SI Gambling’s Corey Parson breaks down his Friday NBA wagers and shares his best bets, target lines, props and more.
The biggest sports betting day of the year takes place on Sunday. The goal for NBA bettors is to build up your bankroll over the next two days, so you have extra money to lay on the Super Bowl. Tonight we have another tough nine-game slate. I have two games that I really like that I will share below.
I'm not a big parlay bettor, but I will be adding the Kansas City Chiefs moneyline to my NBA parlays this weekend.
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NBA Betting Plays - Friday, February 5th
ODDS AVAILABLE AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Indiana Pacers (-1.5) Total: 228.5
I am surprised and pleased that this is not a nationally televised game. The NBA's television partners love to shove Zion Williamson and the Pelicans down our throats in nationally televised games. The Pelicans have played better as of late — that's why this spread has dropped from -4 to -1.5. Sharp bettors like New Orleans to get the win, but there is no chance that I back New Orleans ATS on the road. The Pelicans are 3-7 on the road this year, while the Pacers are 8-5 straight up at home.
What has caught my eye in this game is the total: 228.5. That is a high number, but I feel good that it will go over. The Pacers score an average of 115 points per game when they are on their home court. The Pelicans are also an over team. They have gone over the number in 13 of 20 games this season. Additionally, New Orleans gives up an average of 112 points per game when they are on the road. Through research, I discovered that when the Indiana Pacers are the home team, the over hits 61% of the time. When you add the Pelicans to the mix, I feel even better about the over.
New Orleans has gone over the number in each of their last four road games. They are also 1-3 ATS in those games, so it may also be a good idea to fade the sharp money. Full disclosure: The sharps get very offended when you fade them.
The Pick: Over 228.5
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Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat (-6.5) Total: 229
If there were an 11th Commandment, it would be to ignore line movement in the NBA, but that sounds too absolute, and very few things in sports betting are absolute.
The Wizards are in Miami tonight for the second game of a two-game set. Washington scored an impressive seven-point victory in the first game, upsetting Miami as a 9.5-point road underdog. Tonight, the Wizards are 6.5-point underdogs, and the public can't believe it. They're backing Washington with 54% of the bets.
But the line has not moved, and whenever something in sports betting looks too good to be true, it's because it is.
Miami has been a mess this season. They are 7-14 straight up and 6-14-1 ATS. The Heat have three straight up wins, and two ATS wins in their last 10 games. Injuries have been a major issue for the Heat. Jimmy Butler has played in just 9-of-21 games this season, and Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic have both missed time. The good news for Miami is that all of them are scheduled to play, and I see this being a revenge spot for the Heat.
Miami has lost six straight games ATS. When I saw that, my chin hit the floor, so I had to run those numbers. Check this out: In the last three seasons, there have been 40 occasions where a team has come into a game losing six straight ATS. In the seventh game, that team has covered the number 57% of the time.
The Pick: Heat -6.5
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Overall Record: 24-28 ATS