Only a handful of teams each year enter the Big Dance with a realistic shot at cutting down the nets.
By late Wednesday, 64 teams will still be in contention for the men’s national championship. The number of real contenders is a fraction of that—though, it must be said, more than last year, when Baylor and Gonzaga loomed over the field.
In this more wide-open year, we could probably make a case for a dozen teams. But 10 is a rounder number, so let’s go with that. One of the following teams will cut down the nets in NOLA on April 4:
Gonzaga
Seed: No. 1 in the West. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Georgia State, Boise State, Arkansas, Duke. Predicted path: Georgia State, Boise State, Arkansas, Texas Tech. The selection committee gave the overall No. 1 seed the toughest region, with stiff tests in the second, third and fourth rounds.
The Zags have been No. 1 almost every week of the season in the Ken Pomeroy Ratings and never lower than No. 2. They are the best offensive team in the nation per KenPom and in the top 10 defensively. They arguably have the best trio of players in the tournament in big men Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme and point guard Andrew Nembhard—and the supporting cast is plenty capable as well. Add the elite coaching of Mark Few and both the experience and hunger of last year’s run to the national title game, and this is the team to beat. The question Gonzaga must answer: Does it have the necessary physical toughness and the every-play intensity? After playing a lot of overmatched competition in the last two months, there is no coasting now.
Arizona
Seed: No. 1 in the South. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Wright State–Bryant winner, Seton Hall, Illinois, Villanova. Predicted path: Wright State, TCU, Houston, Tennessee. The Wildcats will be challenged in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Arizona is the complete package: big, athletic, capable shooters, willing passers, enthusiastic defenders. Bennedict Mathurin is an NBA-level talent, and Tommy Lloyd has three guys 6’11” and up who can all play at a high level. Kerr Kriisa dictates a fast tempo and is a threat outside the arc but rarely shoots inside it. We’ll see how Kriisa’s ankle is after missing two games in the Pac-12 tournament with a sprain—he’s expected to be O.K. The one thing Arizona lacks is NCAA tournament experience—the players haven’t been there, and certainly have never worn a bull’s-eye like this team will. Lloyd has abundant tourney experience as an assistant at Gonzaga for two decades, but it will be different as the man in charge.
Charlie Riedel/AP
Kansas
Seed: No. 1 in the Midwest. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Texas Southern, San Diego State, Providence, Auburn. Predicted path: Texas Southern, Creighton, Iowa, USC. The Jayhawks got a gift, drawing the easiest road to New Orleans. The high seeds in the bottom half of the Midwest Region all have significant question marks.
Kansas added a weapon during the Big 12 tournament in Remy Martin—he’s been around all season, but finally started to play like the difference-making guard he is last week. Combine his emergence with the interior production from the tandem of David McCormack and Mitch Lightfoot, and the pieces are coming together at the right time. Ochai Agbajj is a star capable of carrying the Jayhawks, and Bill Self has three Final Four appearances on his NCAA résumé (also some major disappointments). The vulnerability: Kansas is good defensively but not great, particularly inside. Point guard Dejuan Harris is crafty but not a shooter, which cuts down on the team’s offensive versatility.
Purdue
Seed: No. 3 in the East. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Yale, Texas, Kentucky, Baylor. Predicted path: Yale, Texas, Kentucky, UCLA. By no means an easy region, but Baylor could be considered a vulnerable No. 1 seed. Since the NCAA tournament expanded the bracket to 64 teams in 1985, no national champion has ever lost before the semifinals of its conference tournament; the Bears went out in the Big 12 quarters last week.
The Boilermakers are trying to defeat some history of their own, with a KenPom defensive efficiency rating of 100—that’s prohibitive for winning a national championship in the last two decades. The good news is that Purdue is No. 3 offensively, a symphony of inside-out execution that has rotating powers in the post and a superstar guard in Jaden Ivey. Coach Matt Painter will need his role players to come through, most notably shooting guard Sasha Stefanovic, who has made only three of his last 14 three-point shots. And of course, Purdue must defeat its own star-crossed history in the tournament, having failed to reach a Final Four since 1980.
UCLA
Seed: No. 4 in the East. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Akron, Saint Mary’s, Baylor, Kentucky. Predicted path: Akron, Saint Mary’s, Baylor, Purdue. The Bruins could be headed for a rugged second-round showdown with Saint Mary’s, then follow that by playing the defending national champions in the Sweet 16. Nothing will come easy.
Everyone who scored a point in the Bruins’ epic Final Four loss to Gonzaga is still around, and there is a sense that they’ve been waiting for March to ratchet their play up again to the level it was in the 2021 tournament. Only one UCLA starter and two of its top nine players have appeared in every game this season, as Mick Cronin has juggled lineups through a series of nagging injuries. But Jaime Jaquez and Jules Bernard stepped up big in the Pac-12 tournament, point guard Tiger Campbell is a constant and Johnny Juzang showed flashes of a return to star power. The Bruins miss enough shots to keep opponents in the game, but this much is certain: They will be a tough out. No surrender in this group.
Tennessee
Seed: No. 3 in the South. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Longwood, Colorado State, Villanova, Arizona. Predicted path: Longwood, Colorado State, Villanova, Arizona. The No. 1 Wildcats loom as an imposing impediment to New Orleans, and eliminating Villanova certainly wouldn’t be easy. But the Volunteers have a pretty smooth path to the Sweet 16.
Tennessee has never been to the Final Four and rarely been close. But if ever there were a time and a team to do it, this might be the one. The Vols already won the school’s first Southeastern Conference tournament title since 1979, so why stop there? They have an athletic and fearless freshman-guard tandem in Kennedy Chandler and Zakai Zeigler, plus a heady third guard in Santiago Vescovi. They are an excellent defensive team, capable of putting pressure on ballhandlers and jumping passing lanes to disrupt an offense. They were hardened by the battles in a fierce SEC. The biggest issue is interior scoring, with Tennessee ranking among the worst teams in the tournament in two-point accuracy. And there is Rick Barnes’s tourney history—other than a 2003 Final Four at Texas, he’s had a lot of early flameouts.
Kentucky
Seed: No. 2 in the East. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Saint Peter’s, Murray State, Purdue, Baylor. Predicted path: Saint Peter’s, Murray State, Purdue, UCLA. The Wildcats can get there, but the interior power of Purdue and guard play of Baylor could pose problems.
Last time the Final Four was in New Orleans, Kentucky won its last title behind Anthony Davis in 2012. This team also has a singular center talent in Oscar Tshiebwe, though he is a different sort of player. When Kentucky’s guards are hitting shots and distributing around Tshiebwe, the Wildcats can be dominant—ask Kansas, which lost at home to Kentucky by 18 in late January. But the perimeter performers all have been fickle in recent weeks, coming and going. Kentucky really could use Kellan Grady returning to sharpshooting form: He’s hitting 42.6% of his three-pointers on the season but has made just five of his last 22 over six games.
Iowa
Seed: No. 5 in the Midwest. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Richmond, Providence, Kansas, Auburn. Predicted path: Richmond, South Dakota State, Kansas, USC. Blessed with a winnable region, it may all come down to a Sweet 16 game against Kansas.
Behold the Hawkeyes, longtime March lightweights, now suddenly knocking people around. Iowa hasn’t advanced beyond the second round of the NCAA tournament since the 1990s, and last year’s rout at the hands of Oregon as No. 2 still resonates. But these Hawkeyes have shown something different—they won their first Big Ten tournament title since 2006, they were surging instead of staggering in February, and when they are hot they can bury anyone. Fran McCaffery has to prove he can be a calm commander in the cauldron of the tourney, and Iowa has to prove it can guard at a high enough level, but there is a lot to like about this team.
Texas Tech
Seed: No. 3 in the West. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Montana State, Alabama, Duke, Gonzaga. Predicted path: Montana State, Rutgers, Duke, Gonzaga. Very tough region, but this is a very tough team. Duke will have to up its intensity if the two teams meet in the Sweet 16.
The top six offensive teams in the KenPom rankings are among the 10 title contenders listed here, which tells you the way the sport is trending. But don’t completely disregard the importance of defense—and if stops still matter, then the Red Raiders are definite contenders. They are the best defensive team in the country, physical and relentless at that end under first-year coach Mark Adams. Eventually they’ll have to hit shots, especially if they make it to a regional final against Gonzaga, and they could also fall victim to a tightly called game. The Red Raiders are most comfortable bumping and grinding.
Arkansas
Seed: No. 4 in the West. Path to the Final Four, if seeding holds: Vermont, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Duke. Predicted path: Vermont, UConn, Gonzaga, Texas Tech. Another title contender from the West, where there basically are no free passes forward. If the Razorbacks were in the Midwest they’d be the Final Four pick.
The Hogs were a tough out last year, advancing through a succession of cliff-hangers to the regional final before falling to eventual champion Baylor. This year’s team bears many similarities, starting with deluxe athleticism, great confidence and fierce competitiveness. They don’t shoot it well—especially from deep—but they get to the foul line and can be spectacular in transition. They defend vigorously. J.D. Notae doesn’t have great shooting percentages, but tends to make big ones. Stanley Umude is a fantastic athlete. Jaylin Williams is a Whatever It Takes guy. They have enough pieces, if they can make enough shots.
More March Madness Coverage:
• Men’s Top Seeds at Risk of an Early Exit
• 1–68: Ranking the Men’s Tourney Field
• Five Teams That Could Crash Men’s Final Four