PGA U.S. Open Betting Preview

Betting analysis for the 2022 PGA U.S. Open. Rory McIlroy is the favorite at SI Sportsbook, followed by Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler.

The U.S. Open returns this year to Brookline, Mass., for the first time since 1988 when Curtis Strange posted a score of six under par to edge Nick Faldo in a playoff.

Over the past seven seasons, six top-ranking players (Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka – 2, Bryson Dechambeau and Jon Rahm) won the U.S. Open. To get a feel for the top 10 players over the last five years, here’s a look at the results:

Here's a look at the previous five winners by their betting odds:

2021 – Jon Rahm (10-1)
2020 – Bryson DeChambeau (20-1)
2019 – Gary Woodland (80-1)
2018 – Brooks Koepka (20-1)
2017 – Brooks Koepka (30-1)

SI Sportsbook has a complete list of odds for the 2022 US Open.

Over the past five seasons, Koepka and Xander Schauffele had the best success in the U.S. Open. Koepka has two wins, a second and a fourth, while sitting out in 2020. Schauffele finished in the top 10 each year (fifth, sixth, thirrd, fifth and seventh).

Koepka enters the event with +3300 odds at SI Sportsbook. Unfortunately, he has only played in two tournaments (MC at the Masters and 55th at the PGA Championship) over the last 12 weeks. I love his resume, but Koepka looks overpriced based on his 2022 form (four missed cuts and two top 10s over 10 events).

As for Schauffele, he went 52 under par at the Zurich Classic and AT&T Bryon Nelson, leading to a win and a fifth-place finish. Schauffele followed his success with a 13th and 18th in his next two events. At +2200, he looks poised to be in the hunt again.

Bet on the U.S. Open at SI Sportsbook

Will Zalatoris (+2500)

Based on his recent success in major tournaments (Masters – sixth and second; PGA Championship – second and eighth; U.S. Open – MC and sixth; Open Championship – No event and WD), Zalatoris should be in the heat of the battle again this year. Over his past seven tournaments, he failed to make the cut twice while delivering five top-10s (fifth, sixth, fourth, second and fifth). Zalatoris still doesn’t have a PGA win over his 43 chances. It wouldn’t surprise me to see his first win come in a major.

Jon Rahm (+1500)

When in top form, Rahm has the game to be a factor each week, highlighted by his five tournament run (First, third, third, ninth, and second) from his U.S. Open win to the Tour Championship in early September. Since the start of 2022, he played on the weekend in all 12 events, highlighted by his win at the Mexico Championship. Rahm is the defending champ with five other top-10 finishes this year.

Justin Thomas (+1200)

Besides a dud at the Charles Schwab Challenge (MC), Thomas has been impressive since the start of November (10 top-10 finishes over his previous 15 events), highlighted by a win at the PGA Championship. Over the past six trips to the U.S. Open, he finished 19th, eighth, MC, 25th, ninth and 32nd. His two major titles came at the PGA Championship.

Rory McIlroy (+1000)

A late run (64) at the Masters on Sunday led to McIlroy finishing second, followed by success over his subsequent four events (fifth, eighth, 18th and first). Over his previous three U.S. Opens, he improved slightly (ninth, eighth and seventh), coming after missing the cut in 2016, 2017 and 2018. His last major win came in 2014 (Open Championship and PGA Championship). His resume at the U.S. Open is the weakest of all the majors (five missed cuts in 12 tournaments). The bottom line with McIlroy is finding the fire with his putter.

Scottie Scheffler (+1200)

Since December, Scheffler has won four tournaments with two runner-up finishes over 14 events. His only missed cut came at the PGA Championship. He already has a win and four top 10s in majors over the previous three seasons. Scheffler missed the cut in his first U.S. Open in 2019 with a significant improvement in 2021 (7th).

Top Mid-Range Options

Sam Burns (+2800)

Since last April, Burns has had five wins while finishing in the top 10 in six other tournaments. He will be making his fourth appearance at the U.S. Open (two missed cuts and 41st). Burns has never finished higher than 20th in a major in his eight entries. His game is on the rise, and he played well in his last two events (first and fourth).

Joaquin Niemann (+3000)

Despite a rising golf career, Niemann has yet to be a factor in a major over his 12 chances. However, his play did trend forward over his previous two Masters (40th and 35th), PGA Championships (30th and 23rd) and U.S. Opens (23rd and 31st). He had a win this season (The Genesis Invitational) and a strong finish (third) two weeks ago at the Memorial Tournament.

LIV Drama

The PGA Tour would hate to see any player joining the LIV Golf Tour to win at the U.S. Open. It would create drama at the event, plus generate more conversations about the competing event. The players with the best chance of winning are Dustin Johnson (+4000), Louis Oosthuizen (+6600) and Patrick Reed (+8000).

Johnson has a US Open win (2016) and five other top 10s (sixth, third, second, fourth and eighth) in his 14 chances. However, his play has been below his previous success this season, leading to three missed cuts and no finish higher than fourth. I don’t see the fire in his game to take down this year’s title.

Oosthuizen has an exceptional recent resume at the U.S. Open (Second, 23rd, 23rd, 16th, 7th, third and second). At 66-1, he is a worthy flier despite unimpressive results in his seven events on the PGA Tour (14th, 30th, 42nd, 62nd, 35th, MC and 60th).

The best player to stick it to the PGA would be Reed. He’s always had an edge to his game with a love/hate relationship with fans. His play has been competitive over his eight seasons at the US Open (35th, 14th, MC, 13th, fouth, 32nd, 13th, and 19th).

Reed flashed a couple of weeks ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge (seventh), but his game has been off in 2022. He putts well with an excellent short game, and his odds (+8000) look favorable.

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