Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are in the mix, but don’t sleep on Joe Burrow.
In traditional fantasy football leagues, the quarterback position has the broadest range of outcomes when it comes to average draft position (ADP). Scoring, league size, format and draft site are some of the reasons for this.
When researching all 32 teams, I used the National Fantasy Football Championship for my ADP data and rankings. I didn’t mention any ADPs for quarterbacks because their site awards six points for passing touchdowns and uses 3RR (third-round reversal) for drafting.
I trust their rankings, but in this exercise I shifted to RTSports for quarterback ADPs. They have a straightforward 12-team format where quarterbacks score four points for passing touchdowns with PPR scoring. Each starting lineup requires two running backs, two wide receivers, and one tight end plus two flex positions (RB, WR or TE). Their quarterback ADPs vary from the NFFC due to site-listed projections, and their fantasy drafters have a slightly different view of the current quarterback inventory.
In home leagues, drafters use their recent league history to make their current draft decision. They also tend to play against the same group of friends, helping possible reads of draft flow.
Here’s a look at the top 12 quarterbacks over the past week at RTSports:
A cut above
Josh Allen is the clear-cut stud at most fantasy sites this year. He runs the ball well, and the Bills developed a top-tier passing attack last year. I don’t believe Buffalo has the best receiver corps in the NFL, but their wideouts get a ton of chances. Allen also gains an edge with rushing scores (31 over his 61 career games).
Tier Two Debate
Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert offer similar value in drafters’ minds. Mahomes gains his edge in name value and length of resume, but what will the loss of Tyreek Hill mean to the Chiefs’ passing game? And when will Travis Kelce have regression in his play at age 32? For me, Herbert gets extra credit for having a top pass-catching back, and I’m a fan of his depth at WR3 (Joshua Palmer) and WR4 (Jalen Guyton). The AFC West looks like a gold mine for passing production, pointing to a win for all four quarterbacks.
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After finishing the first run of the projections at Sports Illustrated, Kyler Murray landed in the two spot in my quarterback rankings. In many formats, rushing touchdowns count 50% more in four-point passing touchdown leagues. In addition, each rushing yard is worth 2.5 times more than a passing yard (0.1 per rushing yard compared to 0.04 for a passing yard). Based on this, many fantasy drafters misprice quarterbacks with value in the run game. Even with a high ranking, I’m neutral on Murray. He must regain his running ways to fulfill his projected outcome while figuring out how to utilize DeAndre Hopkins better after the star receiver returns from his six-game suspension. I can’t dismiss a rebound season by Murray, and he tends to be discounted in many drafts I’ve seen.
Lamar Jackson was on pace to set career-highs in passing yards in 2022, but his porous offensive line allowed 57 sacks (38 for Jackson). Their poor blocking also led to minimal running room at the goal line (career-low two rushing touchdowns). The Ravens’ receiving options behind Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews won’t light the fantasy world on fire, and Baltimore doesn’t throw many balls to their running backs.
The real deal or a fantasy steal
Undoubtedly, Joe Burrow has the most intriguing set of young wideouts in 2022. Ja’Marr Chase brings explosiveness while expecting to help more in the short passing game. Tee Higgins is a beast just waiting to spread his fantasy wings. The Bengals also made an effort to lengthen their passing window to give Burrow more time to get the ball downfield. His only knock is less value in the run game, but he is willing to punch in some short scores. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Burrow finish as the top-scoring quarterback in the league this season.
To believe or not to believe
When reviewing the potential of Jalen Hurts this year, keep in mind this passing outcome – 3,000 rushing yards and 4,000 passing yards. If the Eagles reach these plateaus, they will have one of the best offenses in the league. Philly has three exciting, developing receiving options – A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. When adding the fact that Hurts is the top-scoring runner on the team, there is a lot to like, even for those who don’t believe in his ability to spin the ball.
Dak Prescott appears to be the drop-off at quarterback. He comes off a season with a career-high in touchdowns (38), but the Cowboys’ wide receiving corps doesn’t have the same luster as in years past, at least on paper. Dallas has depth at running back, and CeeDee Lamb projects to be a stud with an improved opportunity this year. Dalton Schultz continues to show growth at tight end. Ultimately, Prescott needs Michael Gallup to regain his form after suffering a torn ACL and Jalen Tolbert to become relevant in his rookie season.
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When making the projections for all teams each season, I look at each team's current roster and recent history. I am not trying to match last year’s final rankings or develop something aligned with the current ADPs. That wouldn’t be fair to my research. At the same time, I want to have an open mind while not relying on my personal biases. A response to my early projections on Twitter left me wanting to justify some overlooked veterans in my rankings.
Don’t blame the name
Aaron Rodgers ranks 12th at RTSports and 14th in the NFFC as the draft season approaches the final week of July. He comes off two outstanding seasons, but the loss of Davante Adams leaves a big dent in his passing potential. Allen Lazard isn’t suddenly going to turn into a stud. Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb are past their primes, while Christian Watson brings big-play and future upside. Without his edge in scoring, Rodgers finished 11th (4,002), seventh (4,299) and 10th (4,115) in passing yards over the past three seasons. Over this span, Adams had 321 catches for 3,924 yards and 34 touchdowns. Rodgers is an excellent quarterback and makes the players around him better. What he can’t do is help his receivers get open. At best, he is a QB2 with a chance to improve as the season progresses.
Matthew Stafford helped the Rams win the Super Bowl last season. His top wide receiver (Cooper Kupp – 145/1947/16) finished with the best season in NFL history for a receiver, and Stafford gets plenty of credit for his results. Unfortunately, skill players in the NFL rarely repeat after great seasons. When adding that the Rams lost their left tackle to retirement, Stafford will undoubtedly face more pressure in 2022, thus shortening his passing window. He offers nothing in the run game, and his throwing has been limited in the offseason due to an injection in his balky right elbow.
The success of Tom Brady last season was helped immensely by the second-highest number of passes (719) in NFL history. He enters this season with no Rob Gronkowski and his second-best receiver (Chris Godwin) coming off a torn ACL. Tampa Bay has questions at tight end, and their top running back came in as a super heavyweight. The addition of Russell Gage helps, but regression across the board should be expected for Brady.
For most of his career, Russell Wilson ranked below the league average in passing attempts, but he excelled in most years delivering touchdowns. The escape from Seattle may allow him to attack earlier in the passing game. Denver will run the ball well, and they have some upside at wide receiver. Of the four veterans listed here, he looks best positioned to beat his expected value by his ADP.
On the rise
Derek Carr should fall into the breakout category after the Raiders made a change at head coach while adding an elite WR1 (Davante Adams). His completion rate (68.7) has been an area of strength over the last four seasons, and it should only get better with Adams on the roster. In addition, Las Vegas has a top-tier tight end (Darren Waller), and Hunter Renfrow is one of the most challenging receivers to cover over the short areas of the field. The Raiders will successfully run the ball in close, and their overall receiving corps lacks big-play threats. I view Carr as a steady quarterback option, and I could be undervaluing his potential in passing yards and touchdowns.
In the first edition of the projections, Trey Lance ranked ninth at quarterback. He gains extra credit for his value as a runner, but the 49ers have some concerns with their offensive line. Lance has much to prove in the passing games despite having an ultra-talented wideout (Deebo Samuel) and a high-ranking tight end (George Kittle). His training camp reports and preseason play will drive his fantasy value in 2022.
Kirk Cousins has been an overlooked quarterback for a couple of seasons. However, the emergence of Justin Jefferson has led to him drawing more attention as a potential top 12 quarterback in 2022. He has 70 touchdowns over the past two seasons despite averaging only 33.7 passes per game. The Vikings still have a top running back, pointing to a balanced offense again this year. Adam Thielen needs to stay healthy while Irv Smith improves his production after missing last season with a knee issue.
The Dolphins want to rock and roll offensively this year after adding Tyreek Hill in the offseason. Tua Tagovailoa now has three reliable options in the passing game, and Cedrick Wilson adds depth and big-play ability. Chase Edmonds improves their pass game out of the backfield. Tagovailoa does come with injury risk due to missing 10 games over his first two years in the NFL. His ability to chip in the run game helps his fantasy value.
When looking at my early rankings, the difference between the 11th quarterback (Tagovailoa) and the 15th option (Rodgers) is 13.29 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. The tradeoffs come with potential upside and market value. Does Brady (ADP of 86) create a fantasy edge over Tagolivoa (ADP of 143) when adding the gain at the other position earlier in the draft? The answer comes after 17 games of football. Do your research and bet your opinion.
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