Betting analysis of the National League wild-card series between the third-seeded Cardinals and sixth-seeded Phillies.
The grueling 162-game major league baseball season has come to an end.
The postseason starts with six teams from each division. Four teams earned first-round byes (Yankees, Astros, Braves and Dodgers). The other eight franchise pair up in three-game series over the Columbus Day weekend.
Here’s a look at the National League wild-card series matchup between the NL Central champion and third-seeded Cardinals and sixth-seeded Phillies. The Cardinals are favored at SI Sportsbook to win the series and face the second-seeded Braves in the NLDS. Philadelphia won the season series over the Cardinals (4-3) with a slight edge in run scored (22-20).
Bet on the MLB Playoffs at SI Sportsbook
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No. 6 Phillies (87-75) vs. No. 3 Cardinals (93-69) Odds
- Series odds: Phillies (+110) | Cardinals (-137)
- Cardinals odds: STL in 2 (+225) | STL in 3 (+225)
- Phillies odds: PHI in 2 (+300) | PHI in 3 (+300)
- Series length: Two games (-225) | Three games (-225)
- Game 1: Friday, Oct. 7, 2022 | 2:07 p.m. ET | ABC
- Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022 | 8:37 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Game 3 (if needed): Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 | 7:37 p.m. ET | ESPN2
The Phillies’ offense has more depth and star power than St. Louis if Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos regain this previous form. If the game is close late, the pendulum swings toward St. Louis’ bullpen.
Harper was well on his way to his best season with Philadelphia over his first 65 games, hitting .318 over 242 at bats with 49 runs, 15 home runs, 48 RBIs and nine steals. Unfortunately, a broken thumb from a pitch led to about eight weeks on the injured list. He hit .227 over his final 128 at bats with 14 runs, three homers, 17 RBIs and two steals. The Phillies can’t win without Harper playing at a high level.
The signing of Castellanos will go down as a bust in 2022. He only hit .263 with 56 runs, 13 home runs, 62 RBIs and seven stolen bases over 524 at bats. Over the previous seasons, Castellanos averaged about 83 runs, 25 home runs and 84 RBIs over 550 at bats. An oblique issue cost him the first 26 days in September.
Philadelphia right-handed starter Aaron Nola has four poor games (five, eight, four and four runs allowed) over his final nine starts, while turning in a 3.78 ERA over this span with 70 strikeouts over 52 1/3 innings.
Zack Wheeler missed a month late in the year due to a forearm issue. His stuff played well over his final three starts (one run over 15 innings with one walk and 15 strikeouts). From July 13 to August 20, he allowed 21 runs, 49 baserunners and seven home runs over 43 innings. If asked to pitch higher-leveraged innings, Wheeler may lose his effectiveness due to a potential underlying issue.
Paul Goldschmidt enters the postseason in a 30-game slump (.229 over 105 at bats with 14 runs, two home runs, 10 RBIs). Nolan Arenado also struggled in September (.221 with nine runs, two home runs, 14 RBIs and two steals over 95 at bats).
After starting his Cardinal career with one run allowed over 25 2/3 innings with four wins and 24 strikeouts, southpaw starter Jordan Montgomery lost his groove down the stretch (21 runs, 53 baserunners, and six home runs over 38 innings). Adam Wainwright looked out of gas in September (23 runs, 55 baserunners, and 13 strikeouts over 28 2/3 innings). Miles Mikolas served up 10 home runs over his final 63 2/3 innings, leading to a 4.10 ERA.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals turned in an impressive season, considering they had piecemeal their starting rotation. Montgomery and Jose Quintana were great midseason additions. Goldschmidt and Arenado led their offense, but the improbable run by Albert Pujols over the final six weeks (.310 with 22 runs, 16 home runs and 42 RBIs over 126 at bats) was the reason top watch St. Louis down the stretch. The Cardinals also caught pockets of helpful offense from Juan Yepez, Brendan Donovan, Corey Dickerson and Lars Nootbaar. They went 53-28 at home with fewer runs allowed (283 – 354 on the road). St. Louis went 39-21 over its final 70 games, highlighted by an excellent August (22-7).
Pitching Stats
- 10th in MLB in ERA (3.79)
- 32nd in strikeouts (1,117)
- 11th in bullpen ERA (3.61)
Batting Stats
- Fifth in runs (772)
- Ninth in home runs (197)
- 11th in steals (95)
- 10th in batting average (.252)
- Fouth in on-base percentage (.325)
Top Three Hitters
- Paul Goldschmidt – .317 with 106 runs, 35 home runs, 115 RBIs and seven steals
- Nolan Arenado – .293 with 73 runs, 30 home runs and 103 RBIs
- Tommy Edman – .265 with 95 runs, 13 home runs, 57 RBIs and 32 steals
Top Three Pitchers
- Jordan Montgomery – 9-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 158 strikeouts over 178 1/3 innings
- Miles Mikolas – 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 202 1/3 innings
- Adam Wainwright – 11-12 with a 3.71 ERA and 143 strikeouts over 191 2/3 innings
Closer
- Ryan Helsley – 9-1 with 19 saves, 1.25 ERA and 94 strikeouts over 64 2/3 innings
Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries to Harper, Castellanos and Jean Segura led to the Phillies underachieving offensively in 2022. J.T. Realmuto shined over his final 71 games (.311 with 39 runs, 17 home runs, 55 RBIs and 11 steals over 257 at- bats). The combination of Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins with Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott gave Philadelphia a blend of experience and developing young players. Their bullpen is a mess, with no clear-cut ninth-inning arm. The Phillies have two front-line starters (Nola and Wheeler), giving an edge in a short series. They limped into the playoffs after going 7-13 after Sept 14 with Philly scoring three runs or fewer in 10 of those losses.
Pitching Stats
- 18th in ERA (3.97)
- 10th in strikeouts (1,423)
- 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.27)
Batting Stats
- Seventh in runs (747)
- Sixth in home runs (205)
- Fifth in steals (105)
- Eighth in batting average (.253)
- Ninth in on-base percentage (.317)
Top Three Hitters
- Bryce Harper – .286 with 63 runs, 18 home runs, 65 RBIs and 11 steals
- Kyle Schwarber – .218 with 100 runs, 46 home runs, 94 RBIs and 10 steals
- J.T. Realmuto – .276 with 75 runs, 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and 21 steals
Top Three Pitchers
- Aaron Nola – 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA and 235 strikeouts over 205 innings
- Zack Wheeler – 12-7 with a 2.82 and 163 strikeouts over 153 innings
- Ranger Suarez – 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 155 1/3 innings
Closer
- Zach Eflin – 3-5 with one save, a 4.04 ERA, and 65 strikeouts over 75 2/3 innings
BET: Phillies (+110)
The length of potential power by the Phillies will be the edge in this series. The Cardinals’ pitching staff struggled to finish at bats with strikeouts, giving its opposition more chances to launch home runs. I’ll gamble on the better aces, hoping the bullpens don’t decide the wins in the eighth and ninth innings.
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