming off his best game of the season where he tossed five scores and finds himself in another game with an Over/Under of more than 52 points. Mahomes has too many weapons at his disposal for the Panthers to cover and he’ll be linking up with them three or more times in the end-zone in Week 9.
BEST BET: Mahomes OVER 2.5 TD passes (+120)
Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills | TOTAL: 54.5
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks (6-1) head to the east coast following a 37-27 win at home against San Francisco last week. The final score actually flatters the 49ers as Seattle was up 30-7 early in the fourth quarter. Josh Allen and Bills (6-2) are playing a second straight game at Bills Stadium. Buffalo snapped a 0-7 straight up losing streak against New England with a 24-21 Week 8 win over the Patriots. Seattle is 8-5 all-time against Buffalo but this is the first meeting since the Seahawks defeated the Bills 31-25 at home in 2016. Seattle leads the NFL with 34.3 points per game on offense while Buffalo is averaging 24.8 PPG which ranks 18th overall.
Buffalo lit up the scoreboard during their first four games. The Bills outscored their opponents by a 123-100 margin to open with a 4-0 record. Since then, the Bills have been outscored by 99-75 count and have posted a 2-2 record. Seattle has allowed a ton of points on defense (28.4 PPG) but their offense has been almost unstoppable. Five of the Hawks’ six wins have been by five points or more. The Bills barely hung on last week against the Patriots who are averaging 19 PPG on offense. I can’t see the Buffalo defense shutting down Seattle wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket who are tied for the league lead with seven TD catches each this season.
Seattle is a -3 point favorite at DraftKings – Lay the line and soar with the Seahawks.
BEST BET: Seahawks (-3)
Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts | TOTAL: 48.5
For whatever reason teams who have a Thursday night football game coming up have been playing poorly the Sunday before that game. We saw it the previous week with the Packers losing at home to the Vikings and the 49ers losing at Seattle and if you go back through the season you’ll notice less than stellar performances by the teams in these spots. That’s just the cherry on top in this game however, as the Ravens and an upset Marquise “Hollywood” Brown get to venture onto the fast track in Indianapolis to have a bounce back game after losing to their rivals at home last week. The Colts next game is a Thursday night divisional showdown with the Tennessee Titans and I expect them to be flat here as the Ravens should get a lot of pressure on Philip Rivers and control this game from start to finish.
BEST BET: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5)
Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) | TOTAL: 48
When in doubt, rotate back to Lamar and the Ravens. After a few weeks of picking bad teams to win against other bad teams, I am rolling with Lamar and the Ravens this weekend. The defense will pressure Rivers into some quick throws and when Rivers panics, he is very generous with the ball and will give the Ravens some great opportunities in good field position. The Colts defense has been really solid but the Ravens are not your normal offense to prepare for. I see Lamar take this game into his own hands to guarantee a win, much like Russel Wilson does when the Seahawks need to grind one out. My bold prediction is 100 yards for Lamar and that means the Ravens will get the W
BEST BET: Ravens (-1.5)
Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings -4.5 | TOTAL: 50.5
BEST BET: Vikings (-4.5)
Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-2.5) |T OTAL: 42.5
Things just may be heading in the right direction for Washington after their lackluster start. Kyle Allen has been a validated upgrade at QB, completing 68% of his passes coupled with a 4:1 TD/INT ratio, and their scheduled outlook over the next 3-4 weeks looks very winnable. Washington will look to avenge their one-point loss to the Gmen a month ago, after missing a two point conversion late in the game. Washington's defense matches up well here and with the favorite in this match up going 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings, I believe covering just a field goal is very doable in this spot. Short week for the Giants and Washington fully rested after their week 8 bye.
BEST BET: Washington Football Team -2.5
Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills | TOTAL: 54.5
Xs and Os aside, two things that get overlooked with the Seahawks: They’ve been meh at home but really good on the road the past three seasons, and they are even better against teams that don’t see Russell Wilson often. The Seahawks are 10-2 straight-up and 9-2-1 against the spread over their last 12 road games against non-division opponents, including 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS against AFC opponents.
BEST BET: Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+14) | TOTAL: 41.5
The Steelers’ defense has suffocated actual good offenses this year, and now they’ll take on a Cowboys offense that has torpedoed and will be down to its fourth quarterback. Are the Cowboys going to score 10 points? They’ve scored 10, 3 and 9 in their last three games. There’s a real risk the Steelers’ defense could outscore the Cowboys’ offense, given their propensity for pick-sixes. The Steelers have scored 26 points in every game this year and there’s no reason to think they can’t win 26–10 or 31–14 (or 31 –3?). So don’t let the big spread scare you too much.
BEST BET: Steelers (-14)