The Dolphins are massive home favorites coming out of their bye in Week 12 against the Texans.
Davis Mills and the Texans head to Miami in Week 12 looking to snap a five-game losing streak when they face Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.
Miami has won four consecutive games but has burned bettors recently by posting a dismal 2-5 (28.6%) against the spread (ATS) mark over its last seven games. Coming off the bye, Tagovailoa will face a Texans’ defense that is ranked 14th in the NFL and is allowing 210.7 passing yards per game to quarterbacks.
Houston has lost eight of its last nine games with a disappointing 3-5-1 ATS mark over that span. The Texans are 1-4 straight-up (SU) and 2-2-1 ATS on the road this season, while having been outscored, 107-78.
Since the Texans joined the NFL in 2002, they have battled Miami ten times. Despite losing, 17-9, as four-point road underdogs last season, Houston has won eight of the 10 meetings with a corresponding 6-4 ATS record.
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
Moneyline: Texans (+450) | Dolphins (-599)
Spread: HOU +12.5 (-110) | MIA -12.5 (-110)
Total: 46 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Nov. 27, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Texans Straight-Up Record: 1-8-1
Texans Against The Spread Record: 4-5-1
Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 7-3
Dolphins Against The Spread Record: 5-5
Bet on Texans-Dolphins at SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
This game opened with Miami as only a 9.5-point home favorite but steamed to a 12.5-point after Houston’s disappointing effort last week in its loss to the Commanders. The Dolphins have been installed as favorites in six games this season but only covered the spread in half of those games (3-3 ATS).
Houston owns the league’s third-worst scoring offense (15.9 points per game) and only gained 148 total yards of offense in the Week 11 loss to Washington. Rookie Dameon Pierce ranks fourth in rushing attempts (175), which has resulted in the seventh-most rushing yards (780) among all running backs. Pierce was held to a career-worst eight rushing yards last Sunday but finds a favorable matchup against a Dolphins’ defense that has allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs.
Miami’s aerial attack, led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, ranks second in passing yards per game (293.8). The arrival of Jeff Wilson Jr. has paid major dividends as the slashing back has posted 215 total yards and two touchdowns in his first two games with the club. If Wilson can continue to give Tagovailoa a reliable ground game, the Dolphins could be looking at a deep run in January.
Bettors can take part in SI Sportsbook’s free Perfect 10 contest each week during the NFL season. The weekly game requires bettors to make 10 selections against the spread for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who picks at least six games correctly will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.