Coming up with potential trade destinations for the linebacker who wants a new deal. Plus, Jimmy Garoppolo’s market, Baker Mayfield earning the QB1 job and more.
Filing this week’s mailbag from the press box high above where this season will end: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. And you had questions. And we had answers …
From Andres Perdomo (@andres__perdomo): What teams should we expect to make a push at Roquan Smith?
Andres, one thing that I think is so interesting about this situation is that as good a player as Smith is, he’s really not an ideal fit for Matt Eberflus’s defense. Look at the Colts’ linebackers (Eberflus’s former team)—Shaquille Leonard, Bobby Okereke and E.J. Speed are all big, long, hyperathletic players. Smith, conversely, has a tree-stump sort of build and relies more on instincts than flat-out speed to fuel his Zach Thomas–like game.
That’s not to say Smith doesn’t have a home in Eberflus’s defense. Eberflus is a really good defensive coach and would make it work. I just wonder whether that’s part of the issue in how Smith would perceive any contract offer he’d get from the team. I also think it’s why, in an era when length in linebackers is increasingly being valued, it’s not so easy to find a home for him.
Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports
Presuming a new deal has to be part of the equation, since that contract issue is why the Bears and Smith are at this impasse in the first place, you’d be asking another team to fork over enough draft capital to make Chicago GM Ryan Poles satisfied and enough money to convince Smith to sign away his future at the height of his value as a football player.
Who’d do that? The Broncos make some sense, because they’re all in with the group they’ve built over the last couple of years, and Smith would give the team a heart-and-soul player on defense to match with Russell Wilson on offense (kind of like how Bobby Wagner was that guy in Seattle). The problem there is Denver’s already short on picks, after the Wilson trade. Depending on Kenneth Murray’s health, the Chargers are another team that plays the sort of Vic Fangio type of scheme that Smith’s used to, and might have a need.
I like the idea of the Cowboys doing something here, too, because it’d free up the coaches to get even more creative with Micah Parsons, but I’m not sure that’s realistic.
From Mr. Schwab (@schwab_mr): Tell me one problem with this plan. Colts tank for three years. Draft Arch Manning, Marvin Harrison Jr., Eden James and A.J. Vinateri. Profit.
Mr. Schwab, are you sure you don’t want to wait for Marshall? Arch is just a nephew, not a son.
From NFLcritical (@NFLcritical): Which teams are legitimately interested in Jimmy Garoppolo and what are 49ers expecting in return?
NFL critical, I don’t think, at this point, there’s anyone serious about bringing Garoppolo in at anything close to the number on his contract (he’s due a $24.2 million base salary with $800,000 in per-game roster bonuses). And I think that part of this would have been very different if things played out differently with Garoppolo’s shoulder—if he’d gotten the surgery sooner, or if the rehab had taken the way he and the Niners had hoped it would.
At this point, my sense is the Niners would take a lot less than their initial ask back in February (two second-round picks) to turn the page on the Garoppolo era. For it to happen, though, would likely mean there being a material change to some other team’s quarterback situation, be it through injury or poor play at the position.
It’s hard to forecast those sorts of things happening.
From that ute cowboy (@tjacobson0824): How concerning is the Cowboys’ WR situation to start the season in your opinion?
Well, with Michael Gallup and James Washington both coming back from injury, and Amari Cooper gone, there’s no question the onus is going to be on CeeDee Lamb to take a major step forward in his third year as a pro. And part of that will probably have to mean being halfway decent around him which, obviously, will be more difficult with Washington and Gallup on the shelf, presuming neither is out there for Week 1.
So who would I keep an eye on? Noah Brown’s taken advantage of his opportunities in camp, has lost some weight and, going into his sixth year, looks like he really knows what he’s doing out there. Then, there’s Simi Fehoko, who is big enough, and deployed in a certain way, that I actually thought he’d been playing tight end when I talked to Cowboys people about him after Tuesday’s practice. The reality is he’s very much like a hybrid in how they use him, which gives the staff another option.
And then there’s the reality here that when you pay your quarterback at the top of the market, you’ll probably eventually have times when you’re asking him to make the difference for some sort of deficiency you have. No question, to some degree, early in the season, it’ll be on Dak Prescott to do that for Dallas.
From ƈɦʀɨ$ (@ChrisInPainn): Thoughts on Carolina and Baker winning the job?
Chris, I think Baker Mayfield will win the Panthers’ job, yes. But not because it’s rigged—I think he’s legitimately the best quarterback on the team. And I say that as someone who thinks Sam Darnold’s been hosed in the way his development’s been handled. Over his first four years in the league, he played in three offensive systems and never got to throw behind even an average offensive line. He really didn’t have much of a shot.
Now, the problem for him is that he really hasn’t progressed much since coming out of college as the raw, athletic, tough and likable USC quarterback who had a lot of work to do to become a proficient pro. He still doesn’t see the field fast enough and isn’t super comfortable playing from the pocket. Mayfield, on the other hand, has shown strong accuracy outside the numbers, arm strength and playmaking ability.
The Panthers’ idea in acquiring Mayfield was that it’d set a floor for the team. They’d be at least average at the position. And Mayfield’s shown in camp already, by the sounds of it, that he can at least get them there.
From Matt Hoffmeyer (@MattHoffy2): When and what is your expectation with the Deshaun Watson suspension?
Matt, I think we’ll get something in the next nine days or so (which would be by Friday, Aug. 19). That’s an educated guess, based on the fact that the CBA prescribes an expedited appeals process and based on the amount of material that Peter C. Harvey has to sort through. It’s not just the 16-page decision filed by Sue L. Robinson. It’s also some 215 pages of the initial report from the league. Plus the NFL’s appeal brief and the NFLPA’s reply brief.
So I think it’ll take a little bit for Harvey to get through it, and he could still leave the league and union, like Robinson did, with a window to make another run at a settlement.
As for what will happen with Watson’s suspension, I think it’s fair to guess that Harvey will extend it. I don’t think the league would go to the trouble of filing the appeal if there weren’t real plans to extend the suspension (remember, Robinson was jointly appointed, and Harvey most certainly was not). I think the key will be coming down hard enough, while avoiding going to court again. That’d put my guess at 10 or 12 games, perhaps with a hefty fine.
From Ian (@IanTheMick17): Albert, do you think NE would consider trading Damien Harris before the season begins?
Ian, yeah, I think it’ll depend on how the young backs are coming along. Rhamondre Stevenson, as I see it, has established himself as a starting-level player. Veteran Ty Montgomery’s there, too, and we’ll see what happens with James White’s health. But really, to me, much of it probably connects to the two guys New England spent draft picks on— Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris.
If one or both take a big step forward, then that’ll give the Patriots flexibility. And thereafter, it’d really come down to New England’s getting something significantly more valuable than it might in a comp pick if the team lets Harris leave after next year. (They might wind up with a fourth- or fifth-round comp pick for him … and that’s if they’re quiet otherwise in free agency.)
I think if you put all together, you’d probably rather just get the year of service from Harris. But maybe someone will be desperate at the position a few weeks from now, like the Rams were last year after losing Cam Akers, when they dealt a couple of picks to the Patriots for Sony Michel.
From Craig Daszkiewicz (@Kegger1986): Patriots offense struggles in camp ... is it just too much too soon or is it about the players on the field and can it be fixed?
Craig, I’ve heard a lot of people say the Patriots are trying to put in the Shanahan offense, and I don’t think that’s exactly it. The reality is that Bill Belichick has admired that scheme forever and has had elements of it in forever—I can remember the Patriots putting in outside-zone elements going all the way back to 2006, after they drafted Laurence Maroney.
More so, I think what you’re seeing now is the untangling of an offense that had become very heavy, after lots of annual addition and very little subtraction from the system, through 20 years with Tom Brady at quarterback. So the Shanahan elements in there have been there, and it probably makes sense for Mac Jones to run that stuff, because that’s what he did under Steve Sarkisian at Alabama.
The problems, from there, are whether the guys coaching it are adept at teaching it, and if the personnel fits in. Anyone from the Shanahan tree will tell you that the key is in the details of how it’s taught—there’s a reason, for example, why line coaches like Bill Callahan, John Benton and Chris Foerster are so valuable to those who’ve come up in the system, and even those like Rams line coach Kevin Carberry, who learned from guys like Callahan, have become important figures for their bosses.
As for the personnel, you need to have athletic linemen who can block in space. If you don’t, it is one of those systems that can go from looking good to looking really bad in a hurry.
So if your question is whether it can be fixed, I really don’t know. I’d tell you to watch the line early in the year. That’ll tell you all you need to know. And if it doesn’t work? Well, the Patriots do have a lot in their bag they can go to. But how fast can they make those things work with two guys new to the offensive side, Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, coaching it? There are a lot of fair questions to ask here.
From Kevin Harlan Forever (@oblongtakes): Tanking teams seem to hire defensive coaches (Bears, Texans). Is the era of actual defensive head coaching hires coming to an end?
Harlan, you’re right to look at recent trends and think that way—the last three coaches to win the Super Bowl (Sean McVay, Bruce Arians, Andy Reid) have an offensive background. The hiring trend’s gone that way, too (although it might not be as stark as you’d think, with 14 of 22 hires since 2020 coming from offensive side, and that’s counting Matt Rhule and Urban Meyer as offensive coaches).
Thing is, if you go back a little further, the picture looks a little different. Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Tony Dungy and Bill Cowher combined to win 11 of 18 Super Bowls between 2001 and ’18, and those guys all come from a defensive (or special teams) background. Mike Vrabel is the reigning NFL Coach of the Year and was a home-run hire for the Titans. Sean McDermott’s turned the Bills into a juggernaut. Brandon Staley’s off to a promising start with the Chargers.
The one argument I do think is valid here is that it can be tough on a young quarterback early in his career playing for a defensive head coach, because, a lot of times, it will lead to his offensive coaches getting hired away. Still, my feeling is those issues are manageable (we’ll see how one such situation plays out in Buffalo this year), and the job of head coach is much bigger than holding a play sheet on Sundays.
Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports
From Matt Ramas (@matt_ramas): Will the Dolphins alter their plans with Tua given the future draft picks they lost from the tampering charges?
I get the question, Matt—you’re thinking that not having their first-round pick next year (and only having the Niners’ pick, which figures to be pretty low in the round) would make it harder to replace Tua Tagovailoa after 2022, and maybe buy Tagovailoa another year. Logically, that makes sense. But in practice, I think it’ll be more difficult.
If Tagovailoa doesn’t make the Pro Bowl but starts all year, his option number for 2024 will probably be somewhere around $25 million, and it’d be fully guaranteed the moment the team picks it up. The Dolphins will have to make a decision on that by early May ’23, the same way the Cardinals and Giants had to make those decisions for ’23 on Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones last March.
There’s a line in the sand. Generally, not picking up the option but keeping the player on for his fourth year, which becomes his walk year, has brought mixed results. It worked out for the Jaguars and Blake Bortles in 2017, with a trip to the AFC title game (though then Jacksonville paid him and that didn’t go as well). It didn’t so much in the cases of Mitch Trubisky in Chicago or Baker Mayfield in Cleveland.
Looking at that history, if they make the conscious decision that Tagovailoa isn’t going to be the long-term answer for Mike McDaniel’s new program, and can’t get, say, C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young (or whoever makes it to the end of the college season with top-10 pick status), then there’d be merit in the idea you just get an affordable holdover (Jimmy Garoppolo) to get you to the next guy. So yeah, there’s a lot on the line this year for Tua.
From Moose Block (@moose_block): Will the Rams make a QB move if Matthew Stafford’s tendinitis lingers?
Moose, I really don’t think they’re at that point with Stafford yet. He’s managed his elbow for a while now. That said, of course, you have to take anything wrong with a quarterback’s throwing shoulder/elbow/arm in general very, very seriously. And if this turns into a bigger problem, then, yes, absolutely, I think they’d consider their options.
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