Golden State’s “Two Timeline” experiment hasn’t gone swimmingly to start the season.
As much as it may be a still-early-in-the-season quirk, here is a shocking statement of fact considering how these teams have been discussed since opening night: Not only do the Warriors have the same number of losses as the Lakers as of Nov. 2, Golden State also has a worse net rating. That means, if you really wanted to, you could mount an argument that the Lakers (among many others) have been better than the Dubs so far this season.
Of course, that’s not what I’m about to do. The moribund Lakers (on a two-game win streak!) simply serve as a fascinating touchstone when it comes to the Warriors. Golden State, by most expectations, still belongs in the realm of title contenders. So then what’s the reason for the current malaise for the defending champs, slumming it with the dregs of the league? The health has generally been good, and Stephen Curry has more or less picked up from when he left off as Finals MVP. The answer lies within the younger crop of players the Dubs are desperately trying to develop alongside their championship core.
Much ink, metaphorical or otherwise, has been spilled on Golden State’s “Two Timeline” experiment. In addition to Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, the organization has been trying to mix in recent lottery picks James Wiseman, Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga to turn them into regular contributors. That plan has already hit some snags.
Kuminga has been in and out of the rotation to begin the season. In three games he’s played double-digit minutes, in three others he’s played a combined 18, and in the two remaining he’s collected 0. Kuminga hasn’t hit a three all season, and hasn’t performed consistently enough to be a defensive option either. Moody has been the best of three, logging regular minutes and shooting decently from outside. He seems the most NBA ready of the young group, and has had some nice moments playing along with the starters.
And then there’s Wiseman. The player with the highest expectations has also been the most disappointing. The former No. 2 overall pick has appeared in all eight games, and the Warriors have been falling behind quickly whenever he’s on the floor. Golden State has a minus-24.8 net rating with Wiseman playing so far this season, including a ghastly 122.5 defensive rating. Not even playing with the greatest shooter of all time has helped cover up for some of Wiseman’s deficiencies. In his time shared with Steph—the player who has lifted all boats perhaps better than anyone in recent NBA history—the Dubs still have a minus-11.6 net in 54 minutes.
Wiseman’s biggest issue is his defense. His athletic tools are enticing on offense, but he hasn’t been able to pair them to his instincts on the other end of the floor. Wiseman is giving up a ton of space when dropping on pick and rolls, essentially inviting ball handlers into the lane. Opponents are shooting 61.3% in the paint against Wiseman, compared to only 54.8% against Kevon Looney. Wiseman lumbers around the floor defensively. And while his physical gifts could even allow him to become an effective switcher one day, he doesn’t play with the connectedness defensively we’ve come to expect based on previous iterations of the Warriors. Teams are eager to attack whenever Wiseman is in the game, because he often feels to be a read or two behind his teammates.
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Wiseman is not alone in his struggles. One name we haven’t mentioned yet is Jordan Poole, who also hasn’t been as effective to start this year. Poole is in an interesting place in the Warriors hierarchy. He’s clearly further along than the Moody/Wiseman/Kuminga group after already having meaningfully contributed to a championship run. And yet he certainly has room to grow, and Steve Kerr is, to some degree, likely still testing the to what extent Poole can do things on his own.
The defense has also been an issue with Poole on the court, as Golden State has a 119.3 defensive rating in his minutes. Part of the issue is Poole has been in the unenviable position of trying to carry some less-than-stellar bench lineups. Poole has played 49 minutes with all three of Steph, Klay, and Dray, and 94 minutes without them. In those Poole + non-Steph/Klay/Dray minutes, Golden State has a minus-15.2 net rating. There just isn’t enough two-way juice in those groups, putting a lot of pressure on Poole’s defense, scoring, and ability to create, all while opponents load up on him.
Perhaps even more alarmingly, the Poole-Steph-Klay trio has also struggled this season, having been outscored by 22 points in only 53 minutes. That three guard lineup took the Nuggets by storm in the first round of the 2022 playoffs, though it’s been on an up-and-down trajectory since. That splash trio was on fire against Denver, then a minus against Memphis, then great against Dallas, and then sparsely used and a minus again in the Finals. Now, through the early portion of this season, the returns have been quite bad.
Again, the reasons are mixed. Poole’s defense hasn’t been great. It doesn’t help that Thompson also looks a couple steps slow as he tries to regain his pre-two-massive-injuries form. Green has been pretty good to start the season but certainly not at championship speed. The three-guard lineups are not dead in the water, though they could be slightly more matchup dependent than previously believed.
Ultimately, it’s very, very far from panic time for the Warriors. There are some great signs as well! Curry is playing at an MVP-level to start the season. The starting lineup is one of the most dominant units in the league. Looney remains one of the more underrated players in the league and has become an essential part of this team’s operation.
And this time of the year remains a training ground of sorts for Kerr. He’s finding the lineups and combinations that work. Come playoff time, he will have theoretically weeded out the bad ones. (He definitely won’t be employing all-bench groups once the stakes rise.) The questions moving forward are how long the Warriors can afford to experiment in a crowded west, and what it means if the younger players don’t develop as expected. For now, Golden State has obviously earned the benefit of the doubt. But those early-season quirks won’t be early season ones forever.
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