The Texans have a new coach and bolstered the roster with two first-round picks. Their wins total projection at SI Sportsbook is just 4.5 wins.
The Texans are a better football team today than they were a year ago.
That’s not saying a lot for a franchise that has eight wins to its name over the last two seasons, but it’s something.
Houston heads into 2022 with Lovie Smith promoted to head coach, added two players in the first round at high-value positions and moved on from Deshaun Watson after trading him to the Browns in exchange for a massive haul.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND
This rebuild is still very much a work in progress and competing is in the distant future. At least there’s now young pieces on either side of the ball to build a foundation around, like No. 4 pick Derek Stingley and No. 15 pick Kenyon Green, plus there’s buy-in from veterans like Brandin Cooks, who re-signed in the offseason.
Expectations for this team have not changed. The Texans’ win total sits at 4.5 again after they failed to hit that mark in consecutive seasons. They’re tied for the lowest over/under in the NFL with the Falcons despite playing in one of the weakest divisions.
Can a Year 2 leap from quarterback Davis Mills and a defense that has nowhere to go but up propel the Texans to five wins? Or will they fall short of that mark yet again and find themselves with another pick near the top of the draft?
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Houston Texans Over/Under: 4.5 - O (-111) | U (-120)
2021-22 record: 4-13; Third AFC South; Missed playoffs
AFC South future odds: +2500 (Fourth)
AFC future odds: +8000 (16th)
Super Bowl future Odds: +20000 (Tied-31st)
Key additions: CB Derek Stingley Jr., OL Kenyon Green, CB Steven Nelson
Key losses: S Justin Reid, QB Tyrod Taylor, LB Jake Martin
Texans Daily offseason grade: A
The Texans had a fantastic offseason on all fronts, most notably through the draft, where they landed potentially four immediate starters in Stingley, Pitre, Green and Metchie III. But they also did an excellent job making financially smart free-agent signings at priority positions as well, including backup quarterback, defensive end and along the offensive line. But their biggest and best move of the offseason was trading Deshaun Watson to Cleveland, and clearing out the cloud that hung over the franchise. — Matt Galatzan
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SCHEDULE
Week 1: Colts
Week 2: At Broncos
Week 3: At Bears
Week 4: Chargers
Week 5: At Jaguars
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: At Raiders
Week 8: Titans
Week 9: Eagles
Week 10: At Giants
Week 11: Commanders
Week 12: At Dolphins
Week 13: Browns
Week 14: At Cowboys
Week 15: Chiefs
Week 16: At Titans
Week 17: Jaguars
Week 18: At Colts
Houston ranked 30th in points scored, 32nd in yards gained, 27th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed in 2021.
The Texans suffered a pair of embarrassing shutouts (40-0 against the Bills, 31-0 at home to the Colts) and failed to score even 10 points five other times. The front office brought in a slew of players to address the many needs across the roster.
Drafting Stingley, a lockdown corner out of LSU, and safety Jalen Pitre out of Baylor is a jolt to the secondary, as is the free-agency signing of veteran cornerback Steven Nelson. And to protect Mills, who might not be the team’s long-term answer at quarterback but had an impressive rookie season given the circumstances, the Texans drafted Green out of Texas A&M and signed A.J. Cann away from the Jaguars.
Is a pair of first-rounders and some solid but not game-changing free-agent additions enough to put this team over its expected win total? Let’s see.
For how bad Houston was last season, it held up against division foes with a 3-3 record. That included a shocking win against the AFC No. 1 Seed Titans and a sweep of the Jaguars. The Colts outscored the Texans 62-3 across two games.
Indianapolis only got better and should again blow out Houston in both meetings, Jacksonville also made roster improvements so let’s call that a split and Tennessee took a step back but is still clearly the better team despite last season’s slip up.
So that’s a 1-5, maybe a 2-4 start in division play for the Texans if they can steal another game against the Titans.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The rest of the AFC slate is brutal: Broncos on the road, Chargers at home, Raiders on the road, Dolphins on the road, Browns at home in Week 13 in what could potentially be Watson’s return to Houston and then Chiefs at home.
Drawing the best division in football, the AFC West, and two more playoff contenders in Cleveland and Miami makes wins against the rest of the conference difficult to come by. I see the Texans going 0-6 against a brutal slate of non-division AFC teams.
That brings them to one, maybe two wins with double-digit losses already.
The draw against the NFC East sounds favorable at first, but it’s difficult to see Houston upsetting the Eagles or Cowboys. That leaves an improved Giants team on the road and a visit from the Commanders. I called the game against Washington a loss for the Texans in my Commanders over/under betting preview, but let’s just say they can win that game to finish with a 1-3 record versus the division.
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Now, we’re at two/three wins with one game remaining: a Week 3 road date with the Bears. That’s a winnable game against another one of the NFL’s bottom feeders to put Houston in the range of three/four wins and that’s being generous.
The most winnable games on the schedule come against the Bears on the road and the Jaguars at home. Every other game could realistically be a loss.
Sure, flukes happen—the Texans beat the Chargers and the Titans last season—but there’s enough room between my expectation for this team’s performance and the line of 4.5 wins to give me confidence in betting on the under.
Houston is building something but it’s still very much a work in progress. This team isn’t getting to five wins.
BET: Under 4.5 Wins (-120)
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