SI Gambling's Corey Parson breaks down his NBA wagers and shares his best bets, target lines, props, and more.
Last night was a good night for me, the things I thought would happen finally did happen, and I was able to go undefeated on the night. Remember yesterday I wrote about not feeling confident fading the trendy underdogs as I normally do? It turns out it was the right way to go.
The Timberwolves and Thunder both covered as trendy dogs. The Warriors were one possession away from a cover. We can use last night to remind ourselves that nothing in sports betting is absolute, we all have trends that we like, but we can not bet them blindly.
We have a seven-game slate tonight with nothing too major to keep an eye on. Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics, and Mike Conley is out for Utah.
The Sacramento Kings are playing very well. They have won 7 out of their last 10 games. They have also won an insane eight straight games ATS. Tonight they are home vs. the Philadelphia 76ers.
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NBA Betting Plays - Tuesday, February 9th
ODDS AVAILABLE AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-6) Total: 226.5
The Rockets and the Pelicans play tonight in what feels like their fifth matchup this season. They only played once, but I'm just telling you what it feels like. The Pelicans are playing in a nationally televised game yet again; that part is a fact. These teams are evenly matched. Houston is 11-12 straight up. New Orleans is 10-12 on the season, although they are currently on a three-game winning streak while the Rockets have lost two out of their last three. So, where does the edge lie? This game opened up with the Pelicans as a 4.5-point favorite, then the number went up to Pelicans -6. But as I'm writing this, the number is starting to creep towards -6.5. I just wrote last week that NBA line movement can be tricky, so it will not deter me. This season, the Rockets have covered the spread as a road dog 63% of the time. In Houston's last four games as a road dog, not only have they covered the spread, they have also won the game on the moneyline. This number is shaded because the Rockets got destroyed by the Hornets last night.
The Pick: Rockets +6
Boston Celtics vs. Utah Jazz (-6) Total:220
This game opened up with the Utah Jazz as a 4-5 point favorite. The number has been bet up to -6 and has held steady. The Celtics may get Jaylen Brown back this evening. We already know that Mike Conley will be out for Utah. The Jazz are playing very good basketball. They are 19-5 on the season. They are also 9-2 straight up on their home court. Utah currently has the best record in the NBA. The Celtics are no slouches themselves, and they could be at full strength if Brown suits up. Boston's problem is they are playing their fifth straight road game tonight, and that's a fade for me.
The Pick: Jazz -6
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Sacramento Kings (+4.5) Total: 230.5
Shoutout to the Kings because they are ballin right now. Sacramento won seven of their last eight and have won eight straight ATS. Good teams win, great teams cover. Things will get real for Sacramento as they welcome the Eastern Conference-leading Philadelphia 76ers to town. Philadelphia opened up as a -4.5 point favorite. Now we see -5 across the board. I think Philly gets the win, but Sacramento will fight to the end. The total is this game is sitting at 230.5. As you can imagine, the over is being bet heavy, but the line has not moved. Philadelphia and Sacramento both play to the over, so this number looks low to me. Remember, if it's too good to be true, you know what they say! Like when the hot girl on Instagram DMs you and not the other way around, it's probably a scam. These two teams combined have played in four games, which closed between 230 and 234. The under has cashed in three of those games. Philadelphia is also 6-5 to the under this season on the road. Don't be a simp, bet the under.
The Pick: Under 230.5
Overall Record: 27-29 ATS
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