Evaluating running back average draft positions to assess value, upside and risk.
To stay in the same lane with the quarterback ADPs, I continue to use the ADPs from RTSports for the running back position. Again, each fantasy league has different draft flows based on scoring, league size, and participants. The goal of reviewing data from previous drafts is to understand how other people view the player pool within a real, paid draft environment. At the same time, ADPs help understand which players are rising and falling.
ADP Reports: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End
Pass-catching backs in PPR formats tend to have a higher floor and consistency rating than early-down rushers with scoring ability. When highlighting, I added a secondary color in the position column for players with a secondary data point. In the group of top 12 running backs, I used blue for those who had a chance to catch 60 passes or more.
No. 1
Heading into 2022, Jonathan Taylor has the safest feel of any skill player after a tremendous sophomore season (2,171 combined yards with 20 touchdowns and 40 catches on 372 touches). He’s big, fast, and explosive, giving him more value in all areas if the Colts can improve as a team offensively.
Fact or Fiction
The coin toss for a team looking for a running back after Taylor gets selected will be between Austin Ekeler (3.2) and Christian McCaffrey (3.4). Based on last year’s stats with Ekeler, many drafters will take the safe route over the once mighty McCaffrey. The most significant difference if both players stay healthy is that the Panthers will have their star running back on the field for many more plays. The Chargers have the pieces to be a top-scoring team in the league, but they will rotate in a second running back. I question whether Ekeler’s 20 touchdowns are repeatable.
Volume is my Friend
The Steelers have a long history of riding one running back, supported by Najee Harris receiving 381 touches in his rookie season. He gained plenty of yards (1,667) with 10 scores and 74 catches, but breaking free at the second level of the defense was an issue (3.9 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per catch). So will Pittsburgh throw the ball 100 fewer times this year with Mitchell Trubisky expected to start? Also, did Pittsburgh improve their offensive line? Either way, Harris is a lock to receiver well over 300 touches if he plays a minimum of 15 games. In addition, his college resume paints a higher ceiling in scoring and big plays.
Derrick Henry can’t match the top running back inventory in catches, but he’ll outwork them in the run game with a high value in scoring. Over his eight games in 2021, the Titans made an effort to get him the ball more in the passing game (18/154 – on pace for 38 catches for 327 yards). Their current running back structure doesn’t have a reliable pass-catching option, pointing to Henry being more active in this area in 2022. The trade-off between Harris and Henry is between big plays and scoring or catches for Harris. After finishing the first run of the projections at Sports Illustrated, Henry ranked third at running back.
Despite missing eight games over the past three seasons, Dalvin Cook averaged almost 23 touches over 41 games. His opportunity projected over 17 games would give the ball 391 times. He continues to make big plays (34 gains over 20 yards over the last three years). Cook brings scoring value, but buying his handcuff is almost a must due to him averaging 13 games from 2018 to 2021. This draft season, I’ll never take Cook over Derrick Henry.
Zone of his Own
Joe Mixon comes off his best season in the league while playing a developing offense. The Bengals gave him 20.9 touches per game, leading to impressive stats in scoring (16). On the downside, he gained only 4.1 yards per rush with many plays off on passing downs. Cincinnati will continue to give him plenty of work, but he needs their offensive line to create more significant holes to help his explosiveness. At the very least, Mixon is a major part of an offense with the talent to lead the league in scoring.
Breakout Options
Over his first two seasons, D’Andre Swift has done many things well except staying healthy for an entire season. He has 17 scores in his 26 games with a high floor in the passing game (108/809/4). The Lions gave Swift more than 15 carries only twice in his career. He looks the part of an impact back while adding more bulk in the offseason. In 2022, his ADP (10.3) puts him in the first round in many PPR drafts. To be a winning play, Swift must lengthen his season and see a bump in snaps on early downs.
The sexy 2021 RB2 expected to push to RB1 status this season is Javonte Williams. In a split role in his rookie season, he gained 1,219 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 43 catches on 246 touches. The Broncos had him on the field for 50.1% of their plays. Even with Melvin Gordon returning this season, Williams will gain a higher share of Denver’s offense. Russell Wilson helps the Broncos’ ability to move the ball and score.
Avoiding Fournette
The Bucs gave Leonard Fournette 249 touches over 14 games, leading to the sixth ranking in fantasy points (255.60) in PPR formats. Despite catching 181 passes for 1,209 yards and two touchdowns over the last three seasons, he gained only 6.7 yards per catch. I have him on my avoid list. He has a history of missing time while falling into the grinder category. His best asset for Tom Brady is doing his job in pass protection.
On the Way Back
I listed Saquon Barkley on my comeback player list earlier in the week. He makes sense and is tempting in the middle of the second round in 12-team leagues, but I would prefer to roster him at a discount if possible. I won't fight for any Giants players in 2022. Talent-wise, Barkley checks a lot of boxes. Unfortunately, injuries and his quarterback will keep many drafters away.
Proven Resumes
Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in the league. Unfortunately, his ceiling is limited, with Cleveland rotating in Kareem Hunt. When adding the question about Deshaun Watson playing in 2022, he falls into the steady category with seven missed games over the past two years.
The Packers have a fast-charging RB2 (AJ Dillon) behind Aaron Jones, inviting a step back in scoring. However, the change in receiving personnel for Green Bay does favor their running backs picking up more catches.
I have Alvin Kamara rated high based on him playing an entire season. It doesn’t seem fair to price in a six-game suspension until his suspension is announced. New Orleans should have a better structure in the passing offense this year, helping their backs. The Saints’ running back position lacks depth, pointing to Kamara possibly having the best opportunity of his career.
Despite being banged up last season with a lingering knee issue, The Cowboys still gave Ezekiel Elliott 284 touches and a top 10 running back season (253.10 fantasy points – 7th in PPR formats). He has a buying opportunity price point with a steamy report about his health in mid-June. His only strike is Tony Pollard is the more explosive back on the team.
Trick or Treat
Cam Akers flashed at the end of his rookie season, leading to him drawing plenty of attention in drafts in 2021. After missing most of last year with a dull showing in the postseason (54/151/0 – 2.8 yards per rush), fantasy drafters continue to believe in his upside. The Rams will rotate in a second back while Akers does project to be the better option in the passing game. I can’t invest a third-round pick in an unproven commodity, but I only control my destiny.
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Breakout Franchise Backs
I wrote about Travis Etienne and Antonio Gibson in my breakout team article. Both players will be targets for me this draft season. Of the two, Etienne will be challenging to roster as his ADP will rise quickly once he steps on the field in the preseason.
Breece Hall has all the tools needed to develop into a franchise running back for the Jets. He doesn’t have a clear path to full-time snaps with New York expected to rotate in Michael Carter. His three-down ability bodes well, especially if Zack Wilson develops into a viable starting quarterback in his second year in the NFL.
The cliff at running back looks to be AJ Dillon. The next back drafted comes 15 picks after he is selected. Dillon may look overpriced to some drafters based on his RB2 role behind Aaron Jones. He runs with power plus upside in scoring, and the Packers gave Dillon more chances in the passing game than expected in his rookie season. His best play should come late in the season when fantasy championships are on the line.
One Man’s Trash is Another’s Treasure
In the NFFC and RTSports, Miles Sanders is the 27th running back in late July, but his ADP (80 and 61) is in a broader range due to different scoring systems. He failed to score last year, and the Eagles haven’t given him the leading pass-catching role over the past two years after an excellent rookie season in this area (50/509/3). Sanders missed nine games over the previous two years, which is also a part of his favorable price point. His yards per rush (5.1) for his career show his explosiveness. As an RB3, I expect him to work well with a chance at more touchdowns and catches.
Tony Pollard falls into the sleeper category despite gaining over 1,000 combined yards in 2021 (130/719/2 with 39 catches for 337 yards). His ADP (64) works as a cheat RB2 in PPR formats for a team built on strong wide receivers. If Ezekiel Elliott has an injury, Pollard will outperform his draft value by a wide margin.
The most attractive running backs with RB4 ADPs are James Cook and Rhamondre Stevenson. Of the two, Stevenson offers playable value as he waits for an injury to gain more chances in the Patriots’ offense. Cook brings explosiveness to the Bills and pass-catching ability, but his role may be challenging to time early in the year unless Buffalo releases Zack Moss.
My top two deep sleepers at running back are Rachaad White (ADP – 125) and Isaiah Spiller (ADP – 128). White gains extra points in pass-catching, but he needs to prove his worth in picking up blitzing defenders. The Chargers should give Spiller a rotation role as their RB2 early in the year, and he may very well be a thorn in Austin Ekeler’s side in scoring at the goal line.
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