Betting analysis of the American League wild-card series between the third-seeded Guardians and sixth-seeded Rays.
The first American League wild-card series kicks off Friday at 12:07 p.m. ET when the Guardians (3) host the Rays (6) at Progressive Field.
In the new MLB playoff format, each league has three wild-card teams advancing to the postseason, and the wild-card series is now a best of three.
The Guardians earned the 3-seed by winning the AL Central, while the Rays got in via the final wild-card berth and earned the 6-seed. The season series between these teams finished in favor of the Guardians, 4-2. The Guardians won two of three in each series, including the most recent in Cleveland in late September.
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No. 6 Rays (86-76) vs. No. 3 Guardians (92-70) Odds
- Series odds: Rays (+105) | Guardians (-125)
- Guardians odds: CLE in 2 (+225) | CLE in 3 (+275)
- Rays odds: TB in 2 (+275) | TB in 3 (+300)
- Series length: Two games (-125) | Three games (-125)
- Game 1: Friday, Oct. 7, 2022 | 12:07 p.m. ET | ESPN
- Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022 | 12:07 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Game 3 (if needed): Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 | 4:07 p.m. ET | ESPN
The Guardians were one of the bigger surprises this season, entering the season at 9-1 odds to win their division behind the White Sox (-222), Twins (+550), and Tigers (+550). The Rays entered the season with +270 odds to win the AL East, behind the Blue Jays (+165) and the Yankees (+225).
Cleveland won the AL Central not with power - it ranks 28th in ISO - but instead with patient and timely hitting and speed. The Guardians rank seventh in batting average, third in steals and 11th in average with runners in scoring position.
Rookie Steven Kwan has been a big part of Cleveland’s success, scoring 89 runs while swiping 19 bags and batting .298, while veteran Jose Ramirez has delivered yet another incredible season, logging 29 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a whopping 126 RBIs. Youngster Oscar Gonzalez, Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario and Josh Naylor all contribute to this pesky and effective lineup.
The Guardians’ pitching rotation has been solid as it finished with a 3.73 ERA. Ace Shane Bieber dominated down the stretch, posting a 2.48 ERA post All-Star Break. He has allowed only 0.81 home runs per nine innings in 2022.
Triston McKenzie has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA with the 15th-best K/9 rate in MLB, and Cal Quantrill has been effective by logging 15 wins this season.
The Guardians’ bullpen has been a major bright spot, pitching to the fifth-lowest ERA and converting 74% (third-best) of its save opportunities.
On the other side of this matchup are the Rays, who find themselves in the postseason for the fourth year in a row. They are a long way from their dominant 100-win 2021 season, but they can never be dismissed.
The Rays have continued to use more of a pitching-by-commitee approach and it’s been effective as Rays pitchers have combined for the fourth-lowest ERA in MLB. Southpaw Shane McClanahan has been their lights-out ace, fishing the season with a 2.54 ERA while striking batters out at a rate of 10.5 hitters per nine innings.
Despite the Rays’ bullpen having the seventh-best ERA, the relievers converted only 55.5% of their save opportunities.
Offensively, the Rays have been lackluster. Their 4.11 runs scored per game ranks bottom ten in MLB, they have a bottom-six SLG and OPS and the team is batting only .239, compared to the Guardians’ .254.
The Guardians currently own +1000 odds at SI Sportsbook to win the AL pennant, while the Rays have +1100 odds.
In this best-of-three series, I will give the nod to the home team. The Guardians are simply a more complete club and they should advance to the ALDS.
BET: Guardians in three (+275)
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