The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for Super Bowl 55, along with a favorite proposition bet.
Super Bowl LV Best Bets and Top Prop Bets
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
OFFICIAL VEGAS WHISPERS PICKS DOCUMENTED
OVERALL: 216-140-3 | MLB: 79-60 | NFL: 70-49-1 | CFB: 31-21 | January-March (2020): 38-12-2
Casey Olson's MMA PICKS: 210-87-6 (71% on all released betting plays)
If you are an SI PRO member and have yet to receive your invite to our Discord Community, please reach out to customer support, or send us a DM via Twitter.
ALL ODDS ARE COURTESY OF DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
DraftKings Sportsbook opened up the Super Bowl matchup at 57.5 and has since been bet down as low as 56. On this week’s Bull Market Fantasy Podcast, Bill Enright and I asked their sportsbook director Johnny Avello about the decision to continue to move the line down despite more than 75% of the money coming in on the over.
“Sharp bettors like the under in the game and they always bet the under in the Super Bowl because we normally jack this up maybe a point or so little higher than it should be...
The public is going to bet the over so the sharp money drives the line down and we’ll move on the public money when we get extremely heavy.”
Besides being on the opposite side of the public, the under has hit in the last two Super Bowls with either Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes playing in the game: Super Bowl LIII (Patriots 13, Rams 3) and Super Bowl LV (Chiefs 31, 49ers 20). Factor in potential rain, plus some storms in the forecast, and I’ll back the sharp money on the under.
BEST BET: UNDER 56.5
PROP BET: Gatorade color dumped on the winning coach
I believe the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl on the moneyline, which is why my main play is Orange at +125. Kansas City has built their entire season narrative on running it back from their Super Bowl victory a season ago. With essentially the same team intact, I’d be stunned if they went away from their winning Gatorade color from their Super Bowl win in Miami. It’s also a recent heavy favorite with “orange” being used in five of the last 11 Super Bowls.
However, if you believe the Bucs will win the Super Bowl, consider “blue” at higher odds over the more predictable “red.” In Tom Brady’s last three Super Bowls with New England, the color has been “blue” two of the past three times, with “none” being the third option. While Belichick typically frowns upon getting drenched following a victory, Bruce Arians will soak it up as Brady’s new coach. In Brady’s six Super Bowl victories, here’s how the Gatorade color stands out:
BLUE: 2 (SB 49 and 53)
NONE: 3 (SB 36, 38, 51)
CLEAR: 1 (SB 39)
TOP PROP: Orange +125 (if you think KC wins), Blue +700 (if you think TB wins)
Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
I already have Kansas City futures at odds of +475, +400 as well as +200 prior to the start of the playoffs which were shared throughout the year on the SI Gambling podcast. In addition, I shared on my colleague Michael Fabiano’s show “Fantasy Dirt” on SiriusXM radio a Vegas Whispers play of "AFC to win the Super Bowl” prior to the start of the postseason at odds of -143.
Therefore, since I am loaded up on the Chiefs already, it makes no fiscal sense to press at worse odds on the game line. The public loves to bet the over in Super Bowls, so I will wait until Sunday to make this play. I believe with rain in the forecast and possible lower scoring first half combined with solid defense, Super Bowl LV will go under the total.
BEST BET: UNDER 56.5
PROP BET: Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards: OVER/UNDER 92.5
Courtesy of the Vegas Whispers sharp information!
The total receiving yards for Tyreek Hill continues to rise as we get closer to Super Bowl LV with his number up to 92.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Hill was absolutely unstoppable in the first meeting in Week 12 of the regular season; hauling in 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns. In the playoffs, Hill has double digit receptions (10,11) leading to outputs of 110 and 172 receiving yards in wins over the Browns and Bills, respectively. Hill has surpassed this number of 92.5 in six of his last 10 games (60%).
In last year’s Super Bowl win over San Francisco, Hill caught nine of 16 targets for 105 yards. With previous experience on the NFL’s biggest stage, expect Andy Reid to find ways to move Hill around the formation and exploit the issues Tampa Bay could have in the secondary. Mahomes will be motivated to outplay Brady and his biggest targets will once again be his top weapons - Hill and Kelce. This number will only rise as we get closer to kickoff so get down on this number now.
TOP PROP: Hill Over 92.5 Total Receiving Yards (-115)
PROP BET: Super Bowl LV MVP
I have already shared respected money propositions bets as well as several Vegas Whispers official player prop wagers here at SI Gambling, but what's one more?
I personally love playing longshots in the Super Bowl. Back in Super Bowl LII the Vegas Whispers sharps played Julian Edelman to win the MVP at odds of 45/1 and to date that is still the biggest cash of my life on any Super Bowl wager. I am already holding tickets on the Kansas City big three: Patrick Mahomes at +120, Travis Kelce at 16/1 and Tyreek Hill at 20/1 here in Las Vegas. I cashed on Mahomes last year, but something tells me Hill could be a steal at double digit odds if he can come anywhere close to the unreal 13/269/3 stat line he posted back in Week 12 when the two teams met in Tampa Bay. You can still find Hill at odds of +1300 at DraftKings.
TOP LONGSHOT PROP: Tyreek Hill MVP +1300
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
BEST BET: UNDER 56.5
TOP PROP: Antonio Brown ANYTIME TD (+225)
Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
The last time these two teams met back in Week 12, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady both threw for three touchdowns and Tyreek Hill went for 13-269-3 in a 27-24 win. While the game was a high scorer, it didn’t go over the Super Bowl LV total of 56.5. That game was also played in good weather conditions. There’s a chance of thunderstorms on Super Bowl Sunday, though the forecast gets better as the day goes on (The Weather Channel projects a 40 percent chance of rain or thunderstorms Sunday evening). This bet goes out the window if the weather isn’t an issue, but for now I’m going under the total.
BEST BET: UNDER 56.5
PROP BET: First Scoring Play
Want a weird trend? Tom Brady has not led one touchdown drive in the opening quarter of all nine of his Super Bowls. What’s more, the last three Super Bowls, and four of the last five, have opened the scoring with a field goal. So if the Brady trend holds, the Bucs won’t score a touchdown in the first quarter and a field goal might be our best bet.
TOP PROP: First Scoring Play FG (+170)
Bill Enright (@BillEnright)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
BEST BET: Chiefs -3
TOP PROP: Tyreek Hill OVER 92.5 receiving yards (-125)
Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
One match for all the marbles! The Chiefs jumped out to a 20–7 lead at halftime and then hung on to post a 27–24 win in Tampa back in Week 12. Since then, the Buccaneers have won seven straight games. Apart from Week 17, when they sat their starters, the Chiefs have won six of seven contests. There isn’t much separating these teams, but I feel the Kansas City defense will be the difference in this contest.
BEST BET: Chiefs -3
PROP BET: Shortest Touchdown: OVER/UNDER 1.5 Yards
My favorite prop bet for Super Bowl LV is the total yards of the shortest touchdown. The total is set at 1.5 yards with UNDER (-177) as the favorite and OVER (+140) as the underdog. UNDER has been the winning side on this prop during four of the last five Super Bowl contests and there were three 1-yard scores last year. This prop is attractive since a pass interference penalty in the end zone places the ball at the 1-yard line. In what should be a pass heavy game, I expect that scenario will happen at least once.
TOP PROP: Shortest Touchdown UNDER 1.5 yards (-177)
Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
While each team has no shortage of Hall of Fame material on both sides of the football, there’s only one team you can describe with the following word: unstoppable.
In all my years of watching the NFL, I’ve never before seen a more talented duo than Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill paired with a big arm QB and a creative head coach like Andy Reid. Hill is not only the fastest player (4.29 speed) on the field (apologies to Scotty Miller), but he’s the best short, intermediate and deep ball route runner in the league too. Kelce has elite wide receiver skills at 6 foot 5, 260 pounds and just set the receiving yards record for a tight end (1,416 yards in just 15 games). The Chiefs have proven they can turn it on at will and I predict a second half nightmare for the Bucs defense.
BEST BET: Kansas City Chiefs -3
PROP BET: First Touchdown Scorer
The reports suggest Antonio Brown “looked good” so it appears he’ll play in the big game, but will he be 100%? Any swelling that occurs on Friday would be a setback and could cause him to play more of a decoy role, which would take pressure off of my favorite prop for first touchdown scorer, WR Chris Godwin at 12-1.
We will get an official injury report on Friday, but in the event news of Brown’s injury takes a downturn, the odds on Godwin to score might also take a hit.
Godwin has scored seven TDs this year, five of which have occurred since Week 15 so chances are good he’ll find the endzone at some point this Sunday. Add to that the fact that Godwin will likely test the waters of free agency this spring. Brady will likely want to give both he and the organization something to think about as the Bucs must decide whether or not to use their one-year franchise tag, which most assume will be used on star linebacker Shaq Barrett. This prop could be parlayed with the Bucs winning the coin toss, keeping the ball out of Mahomes hands and letting Brady waltz down with an opening score.
TOP LONG ODDS PROP: Chris Godwin First TD +1200
LOCK IT UP PROP: Brady over 1.5 TDs (-215) - This prop is 16-3 and 10-0 last 10.
Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
BEST BET: Buccaneers +3
TOP PROP: Leonard Fournette OVER 3.5 receptions
Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | TOTAL: 56.5
BEST BET: Chiefs -3
Everyone who knows me probably expects me to go with the octopus here, given that I invented it and DraftKings actually @’d me when they posted it.
Unfortunately, they only had it live for one day. So instead I’ll turn my attention elsewhere.
I’m betting that there won’t be a one-yard TD, and I’m happy to get a great line. Oftentimes the game props have lines set so both sides are around -110 (for example: total yards of longest touchdown O/U 45.5, both sides -114), or the specific outcome has the shorter odds. I think it’s unlikely we’ll see a one-yarder and I’m prepared to cash in on my intuition.
Is this a fun thing to bet on? I don’t know. I guess I’ll be rooting for everyone to get in the end zone on every play outside of on the goal line. I want to see big dudes pushing piles from at least 1.5 yards out and nobody chasing down fast wide receivers. And I definitely don’t want to see pass interference in the end zones. It’s a bit of an odd thing to root for, but I am drawn to it for reasons I cannot fully explain.
TOP PROP: Total yards of shortest touchdown OVER 1.5 yards (+140)
TOP LONGSHOT PROP: Tyrann Mathieu MVP (40/1)
The winning QB will probably be the MVP, but that’s not great value and certainly no fun. I like the Honey Badger as a long-shot. It just takes one or two big plays for a defensive player to win and he seems to always come through in big moments and big games.
And it’s 40/1. I just have to be right about a bet like this once every 40 years to break even. So I’ll keep trying.
Want even more plays on the Super Bowl? Check out the "Vegas Whispers" sharp plays and props for Sunday's game!
