Tennessee Titans 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Derrick Henry Returns

May 31, 2022

Offensive production will depend on their workhorse back staying healthy.

The Tennessee Titans have limited bullets left in their gun after Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Over the past two seasons, they went 23-10 with no success in the postseason (0-2). Their receiving corps has a whole new look this season with two signings (WR Robert Woods and TE Austin Hooper) and the addition of WR Treylon Burke in this year’s draft. The loss of WR A.J. Brown removed star power, but the overall changes should be a win for the Titans’ passing attack. Tennessee will ride Henry early and often, and they hope to have found a future franchise quarterback in Malik Willis. The Titans remain a top contender in the AFC South.

Offense
Tennessee was one of two teams in the NFL to have more rushing attempts than passes. They averaged 32.4 runs per game, with most of the workload falling on Derrick Henry (219 carries) when on the field for eight games. Their game plan will be the same in 2022.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill – click here for fantasy projection

Malik Willis
In the new age of the NFL, more teams are looking for a mobile quarterback who offers a run/pass option to their game. Over the past two seasons in college, Willis rushed for 1,922 yards on 338 carries with 27 rushing touchdowns. However, his completion rate (62.4) needs work, and interceptions (12) were an issue last year. He gained 8.5 yards per pass attempt over the past two seasons, leading to 5,107 passing yards with 47 touchdowns. However, over his final three games in 2021, Willis completed only 49.0% of his 104 passes for 698 yards and six touchdowns and three interceptions while facing Louisiana, Army and Eastern Michigan. He also struggled to run the ball over his final six starts (72/223/4 – 3.1 yards per rush).

When given a clean pocket, Willis shows the ability to drive the ball, thanks to his plus arm strength. He also showed touch on deep passes. His challenge at the next level is reading defenses and making throws on time under duress. Willis needs plenty of work on his mechanics. NFL defenses will force him to beat them via the pocket where tips balls and his inaccuracy will become a problem early in his career. Willis will be dangerous in the open field when given a chance to run. I expect him to struggle with passing touchdowns in the red zone.

Fantasy outlook: Willis looks more like a project, with the keys to his development coming from improved footwork in his setup when passing the ball and learning to read defenses. I’m also concerned about his long-term durability due to his expected high number of runs. In his rookie season, Willis will learn from the sidelines.

Other Options: Logan Woodside

Running Backs
The loss of Derrick Henry for nine games led to the Titans having a sharp decline in yards per rush (4.36 – 5.05 in 2019 and 5.11 in 2020). They repeated their success in scoring rushing touchdowns (17). Last year, Tennessee figured out how to get their backs involved in the passing game (81/622/1 on 103 targets). In 2019 and ‘20, their running backs only had a combined 77 catches for 643 yards and five scores on 120 targets.

Derrick Henry – click here for fantasy projection

Hassan Haskins
Tennessee added Haskins in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. After a couple of quiet seasons at Michigan (182/997/10 with six catches for 40 yards over 18 games), he seized the Wolverines' starting job last season. Haskins finished with 1,458 combined yards with 20 touchdowns and 18 catches on 288 touches. Despite an excellent opportunity, he gained only 4.9 yards per rush and 7.3 yards per catch.

Haskins is another big back (6’2” and 230 pounds) who relies on his strength and power to make plays. His quickness and overall top-end speed don’t look impactful, putting him into the grinder category. Haskins has limited experience in pass protection, but he should improve in this area with more experience and coaching.

Fantasy outlook: Tennessee should use Haskins as almost a relief back for Henry if/when they play from a big lead. His role in the passing game will be short, and there is no guarantee the Titans will give him chances each week.

Dontrelle Hilliard
Over four seasons in the NFL, Hilliard doesn’t have much of a resume (78/447/4 with 41 catches for 286 yards). From Weeks 11-18 in 2021, Tennessee gave him double-digit touches in five games with Henry injured. He flashed in Week 12 (12/131/1) while offering playing value in two other matchups (82 combined yards with eight catches and 78 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches.

Fantasy outlook: Hilliard doesn’t have a high enough skill set in the passing game to steal many looks on passing downs for Tennessee. His change-of-pace style should lead to some chances in 2022, but he offers no fantasy value with a healthy Henry on the field.

Other Options: Jordan Wilkins, Trenton Cannon, Julius Chestnut

Wide Receivers
Over the past three seasons, the Titans’ wideouts gained over 65% of their receiving yards. They set a three-year high in catches (195) and targets (311) in 2021, but their wide receivers had a regression in catch opportunity (54.3%) and yards per catch (12.5).

Treylon Burks – click here for fantasy projection

Robert Woods
Woods blossomed over the past four seasons with the Rams, leading to 311 catches for 4,318 yards and 23 touchdowns over 56 games (15.73 FPPG in PPR leagues). Last year, he had four dull games (3/34/1, 5/70, 3/38, 4/48/1) over the first four weeks while Los Angeles featured Cooper Kupp in the passing game. Woods broke loose in Week 5 (12/150), followed by four steady showings (2/31/1, 6/70, 3/57/2, 7/98). His season ended in Week 10 with a torn ACL in his left knee. He’ll have about nine-and-a-half months to rehab, giving Woods a chance to be ready for Week 1.

Fantasy outlook: The move to Tennessee pushes Woods to WR1 status and potentially increases his attention by coverage. The Rams gave him 68 rushes for 473 yards and five touchdowns over the last four seasons, increasing his fantasy value. The Titans should also give him some chances in the run game to keep defenses honest when trying to defend Henry. I expect a slow start in September, so I’ll set his bar at 75 catches for 900 yards with about five scores and some added value running the ball. In late May, Woods ranked 41st at wide receiver in the NFFC with an ADP of 105. His stock will rise when he is given the full go for opening day.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Surprisingly, Westbrook-Ikhine led Tennessee in wide receiver snaps (680) in 2021 despite making seven starts. He finished with 38 catches for 476 yards and four touchdowns on 57 targets. His best two games came in Week 11 (7/107) and Week 18 (4/78/1) while having three targets or fewer in 10 contests.

His best play came over three seasons at Indiana in college when Westbrook-Ikhine caught 138 of his 226 targets for 2,157 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Fantasy outlook: Tennessee expects Westbrook-Ikhine to open as its WR3. His size (6’2” and 210 pounds) creates potential scoring upside in the red zone, but the Titans will give him targets with a healthy Robert Woods and Treylon Burks on the field.

View the original article to see embedded media.

Dez Fitzpatrick
Over four seasons at Louisville, Fitzpatrick caught 154 passes for 2,589 yards and 21 touchdowns. He gained 16.8 yards per catch while posting weakness in his catch rate (57.2). His best year came in his freshman season (45/699/9), pointing to regression in his growth.

Fitzpatrick gives Tennessee a wideout to test a defense deep with jump ball ability in the end zone, but his release and hands limit his explosiveness. His lack of quickness and route-running point to minimal value over the short areas of the field. Fitzpatrick won’t create in the open field and make good reads on option routes.

Fitzpatrick caught five of his eight targets for 49 yards and one touchdown in his rookie season.

Fantasy outlook: Fitzpatrick may offer flash value in some games if/when he hits on a long score. His play will be up and down with minimal chances each week.

Other Options: Racey McMath, Kyle Philips, Cody Hollister, Mason Kinsey

Tight End
Over the past three seasons, the Titans' tight ends have scored 26 touchdowns. They finished with regression in catches (82), receiving yards (685), yards per catch (8.4) and targets (107) last year while lacking a top talent at tight end.

Austin Hooper
After two productive seasons (71/600/4 and 75/787/6) in Atlanta, Hooper failed to live up to expectations in his two years with the Browns (46/435/4 and 38/345/3). Last year, he gained over 50 yards in only one game (4/53) while averaging only 3.8 targets. In addition, Hooper only had one contest with over six chances.

Fantasy outlook: Hooper should be a clear upgrade at tight end for the Titans, but they still like to rotate and play multiple tight ends. A successful year would be over 50 catches for 450 yards and five scores. His ADP (230) puts him in the free-agent pool in most redraft leagues in the NFFC.

Other Options: Geoff Swain, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tommy Hudson

Coaching
After going 9-7 each season from 2016-19, the Titans pushed their record to 11-5 and 12-5 with two AFC South titles. Mike Vrabel went 41-24 in his four years as head coach while reaching the postseason from 2019-21. All eight years of his coaching experience in the NFL came on the defensive side of the ball. Vrabel played in the league for 14 seasons at linebacker. His ties to New England and three Super Bowl titles were a big part of his path to a head coaching job.

Tennessee fell to 15th in points scored (419) and 17th in yards gained. They scored 72 fewer points than in 2020.

Todd Downing returns as the offensive coordinator after working as Tennessee’s tight ends coach in 2019-20. He’s been a coach in the NFL since 2005. He led the Raiders’ offense for one season in 2017.

The Titans gave Shane Bowen a second chance to run their defense. Over his previous three seasons, he worked as a linebackers coach for Tennessee. Bowen has six seasons of coaching experience in the pros at the age of 35.

Tennessee’s defense had a rebound in play last season. They moved to sixth in points allowed (354 – 85 fewer than 2020) and 12th in yards allowed.

View the original article to see embedded media.

Free Agency
In the offseason, the Titans only added TE Austin Hooper via free agency. T David Quessenberry (BUF) and LB Jayon Brown (LV) found new homes over the winter while signing minimal contracts.

Their top moves came in the trade market. Tennessee took a flier on WR Robert Woods for a 2023 sixth-round draft selection. In this year's draft, they also sent WR A.J. Brown to the Eagles for first- and third-round picks.

Draft
This season, Tennessee focused on upgrading the offense with six of their nine draft choices – WR Treylon Burks (1.18), T Nicholas McCready (3.5), QB Malik Willis (3,22), TE Chigoziem Okonkwo (4.38), and WR Kyle Philips (5.20). In addition, the Titans invested in a pair of cornerbacks (Roger McCreary – 2.3 and Theo Jackson – 6.26) plus LB Chance Campbell (6.41).

Offensive Line
The Titans slipped to fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (2,404) with 23 touchdowns and a step back to 11 runs over 20 yards. Their ball carriers gained 4.3 yards per rush.

Tennessee repeated its ranking in passing yards (23^rd, 3,745) with 22 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Their quarterbacks gained only 7.0 yards per pass attempt with only 35 completions over 20 yards. The Titans’ offensive line allowed 22 more sacks (47) than in 2020 (25).

Their offensive line has two areas of strength (LT Taylor Lewan and C Ben Jones), with their future lying on the development of G Dillon Radunz and T Nicholas Petit-Frere. The Titans regressed in both run and pass blocking last year. I view their line closer to the league average than a top offensive line.

Defense
The Titans jumped to second in rushing yards allowed (1,438), with 14 touchdowns and only three runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 3.9 yards per rush while averaging 21.6 rushing attempts per game.

Tennessee bumped to 25th in passing yards allowed (4,169), with quarterbacks tossing 24 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Their defense delivered 32 sacks.

DEs Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry combined for 17.5 sacks, but neither player provided an edge defending the run. The Titans finished last with two of the better safeties in the league (Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker) while investing in two top talented cornerbacks (Caleb Farley and Kristian Fulton) in the 2020 and ‘21 drafts. Last season, LB Harold Landry turned into a beast (75 tackles and 12 sacks), leading to a five-year, $87.5 million deal. This defense needs to improve rushing the quarterback to help their secondary in coverage. I don’t see enough help added this year in free agency or the draft to expect a top 12 fantasy defense.

Tags: Fantasy Fantasy/Betting NFL