Patriots Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

Jul 12, 2022

The Patriots returned to the playoffs last season with a 10-7 record, but their over/under at SI Sportsbook for the upcoming season is just 8.5 wins.

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones went on an incredible run last season and proved to be an impressively accurate passer in his debut NFL season.

Jones, drafted 15th overall by New England in the 2021 NFL draft, posted the second-highest completion percentage (67.6%) and the sixth-highest passer rating (92.5) for a rookie quarterback with at least 300 attempts in NFL history.

But with no Josh McDaniels and some combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge likely calling the plays, can we expect him to improve?

Combine that with how little the Patriots did to improve their team in the offseason and my gut reaction is to look at the under here.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

New England Patriots Over/Under: 8.5 - O (-110) | U (-125)

2021-2022 record: 10-7; Second AFC East; 6-seed; Lost wild-card round at Bills

AFC East future odds: +400 (Tied-second)

AFC future odds: +2000 (Tied-11th)

Super Bowl future odds: +3300 (Tied-17th)

Key additions: WR DeVante Parker, CB Malcolm Butler, S Jabrill Peppers

Key losses: CB J.C. Jackson, OL Shaq Mason, OC Josh McDaniels

Patriots Country Offseason Grade: C-

Coming off a disappointing season in which a 9-4 start deteriorated into an embarrassing 30-point playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots responded by making no drastic moves in the offseason. Defensively, New England lost a Pro Bowl playmaker in Jackson and moved to replace him with Butler and Texans’ free agent Mitchell. While most thought Bill Belichick would look to improve a sagging linebacker corps, he merely acquired Browns’ castoff Mack Wilson and, surprisingly, didn’t address the position in 10 draft choices. On offense, the Patriots filled the void left by Mason and Karras by reaching in the first round for Strange and then curiously using picks on two of their deepest positions: quarterback and running back. The departure of long-time offensive play caller Josh McDaniels to the Las Vegas Raiders left the immediate future of second-year quarterback Mack Jones in the unproven hands of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. — Richie Whitt

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Schedule:

Week 1: At Dolphins
Week 2: At Steelers
Week 3: Ravens
Week 4: At Packers
Week 5: Lions
Week 6: At Browns
Week 7: Bears
Week 8: At Jets
Week 9: Colts
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Jets
Week 12: At Vikings
Week 13: Bills
Week 14: At Cardinals
Week 15: At Raiders
Week 16: Bengals
Week 17: Dolphins
Week 18: At Bills

In Bill Belichick’s 22 seasons as the Patriots’ head coach, his team has only posted a losing season twice: his inaugural season in 2000 when the team went 5-11 and 2020—the first season without Tom Brady—when the team went 7-9.

History says it would be foolish to bet against them.

So, let’s break it down.

Let’s start with the AFC East divisional matchups. The Patriots have two things that could be challenging.

Bob Breidenbach/The Providence Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

One, the Bills are not only the division favorites but also to win the Super Bowl. The Bill’s win total is set at 11.5. You can read more about that here. It’s fair to say it would be difficult for the Patriots to win both matchups with the Bills, and a split will be the best-case scenario. Let’s be generous and call that one win.

Two, the Dolphins are expected to be a much-improved team. With new head coach Mike McDaniel at the helm and the additions of Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson and Chase Edmonds—to name just a few—Tua Tagovailoa is also expected to take a step forward this season. Las Vegas is giving them the same respect as the Patriots, setting their win total also at 8.5. So, let’s say this series is also split. That’s two wins for New England.

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The Jets should remain at the bottom of the division and the Pats should be able to win both of their matchups. Our total is now at four.

Now, let’s check out the other AFC matchups.

The Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Steelers, Browns and Raiders are all on the schedule. I can see Pittsburgh and Cleveland easily going the way of the Patriots, while the Colts, Raiders, Bengals and Ravens will all be tough to beat.

Let’s call that three wins. Our total is now at seven.

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Finally, the NFC teams the Patriots matchup with this year are the Packers, Vikings, Lions, Bears and Cardinals.

The Vikings, Packers and Cardinals will be tough to beat on the road. I’ll give them the Lions and Bears at home, and we are at nine.

its tough to bet against the Pats, so let’s take the better odds and count on another winning season.