One season after going 12-5 and securing the AFC’s 1-seed, the Titans’ over/under at SI Sportsbook is just 9.5 wins.
Life has come at the Titans fast.
Tennessee had it all entering the playoffs last year—the No. 1 seed, Derrick Henry back from injury and A.J. Brown and Julio Jones ready on the outside.
This is where we cue up the hysterical, “And nothing can go wrong! OH NO, IT ALL WENT WRONG” video.
Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions in the divisional round game versus the Bengals, the last of which led to Cincinnati’s game-winning field goal. The Titans lost at home despite sacking Joe Burrow nine times!
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: IND |
Oh, yes, it’s all gone wrong for the Titans since then.
Tannehill’s future with the team came into question after his disastrous game and the team drafted Malik Willis in the third round.
Brown, who dominated the Bengals to the tune of a 5-142-1 line, is now with the Eagles after a draft-day trade. The Titans used the first-round pick they received to draft his potential replacement in Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks.
Jones is currently a free agent but the Titans acquired veteran Robert Woods for a sixth-round pick. Woods, however, is returning from an ACL injury.
Add it all up and you’re looking at a 1-seed for whom the oddsmakers are banking on regression this upcoming season. The Titans’ over/under at SI Sportsbook is just 9.5 wins juiced to the under at -150 odds, and the Colts are actually the division favorites.
Let’s explore which over/under bet makes sense for a Titans team aiming to prove the oddsmakers wrong and win the AFC South for a third straight season.
Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook
George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
Tennessee Titans Over/Under: 9.5 - O (+110) | U (-150)
2021 record: 12-5; First AFC South; 1-seed; Lost divisional round vs. Bengals
AFC South future odds: +150 (Second)
AFC future odds: +1400 (Tied-eighth)
Super Bowl future odds: +2500 (Tied-13th)
Key additions: WR Robert Woods, WR Treylon Burks, TE Austin Hooper
Key losses: WR A.J. Brown, WR Julio Jones, OL Rodger Saffold
GM Jon Robinson once again navigated a difficult salary cap situation with the release of several key veterans. Robinson also avoided any in-season contract drama with the trade of Brown to the Eagles during the first round of the draft.
There are serious questions about whether the Titans effectively filled the holes in their roster. There are no obvious replacements for Saffold and Quessenberry, who were fixtures on an offensive line that allowed too many sacks. The only proven wide receivers on the roster are Woods, who is on the mend from reconstructive knee surgery during the second half of last season, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, an undrafted rookie in 2020 who has 41 career receptions.
Burks, the 18th pick in the draft, was alternately limited or unavailable for on-field work throughout the offseason because of issues with asthma. That comes after 2020 first-round pick Isaiah Wilson was cut after one forgettable season and 2021 first-round choice Caleb Farley contributed almost nothing because of injury issues.—David Boclair
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SCHEDULE
Week 1: Giants
Week 2: At Bills
Week 3: Raiders
Week 4: At Colts
Week 5: At Commanders
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: Colts
Week 8: At Texans
Week 9: At Chiefs
Week 10: Broncos
Week 11: At Packers
Week 12: Bengals
Week 13: At Eagles
Week 14: Jaguars
Week 15: At Chargers
Week 16: Texans
Week 17: Cowboys
Week 18: At Jaguars
It’s interesting that the odds are so juiced to the under for a team that has gone 23-10 over the last two years while winning the division both years. Clearly, oddsmakers believe the Titans will struggle without Brown to replicate last year’s regular-season success. A brutal schedule is not helping the Titans’ cause, either.
Tennessee is an underdog in five games and involved in four pick’em contests in early wagering, showcasing why the oddsmakers see 9-8 or worse as a strong possibility.
Let’s start with the divisional games. Tennessee went 5-1 last year, with its lone loss coming in stunning fashion at home to the Texans.
Indianapolis should be better with Matt Ryan and has a deeper roster than the Titans. Let’s project a split there. While the Titans should sweep both of the lowly Texans and Jaguars, the Titans did lose to some bad teams last year en route to the 1-seed.
We’re going to project 3-1 in those games, which puts us at 4-2 overall.
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Now, let’s check out the other AFC games. The Titans and the AFC South have the unfortunate draw of getting the AFC West, and Tennessee winning the division means it will also face the Super Bowl favorite Bills and reigning AFC champion Bengals.
That is a brutal slate. Absolutely brutal. The Titans welcome the Raiders, Broncos and Bengals and visit the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers.
Tennessee projects as good not great and that makes us believe 2-1 is a strong possibility for those home games. Tennessee is favored over Las Vegas but the Broncos and Bengals games are currently pick’em games.
A 2-1 record in those games would have Tennessee at 6-3.
We cannot be as generous with the road slate. Tennessee is an underdog by at least five points in each game, showcasing how little respect the Titans are receiving. However, for as much love as the Chargers and Brandon Staley receive, Los Angeles does seem to lose some games each year that it should not considering its talent level.
Let’s go 1-2 there, banking on the Titans’ talent rising in big spots. That has Tennessee at 7-5 (and we acknowledge 6-6 is feasible).
Last up are the NFC games, featuring the NFC East and crossover game with the Packers.
The Titans get the Giants and Cowboys at home and visit the Eagles and Commanders. Tennessee will beat the Giants and we expect a road win at Washington. The Eagles and Cowboys games are the trickier ones to prognosticate.
Tennessee is favored versus Dallas and an underdog in Philadelphia and that seems about right. Splitting those two games seems a safe call, although 0-2 could happen. The Dallas game happens in Week 17, so clearly injuries could be a factor by then.
Those three wins have the Titans at 10-6/9-7 depending on your view on the Chargers game.
George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
The last game is Green Bay at Lambeau Field and in case you forgot, the Titans no-showed last time they visited the Packers. This writer may or may not have lost a fantasy football championship that night because Aaron Rodgers outscored Tannehill by quite a large margin in that game and Tannehill didn’t play the final drive.
But who remembers such details?
Anyway, the Titans are underdogs for that game and likely lose.
That loss would have the Titans at 10-7 or 9-8 depending on your view on the Chargers game. It’s worth noting, though, that we had the Titans losing a game to the Jaguars or Texans this year. They could easily go 4-0 in those games.
Considering how juiced the odds are to the under, we’re willing to take the over here at plus-odds. Mike Vrabel is a good coach and Tennessee should be motivated after last season’s playoff flop. A 10-7 finish can certainly happen.
If we project 5-1 in the division, the Titans just have to win one of three against the Chargers, Eagles and Cowboys.
If we project 4-2 in the division, the Chargers would need to win two of three against the Chargers, Eagles and Cowboys.
These results also feature wins over the Giants and Commanders and wins in at least two of the three home games against the Bengals, Broncos and Raiders.
All these scenarios seem reasonable. Let’s take the better odds.
BET: Over 9.5 wins (+110)
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