One of these second-year QBs could offer good value; the other might be too risky.
Before the NFL draft later this month and the rookie class that comes with it, I feel it’s important to attune your mind to player values ahead of redraft season or by adjusting your dynasty mindset—in the same way and same time front offices and general managers around the league prep their rosters. We do so not only to establish an internal and personal set of positional rankings, but we need to establish how our opinions are different from the broader general consensus.
With that in mind, I’ll be going position by position this week to highlight players I’m buying and selling—starting with the quarterback position. This doesn't mean I recommend you literally buy and sell these players. This is more an exercise in value and whether a player is over- or under-valued by the masses.
QB Buy
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
So if we can all agree that this football team was something akin to a circus sideshow last year, led by former head coach Urban Meyer, then why shouldn’t we also believe this team will rebound under new leadership? An offseason removed from all that rookie hype, Lawrence has a host of fresh talent surrounding him, plus four picks to help this team from Days 1 and 2 of the draft (Nos. 1, 33, 65 and 70 overall). That first pick overall is likely to be a pass rusher and the defense does seem to need more help, but with an overhaul comes a silver lining.
They’ll get Travis Etienne back after a lost season. Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Zay Jones were added as playmakers. Brandon Scherff bolsters their offensive line. This should be a team playing with a chip on its shoulder and I suspect they'll be playing with something to prove.
You can wait on Lawrence since he is the 20th QB in redraft and his dynasty value has been trickling down since Week 1 of last season. For those waiting on a signal-caller on draft day—which should be everyone—I’d be happy to let T-Law fall in my lap as a high-upside QB2.
Is Ryan better than Carson Wentz? I think most would, including the Indianapolis Colts, would say yes. With that in mind, why are we then ranking Ryan as the redraft QB21?
Wentz finished as the QB14 a year ago with the Colts and now Ryan falls into the near-exact situation with a much better resume. The what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitude in fantasy football betrays managers in these situations. Perhaps because drafting him is too obvious. There are no bonus points for creativity in drafting Ryan in what will be his 15th season. The former Boston College standout hasn’t had a running back like Jonathan Taylor in a long time, maybe ever. He’s had a couple solid runners, particularly Michael Turner, but that was about a decade ago.
Around the midway point of the 2021 season, Michael Pittman Jr. was seen as the next-great commodity at the wide receiver position before cooling with inconsistent production. I understand having concerns about the lack of depth beyond Pittman, but there’s certainly room for a breakout rookie plus there are a slew of veterans available to consider like Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry and more. Considering Ryan can be had near the end of the drafts, there’s no risk and only upside.
QB Sell
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
The second-year question mark is ranked as the QB14. That’s one spot below Aaron Rodgers.
We’ve seen almost nothing from Lance and if we view fantasy outcomes on a sliding scale, we of course have to appreciate his ceiling scoring potential, but a QB14 ranking completely ignores his scoring floor. This is a team that still has Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe they trade him during the draft and maybe they don’t. If you can grab him as a high-upside backup, then sure, roll the dice and maybe he can outperform your starting QB.
I think there’s a lot to be excited about in San Francisco, but I have concerns as well. Deebo Samuel still hasn’t received an extension. This is a run-first team that’s proven just about any back they use will be successful. If Garoppolo sticks around, what happens if Lance has a stinker and throws four picks in a game? A possible pull from the starting lineup, especially if the 49ers have a winning record, could prompt the coaching staff to move back to Garoppolo for the sake of a playoff run.
Given the risks, I’m not reaching for Lance. I would only want him if I could sit him on my fantasy bench behind a much more established and dependable starter—like most of the guys from the first two QB tiers.
Bill Ingram/The Palm Beach Post/USA Today Network
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Despite being one of the most dominant, explosive and exciting quarterbacks in the league, everything is trending in the wrong direction for Jackson and it hasn’t affected his redraft and dynasty rankings all that much. After his MVP season in 2019, we expected more of the same in 2020. He didn’t do that. We thought ahead of the 2021 season he would rebound, get back to his regular MVP self. He didn’t do that either. Now is when it all finally falls back in place! Right?
You could certainly argue Marquise Brown really flashed last year—at least when Jackson was healthy—so a huge season could be coming. You could argue Mark Andrews will always do his thing, because he certainly has. You could argue J.K. Dobbins will be back at 100% plus the team seems to be interested in adding another strong running back to the roster, given the recent Melvin Gordon rumors. You could argue Rashod Bateman is a promising young receiver and Devin Duvernay is still blossoming as a playmaker in the slot. The Ravens have been one of the most consistent teams in the league under John Harbaugh and 2021 looks more like the exception, and not the rule. All valid arguments.
However, we just can’t ignore Jackson’s back-to-back down years in fantasy and shrug it off. With a consensus QB5 ranking, we’re looking at LJ8 through purple, black and gold-colored glasses. My top-four quarterbacks are Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray. Groupthink says Jackson is ranked next, but there’s got to be a steep value step between that group and the Ravens signal-caller.
In the end, you should always be fading quarterbacks and never pay full price for them. Jackson is the case study for this outlook. He’s not a value now. He was a value ahead of his aforementioned MVP season. If he falls closer to QB10 on draft day, then my value radar will start flashing and my ears will perk up.
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