SI Gambling’s Corey Parson breaks down his NBA wagers and shares his best bets, target lines, props and more.
There are 10 NBA games on the slate for us to make money on tonight. Last night was a good night for favorites as they went 4-2, with totals going 3-3. The biggest money line winners were the Nets at +250 and the Toronto Raptors at +194.
Tonight's NBA card doesn't have many must-watch games, but the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers meet tonight at the Staples Center. The Jazz have won eight games in a row may be without Mike Conley. The Clippers have won four straight but they are without Paul George tonight along with Kawhi Leonard is questionable. Keep an eye on this line throughout the day. If Leonard plays, I like the Clippers on their home court. When these two teams met earlier this year the Jazz won the game straight up as a 3.5 home underdog.
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NBA Betting Plays - Wednesday, February 17th
ODDS AVAILABLE AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic (+4.5) Total: 209.5
What a time to be alive as the New York Knicks are laying points on the road. Granted, the team that they are facing has been terrible this season but the Knicks can improve their record to 15-15 tonight in Orlando. The Magic may be the most injury-riddled team in the league, Evan Fournier is questionable for tonight and Aaron Gordon and Cole Anthony are both out.
The total on this game opened up at 209.5, and to my surprise the total has climbed to 210 and even 210.5 at some shops. The Knicks have played better on offense as of late, and over the course of their last three games they have averaged 117 points per contest. That's likely why this line is creeping up, but I wouldn't trust it. The Knicks have played 15 road games this season with the under cashing 73% of the time.
The Pick: Under 209.5
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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors (-1.5) Total: 225.5
This game has a very tricky line and I smell a rat. The game opened up with the Miami Heat as a 1-point road favorite. There is really no reason for Miami to have opened up as a favorite, so you know what that means. The betting market has reacted and the line has moved the Warriors as a 1.5-point favorite. This is worthy of a deeper dive because I now have to find a reason to bet the Heat.
Miami is playing their fourth straight road game tonight, which is not that big of a deal since we don't fade road trips until Game 5. The Heat also have lost a pair of games in a row, but those losses were to the Jazz and the Clippers who may be the two best teams in the league. Yet before losing those two games the Heat were on a four game winning streak.
Golden State has won four of their last five games but those wins were over the Cavaliers, Magic, and Spurs. Essentially, they got fat on the weak part of their schedule. It's all starting to make sense now, finally, I checked with my sources in Vegas and the Warriors are the most bet NBA team on the day so far. Bingo! Fire up the Heat.
The Pick: Heat +1.5
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Overall Record: 31-34 ATS
NBA Betting Odds and Ends
- The Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves have played in a combined 21 games this season where the total closed between 225 and 230, and the under has cashed 66% of the time in those games.
- The Portland Trail Blazers are a trendy underdog tonight in New Orleans. Fade them
- The Houston Rockets have lost five straight games ATS. Their opponent tonight, the 76ers, have lost three straight games ATS.
- The Indiana Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
- Memphis Grizzlies contests have gone over the total in five straight games.
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