SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano focuses on the most notable fantasy-relevant free agents and their potential destinations
The start of the 2021 league year begins next week (March 17), and with it will no doubt come a bevy of players signings, releases, and maybe even some high-profile trades (Deshaun Watson?). But before that happens, NFL teams will decide whether to retain free agents via the franchise tag or let them walk into the free-agent market.
While many of us live in the fantasy world and have high hopes for best-case scenarios that would reward us with oodles of offensive success, we have to look at things from a real-football perspective. I might love the thought of Aaron Jones landing in Atlanta, but would the Packers let him walk at such a low tag price? So, here’s my list of the top 20 fantasy free agents with realistic predictions about their future for the 2021 season.
1. Dak Prescott: The Dallas Morning News reports talks between the Cowboys and Prescott have been “more productive than they have been” in previous months. That’s good news, but ultimately it looks like he’ll take the franchise tag at a guaranteed $37.7 million. The Cowboys would be wise to upgrade the offensive line in the NFL draft, so Prescott could be in an even better spot to produce for fantasy managers in 2021.
Prediction: Prescott tagged by Cowboys
2. Aaron Jones: Jones has finished as a top-five fantasy running back in each of the last two seasons, and he’ll be just 26 when next season starts. The Packers have A.J. Dillon waiting in the wings, and the team hasn't used the franchise tag in over a decade. However, the low running back tag total (around $8 million) makes it a no-brainer for Green Bay to retain him for another year. It isn't good for Jones's wallet, but it makes sense.
Prediction: Jones tagged by Packers
3. Allen Robinson: Robinson has been a top-10 fantasy wideout in each of the last two seasons, which is quite an accomplishment considering the Bears quarterbacks. Bears general manager Ryan Pace recently said Robinson could very well be tagged, and it could be imminent since the team is quite thin at wide receiver. A tag and trade scenario has been bandied about, but staying in Chicago is looking likely.
Prediction: Robinson tagged by Bears
4. Chris Godwin: Godwin’s best fantasy landing spot would not be Tampa Bay, as the team has a lot of mouths to feed on the offensive side of the football. We have to be realistic though, and the Buccaneers would be crazy to let go of a young wide receiver who averaged seven targets a game in Tom Brady’s first season with the team. He’ll remain a No. 2 fantasy wideout, but Godwin’s ceiling will have a cap next season.
Prediction: Godwin tagged by Buccaneers
5. Kenny Golladay: Injuries caused Golladay’s value to slide this past season, but he should be 100 percent and ready to roll for the 2021 campaign. He would no doubt draw plenty of interest on the free-agent market, but I’d be surprised if the Lions let Golladay walk. Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are both slated to become free agents, so Golladay would be the top option for Jared Goff. I think he’ll remain in Detroit in 2021.
Prediction: Golladay tagged by Lions
6. Will Fuller: Fuller was on pace to produce a monster 2020 campaign before the NFL suspended him for a violation of the league’s PED rules. In his 11 games, Fuller ranked seventh among wide receivers in fantasy points per game (17.2 PPG) and was on pace to produce nearly 1,300 yards. The Houston Chronicle reports the Texans won’t tag him at $16 million, but they want to retain him. I'm not sure that will happen, however.
Prediction: Fuller re-signs with the Texans or signs with the Packers
7. JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster finished 16th in fantasy points at wideout this past season, and his 19.6 percent target share ranked second on the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger's restructured contract opens up $15 million in cap space, but the team still has Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. It'll also still be hard-pressed to keep Smith-Schuster for the type of money he'll likely demand on the open market.
Prediction: Smith-Schuster signs with the Jets or Raiders
8. Chris Carson: Carson missed four games this past season, but he still finished as the RB19 while averaging nearly 16 fantasy points per game. The Seahawks want to have a great focus on the rushing attack next season, but reports suggest that rushing attack won’t include Carson. He’ll be 26 when the 2021 campaign begins, and Carson should have no shortage of suitors. I’d expect him to remain a No. 2 fantasy runner.
Prediction: Carson signs with the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets
9. James Conner: Conner is coming off a forgettable 2020 season, as he ranked a mere 27th in fantasy points among running backs while missing three games due to injuries. A fresh start could be a good thing for Conner, and the Steelers have both Benny Snell Jr. and Anthony McFarland waiting in the wings. The Pittsburgh product will be just 26 when next season begins, and a change of scenery would be beneficial.
Prediction: Conner signs with the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets
10. Kenyan Drake: Drake finished 16th in fantasy points among runners last season, mostly on the strength of a strong second half. His versatile skill set makes him a good fit for what the Cardinals do on the offensive side of the football, and he’s better off as the lead option in a committee situation than taking on a true featured role. Coach Kliff Kingsbury has talked up Chase Edmonds, but I’m not sure he’ll be a top running back.
Prediction: Drake re-signs with the Cardinals or signs with the Falcons
11. Jameis Winston: Winston was all but invisible in the stat sheets last season with a mere one pass while playing behind Drew Brees and Taysom Hill. There have been many rumors about the Saints wanting to keep him and put him atop the depth chart, ahead of Hill. In fact, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said Winston would be "in the driver's seat."
Prediction: Winston re-signs with the Saints
12. Curtis Samuel: Samuel had a slow start to last season, averaging 4.6 targets and 8.7 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Over his final 10 games, however, Samuel averaged 7.4 targets and 16.9 points. That was good enough for him to rank 12th in that time. The Panthers still have D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, so I think Samuel walks.
Prediction: Samuel signs with the Football Team or Jets
13. Hunter Henry: Henry finished last season ranked 12th in fantasy points among tight ends (10.6 points per game). He also ranked sixth in targets per game (6.6) among tight ends. Playing with Justin Herbert is an attractive fantasy scenario (and could play out), but Henry will have no shortage of suitors as he hits the open market.
Prediction: Henry re-signs with the Chargers or signs with the Jaguars
14. Antonio Brown: Brown didn't put up elite fantasy totals as he did for most of his NFL career in Pittsburgh, but he did score 13-plus points in five of his last six games, including the playoffs. He was also a model citizen during his time with the Bucs, and I’m not sure he’d want to play anywhere but Tampa Bay and with his pal Tom Brady.
Prediction: Brown re-signs with the Buccaneers
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15. Marvin Jones Jr.: Jones had an under-the-radar solid season for fantasy managers in 2020, finishing 18th in points among wideouts. Of course, a big part of that success came in the absence of an injured Kenny Golladay. Jones is as good as gone with the Lions adding veteran Tyrell Williams, so he’ll be in a different uniform next season.
Prediction: Jones Jr. signs with the Dolphins, Football Team, or Packers
16. Corey Davis: Davis is coming off his best statistical season, posting personal bests in yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points. Still, Titans general manager Jon Robison has indicated Davis is no lock to return to the team. He’d have more fantasy value if viewed as a potential No. 1 wideout somewhere else, and I think Davis could be on the move.
Prediction: Davis signs with the Football Team, Packers, Patriots, or Ravens
17. Leonard Fournette: Fournette finished an uninspiring 35th in fantasy points among running backs during the regular season, but he was an absolute postseason baller as “Playoff Lenny” was born. Bucs coach Bruce Arians said the team almost cut him last December, however, so he might not be back for a back-to-back attempt in 2021.
Prediction: Fournette re-signs with the Buccaneers or signs with the Bills or Dolphins
18. T.Y. Hilton: Hilton ranked an unimpressive 42nd in fantasy points among wideouts in 2020, but he ranked ninth during a torrid, late-season stretch starting in Week 13. He's lost a step at the age of 31, but Hilton still has enough juice to make an impact as a No. 2 wideout in any offense. At this point, he's no lock to remain with the Colts.
Prediction: Hilton re-signs with the Colts or signs with the Jaguars, Packers, or Patriots
19. Jonnu Smith: Smith found the end zone eight times this past season, but he failed to rank in the top 15 in fantasy points among tight ends. Smith is an athletic, talented player who will be just 26 years old when next season begins, so he’ll garner a lot of interest on the free-agent market. There’s also plenty of teams in need at tight end.
Prediction: Smith signs with the Bengals, Bills, or Jaguars
20. Cam Newton: Newton finished last season with a mere eight touchdown passes, but he didn’t have a lot of help in the passing game in New England. His rushing totals kept him fantasy relevant, but the former superstar is certainly on the downside of his career in terms of statistical success. He’ll be a bridge quarterback at best in 2021.
Prediction: Newton re-signs with the Patriots or signs with the Football Team.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for all of the latest breaking fantasy football news and the best analysis in the business!
