TCU Might Be the Only Protection From a Power 2 Playoff Picture

Conference realignment means that the four CFP spots could wind up going to only Big Ten and SEC teams, present and future.

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First Quarter

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If you live in fear and loathing of a Power 2 planet, we have sobering news: it’s coming, and sooner than expected. We haven’t even reached the stage of actual Power 5 realignment and massive revenue escalation for the Big Ten and SEC, but those two titans of industry (and their network TV partners) are threatening to consume the 2022 College Football Playoff.

With Oregon (1) bowing out in a sudden-onset meltdown against Washington, the last viable firewall between a playoff consisting entirely of current or future members of the Big Ten and SEC is TCU (2). Maybe Clemson (3) sneaks back into the picture, but for now the Horned Frogs—who shoot blood from their eyes when threatened, according to an alert reader who sent The Dash “fun facts” about the animals—represent Everyone Else.

The four-team field seems certain to contain the following: 

• The SEC champion. If that isn’t Georgia (4), it would be a shock. But it also could be LSU (5) if the 8-2 Tigers win out.
• The Big Ten East winner. At 13-0, Ohio State (6) or Michigan (7) is an obvious lock. At 12-1 with what would be a stunning loss in the conference title game to an overmatched West winner, that still seems likely to be good enough to get in. The clash Nov. 26th in Columbus is a play-in game, in which the loser isn’t necessarily played out.

The other slots would go to two of the following:

• Georgia if the Bulldogs are beaten by LSU in the SEC title game and finish 12-1.
• TCU if it wins out. Perhaps even if it finishes 12-1, but not likely. (We’ll get to that.)
• Tennessee, provided the Volunteers finish 11-1 and get the gift of not having to play a 13th game against a quality opponent.
• Loser of Ohio State-Michigan, which would be 11-1 provided neither stumble this upcoming Saturday.
• Current Pac-12 front-runner and future Big Ten member USC (8), which is 9-1 and needs to beat UCLA, Notre Dame and an as-yet-undetermined opponent in the Pac-12 title game.
• Either Clemson or North Carolina (9), should one of them win the Atlantic Coast Conference at 12-1. But both were behind all the above teams in the CFP rankings last week — the Tigers at No. 10, the Tar Heels at No. 15 — and would seemingly need a few upsets to clear the way for an upward surge.

So, unless the ACC finds a path, the landscape looks like TCU vs. six current or future members of the Power 2 for one of four playoff spots. If the Horned Frogs don’t run the table, this could be an all-Big Ten and SEC affair—with or without future member USC.

Before getting to one-loss scenarios and creeping gigantism, let’s examine the likelihood of TCU getting to Selection Sunday 13-0. Let’s just say that the Frogs’ path would be unusual, and perhaps unprecedented.

Here’s a stat: seven of TCU’s 10 wins have been by 10 points or fewer, and six of those have come in a row. If the Frogs beat Baylor by that spread or less Saturday, they will be the first team since 1976 (Colgate) to win seven in a row by 10 or fewer.

But more to the point of whether this is sustainable until the playoff, here’s another stat: TCU is the first team to reach 10-0 with that many wins of 10 points or fewer in 28 years, and one of just three in the last 43 years. The others: Alabama 1994, Penn State 1985 and McNeese State 1979 (which was an FBS—or Division I-A—program at the time).

All three of those teams finished the regular season undefeated, but all three lost in the postseason. The Crimson Tide were 12-0 before being defeated by Florida in the SEC championship game; the Nittany Lions were 11-0 and lost a de facto national championship Orange Bowl to Oklahoma; and McNeese was 11-0 before it lost the Independence Bowl to Syracuse.

So historically speaking, a team that plays as many close games as TCU making it to 13-0 is still a steep climb. Which is where we get into the potential one-loss pileup.

Assuming Georgia is the No. 1 playoff seed at 13-0 and the winner of Ohio State-Michigan is No. 2 at 13-0, the one-loss brigade could include Tennessee at 11-1, the Ohio State-Michigan loser at 11-1, USC at 12-1, TCU at 12-1 and the ACC champion at 12-1.

In that case, here would be the resumes:

• Tennessee would have quality wins over LSU and Alabama (both 8-2) and a loss to No. 1 Georgia on the road. If they win out, the Volunteers also would have wins over four other Power 5 opponents that currently have winning records: Pittsburgh, Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina, all of which are 6-4.

• Michigan would have a quality win over Penn State (8-2) and a loss to Ohio State on the road. It also would have wins over Illinois (7-3), Maryland (6-4) and Iowa (6-4).

• Ohio State would have a quality win over Penn State and a loss to Michigan, plus wins over Notre Dame (7-3), Iowa and Maryland.

• USC would have 12 wins, including a Pac-12 championship win over someone, perhaps Oregon (8-2). It would have a one-point road loss to Utah (8-2). It also would have wins over UCLA (8-2), Oregon State (7-3), Notre Dame and Washington State (6-4).

• Clemson would have 12 wins, including an ACC championship over North Carolina (9-1). It would have a 21-point road loss to Note Dame. It also would have wins over five ACC teams bunched between 7-3 (Florida State, North Carolina State) and 6-4 (Syracuse, Louisville, Wake Forest).

• North Carolina would have 12 wins, including an ACC championship over Clemson (9-1). It would have a 13-point home loss to Notre Dame. It also would have wins over Duke (7-3), Pitt (6-4) and Wake (6-4).

• And TCU could have 12 wins with or without a Big 12 title against an as-yet-unknown opponent. It would have wins over Oklahoma State (7-3), Kansas State (7-3) and a trio of 6-4 teams (Texas, Baylor and Kansas).

The Dash’s guess as to how that would play out if the one-loss pileup occurs: 1. Georgia (13-0), 2. Ohio State (13-0), 3. Tennessee (11-1), 4. USC (12-1). With a lot of squawking from Michigan (11-1), TCU (12-1) and Clemson (12-1).

That’s a lot of Power 2 in the top four, current and future. And it doesn’t even include Alabama (10). But it might help hasten CFP expansion to 12 teams by 2024 or ’25.

Four for the Playoff 

Each week, The Dash hands down the way the bracket would look if today were Selection Sunday. This week:

Peach Bowl: top seed Georgia vs. fourth seed TCU.

The Bulldogs never trailed against Mississippi State, although there was some brief discomfort in Starkville before pulling away. The latest wrinkle to Todd Monken’s offense was a 70-yard reverse touchdown run by receiver Ladd McConkey. Next up for Georgia: at Kentucky Saturday.

The Horned Frogs demonstrated that concerns about their defense may be exaggerated after holding Texas to three offensive points (and one defensive score) on the road in Austin. Kendre Miller continues to be the most under appreciated running back in the country after producing his seventh 100-yard rushing game (and fifth straight) of the season. Next up for TCU: at Baylor Saturday.

Fiesta Bowl: second seed Ohio State vs. third seed Michigan.

The Buckeyes absorbed another running back injury without blinking in a rout of Indiana. Quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and a defense that produced 10 tackles for loss were plenty enough. Next up for Ohio State: at Maryland.

The Wolverines punched the clock again with a no-frills beating of Nebraska, limiting the Cornhuskers to a season-low 146 yards and three points. Michigan pounded the ball with Blake Corum and avoided mistakes to put the game away early and move on. Next up for Michigan: Illinois at home Saturday.