Philadelphia has started the season 1–4. Is it time to panic?
Early in the NBA season it’s always difficult to separate reality from noise. Small sample sizes throw everything out of whack. (Like the Grizzlies being 4–1 with a minus-1.7 net rating.) And teams can’t hide from garish records. A 1–4 stretch in February is a lot different than having a “1” in the win column five games into the season.
Which brings us to the Philadelphia 76ers.
They are owners of one of those 1–4 records. The defense has been atrocious. The James Harden-Joel Embiid partnership bears watching. And the offseason acquisitions haven’t been as impactful as many people (myself included) expected.
Overall, am I really worried about this team? I still think the Sixers have enough talent to figure things out. The offense has generally been very good. Embiid apparently needs to play himself in shape. And it’s not inconceivable a potential coaching change midseason could provide this group with a much-needed jolt.
There are issues, though. And I’d like to focus on one on each side of the ball. And they both involve Embiid, an MVP finalist from last season who seemed primed for a little bit of an F-you season for the people who didn’t vote for him to win the award. Instead it’s been more of an “This F-ing sucks” for Embiid so far. Let’s start on offense, where balance is everything.
So far this season, Embiid’s per-36 numbers are down practically across the board. The Process is averaging fewer points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and free throw attempts every 36 minutes compared to the 2021–22 campaign. The only place he’s gone up (albeit slightly) is … turnovers.
Now, a huge factor for these decreases is simply touches. Embiid is currently third on the team in touches per game at 67.2, behind both Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Last year, Embiid posted up nearly 10 times per game. In Philly’s first five games this season, that number is at 8.6. And he’s been less effective on post-ups, too, scoring less frequently, shooting more poorly, drawing fouls less often, and turning the ball over more often compared to last year.
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That doesn’t exactly paint a picture for why the Sixers should put Embiid in the post more. And of course, he’s an incredibly valuable pick-and-roll partner for both Harden and Maxey. Still, even as the Philly offense thrives, it’s worth monitoring how Embiid is used on that end of the floor. Despite their top-10 offensive rating, the Sixers have looked clunky at times. Late in their opening loss to Milwaukee, Harden and Embiid didn’t look quite in sync down the stretch as the team tried to grind out buckets against a good defense.
The argument for more Embiid post touches is how much pressure he puts on opponents to get out of their gameplan. Most teams are not built to guard generational big men on the block. And doubling and scrambling leads to its own set of problems. Embiid’s ability to draw fouls also messes up rotations and puts Philly in the bonus early.
Now, an undercurrent to all of this is Embiid’s conditioning. Doc Rivers has already mentioned that his big man is not in optimal shape after dealing with plantar fasciitis over the summer. Perhaps the Sixers want to go to Embiid more, but his body is not really allowing it. That definitely appears to be an issue on the defensive end of the floor.
For all the curiosity about Philly’s long-term prospects on offense, the defense is an immediate concern. The Sixers are hemorrhaging points. The starting lineup is passable, and after that it gets bleak. Philly’s second-most used unit, which includes Embiid, has a 139.7 defensive rating. The Sixers are basically turning opponents into the Harlem Globetrotters on offense. Overall, Philly has the sixth-worst defense in the NBA, and the reasons are piling up.
The perimeter defense hasn’t been good, even with the additions of two-way hopefuls in De’Anthony Melton and Danuel House. The transition defense has been laughable. And opponents are shooting 75.2% in the restricted area, something that just shouldn’t happen with a generational defensive big man on the floor.
Again, not to single out Embiid, but he’s the heart of Philly’s defense. The Sixers currently have a 116.4 defensive rating with him on the court, which would be by far the worst mark of his career. Embiid’s perimeter defenders haven‘t exactly done him any favors. He’s also not helping by how deep he’s dropping on some pick and rolls. The Sixers are giving up too much space, which is a combination of both talent and effort. When defending ball handlers in pick and rolls, last season Embiid gave up only 0.85 points per possession, per Synergy. That number has crept up to 1.05 this year. It’s not like teams are torching Embiid there, but opponents are finding more space.
Ultimately, it’s Embiid’s role to cut off the paint. Instead, teams are doing a better job of collapsing Philly’s defense, which has led to an uptick in corner threes. Combined with the success at the rim, that’s a recipe for disaster for Philly.
The silver lining here is there is, uh, room for improvement. And the Sixers have had some tough early games against the Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. It’s definitely not time for full blown panic in Philadelphia. But if the team can’t clean up some of its hiccups on both sides of the ball, those early season quirks could quickly set in as reality.
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