Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson Expected to Make Big Leaps

Both quarterbacks have coaches deeply invested in their improvement. Plus, why Baker Mayfield starts for the Panthers, did Robert Kraft make the right decision on Belichick over Brady and more.

I’m back. Let’s go …

From Crossed Fingers (@iTylen): Why does the media and league seem higher on Lawrence and the jags compared to Wilson and the jets when both had horrendous rookie seasons.

Tylen, I think there are two reasons. First, the legend of Trevor Lawrence has grown since 2018 and, even within a stacked 2021 draft class, he’s been seen as different, and separate, from the pack of quarterbacks to come into the league. And, second, because things were such a mess in Jacksonville last year (and he handled that mess with poise and class), I think he is getting, and it’s fair to give him, the benefit of the doubt.

Where you are right is that Wilson didn’t prove much more than Lawrence did last fall.

Wilson, as we dug through in the June 20 MMQB, tried to take on too much as a rookie, eventually developed a bit of the case of the yips, got shut down, then found his way to the other side (check out that Monday column to see how coaches are adjusting how they’re working with him now). Lawrence, conversely, was relatively steady, but opponents, without question, felt like he didn’t see the field as fast as most thought he would, and the Jags found his learning curve coming from the Clemson offense to be steeper than expected.

Both are in better places than they were a year ago. Wilson’s got a GM (Joe Douglas) and coach (Robert Saleh) who are deeply invested in him, with two first-round picks and a big-ticket free agent on the offensive line, two promising second-year skill players on board (Michael Carter, Elijah Moore), and two top-40 picks (Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall) at the skill spots. Lawrence got a head coach (Doug Pederson) who played the position in the league, has a great rep for quarterback coaching and hired a staff tailored to aid in his development.

So, yeah, Lawrence gets a little more hype now because he’s Trevor Lawrence. But I think both are positioned to make leaps this year. We’ll see if either, or both, can do it.

From Lou (@Louie95000): Packers signing another receiver?

Lou, I don’t know for sure. But I do think part of it will ride on variables such as Christian Watson’s development and Sammy Watkins’ health. And I will say that the answer I’d give here is much different than what I would’ve said even two or three years ago.

The Packers were a draft-and-develop team that rarely tinkered too much with the roster after the spring, with more invested in trying to get the most out of the homegrown talent on hand. Things started to change when Brian Gutekunst was elevated to GM after the 2018 draft. Last year, though, is when the shift to pull every lever in player acquisition hit another gear.

That, of course, relates back to Aaron Rodgers rattling cages through the first half of 2021. He wanted Green Bay to build on his timeline, and as aggressively as the Packers’ NFC rivals in Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. And maybe the Packers didn’t get all the way there, but they certainly weren’t operating the same way they have for the last three decades—mortgaging contracts to create cap space, bringing back Randall Cobb in the summer by Rodgers’ request, and taking swings on Jaylon Smith and Whitney Mercilus in midseason.

Then, there was the run they made at Odell Beckham Jr. in November. That one, of course, didn’t work out. But that they were in the mix at that point in the calendar, with that type of player, should tell you they’re gonna stay loose and ready to pounce on those sorts of opportunities should they come along.

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From Brad (@bhesch34): Bert, any news on you starting a podcast back up?

Brad, hopefully sometime soon!

From Rob (@RobinMi72274119): Do you believe Mayfield will start over Darnold?

Rob, if I had to decide right now, I think Baker Mayfield is starting opening day for the Panthers mostly because I think he’s the best quarterback on the roster. But he’ll have to be because Carolina’s being honest about this one being a real competition.

And from what I’ve heard Darnold has a few things going for him with the competition set to start in earnest. One, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo legitimately felt like there was something to work with in Darnold when he was interviewing for, and then ultimately landed, the job in Charlotte. Two, Darnold, who’s been a nice guy almost to a fault as a pro, showed more edge and fight in the spring than he did in 2021. Three, obviously, he’s got a head start on Mayfield, getting all of OTAs and minicamp to run McAdoo’s offense.

That’s why Mayfield will be playing from behind next week when camp opens. But I think he’ll catch up, and ultimately beat out Darnold and rookie Matt Corral (who came in with a long way to go coming from Lane Kiffin’s offense, but has been a relatively quick study). I believe Mayfield will be the guy who can get the most out of a really good group of skill players, and create a little behind a line that might need a month or two to come together.

Remember, the idea here in trading for Mayfield was to raise the floor at the position, and ensure that Carolina could at least get average quarterback play for what the Panthers think is a much improved roster. That’s not saying Mayfield can’t give them more than that. But they know he can give them at least that, which is why I think he’ll be starting against his old team in Week 1.

From I'm a Bengals Fan Now! (@DonRidenour): Your favorite player of all-time?

Don! It’s Jim Kelly. I loved quarterbacks growing up in the ’80s and ’90s, and Kelly, to me, was such a badass at the position. He was tough enough to have been recruited to play linebacker at Penn State. He had such command and presence in how he ran the no-huddle K-Gun offense of that era. And the Bills really relied on him to run the show in a way few teams back then would.

Obviously, a lot has been added to his story since he got done playing that makes you respect the guy even more. But just as a player, I loved him.

From Patriot for life (@MrSullivan08): How long before Kraft realizes he screwed up choosing Belichick over Brady?

Patriot, three or four years ago, I’d have bet Robert Kraft would make the decision he did to go with Bill Belichick, because Kraft’s always valued long-term viability for his franchise, going all the way back to when he first bought the team. And I’d have agreed with him then that, even with Belichick in his late 60s, there was more of a future there than there could be with a quarterback who was 42 when he ended up leaving New England.

I’ve come around a little on this one, and I think it’s because maybe I’ve come to appreciate a little more how rare what the Patriots accomplished over 20 years.

Watching Brady in New England and then Tampa, and Rodgers the last few years in Green Bay, too, the way I look at it now is if you’ve got one of these guys in their twilight, it really does make sense to go all-in on them over the short term and deal with the consequences of that later.

Why? The ability to compete for championships with that sort of quarterback is precious. And the way I see it now is getting two years is worth it, even if you’re sacrificing some sort of five- or 10-year plan to do it. The way the league is now, you can always reset, and usually do it in relatively short order. But you can’t just pull a lever and land a Rodgers or Brady.

So I understand, fully, why if you were Kraft, and picking between the greatest of the great in that spot, all things considered, you’d have gone with Belichick. But yeah … It’s fair to say there’s probably a little regret in letting Brady go, and I think you could even hear it in how Kraft turned the heat up a little on Belichick (and it wasn’t even that subtle) back at the owners meetings in March.

From Ronnie (@Tray4o): Do you believe Jimmy G will start Week 1 if he’s a 49er or not?

Ronnie, maybe I’m in the minority in thinking Jimmy Garoppolo is pretty underrated, but I do feel that way. When he’s healthy, I think he’s a really solid starter in the league, and one who should have a good, Alex Smith-in-Kansas City kind of second act to his career, as he settles into his 30s. But right now, I don’t think he’ll start in San Francisco, and I’m not sure where the open seat is for him to do it elsewhere.

Bottom line, the shoulder injury messed everything up, for both Garoppolo and the Niners. Had he not needed surgery on his rotator cuff, he’d probably be someone else’s starter right now. Even if he’d gotten the operation six weeks earlier than he did, when San Francisco’s season ended, I think there's a shot it’d have happened. But trying rehab over surgery first, created a situation where he’s still working his way back to full health.

The problem is Garoppolo’s only under contract for this year, so if you’re trading for him right now, you’re necessarily bringing him in for what he can do for you right now. And what he can do for you over the next five months, coming back off that injury, without having had OTAs or a minicamp, and with his status for camp cloudy, is pretty iffy.

It’s too bad, because, again, I think he’s a good player. He was in the Super Bowl, and started two of the last three NFC title games. But the question of his viability for 2022 is what matters here, in large part because of his contract, and that much is still very murky.

From JC (@JohnnyC1993): Is there any chance Calvin Ridley appeals his suspension? And if so what’s the likelihood it would be reduced?

Johnny, no, the appeals process is complete. Ridley is out for 2022. He can apply for reinstatement after the season.

From Ironvan (@The_Ironvan): What would be a real expectation for Mills and @LosTexans.

Ironvan, I think if you’re the Texans, your hope now is that you have a team that improves over the course of the season, and is winning games by the end of it. The 2021 season was going to be messy from the minute the lawsuits were filed against Deshaun Watson, which came after Watson’s initial trade request. And I don’t think GM Nick Caserio got the credit he deserved for handling that the way he did, finding a way to keep Watson until he could get a market-value deal for him without creating a completely toxic situation internally.

This year should be when you start to see signs of where Caserio, and now Lovie Smith, are taking the team. So what you’d want is steps forward from the sophomore class, which didn’t have a first- or second-round pick in it, but showed promise with guys such as Mills, Nico Collins, Brevin Jordan and Roy Lopez. And then, of course, you’d hope that the 2022 class, headlined by Derek Stingley and Kenyon Green, flashes early.

As for Mills, his battle this year will be, of course, to win games and improve, but it’ll also be against C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis and you get the idea. Armed with a warchest of picks the next two years, the Texans will have the ammo to replace Mills if he’s not up to snuff. But Mills emerging as a franchise quarterback would be of great benefit to Caserio—freeing up those picks to use elsewhere on the roster.

Bottom line is Mills just needs to play more. Thanks to a litany of injuries, he only started 11 games at Stanford. Add that to 11 starts last year, and he has 22 total starts over the last five football seasons, dating back to his senior year in high school. That’s why it’s hard, for now, to define a ceiling for a really talented player.

From I dont care (@goblue12): If u were the Browns owner, how would you have handled the Watson situation (assuming you already traded for him.)

Go Blue, I would’ve done two things differently.

One, I would’ve been way more out front on the decision. I’d have done that first press availability in-person, and before GM Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski did theirs, to make sure everyone knew I wasn’t hiding. Any quarterback acquisition of that magnitude—be it in the first round of the draft or through a big-ticket trade—involves ownership, and all the circumstances beyond football surrounding this one, required that even moreso. Everyone knows it. Not facing it head-on only made things harder.

Two, I’d probably have been more transparent about the process in which my team vetted the player, to help my fan base understand why I was comfortable pulling the trigger on it.

Obviously, the decision to pursue was a complicated one for the Browns, as it was for the Panthers, Saints and Falcons. For Cleveland, it involved months of research, and hiring private investigators, and working with lawyers. Detailing all that, in my mind, probably would’ve helped people understand it better.

From Jeremy Friedrichs (@FriedrichsJk): Albert, what are your thoughts on a breakout player candidate from each conference?

Jeremy, great question. Here’s my answer …

In the AFC, give me Odafe Oweh. The Ravens pass rusher, in a part-time role last year, had five sacks, and impressed everyone with his freakish athletic ability. And I look at him now getting to work with Mike Macdonald, who oversaw Aidan Hutchinson’s monster year and David Ojabo’s breakthrough campaign at Michigan last fall, and I think he could be in position to take a major step forward.

In the NFC, I’ll go with Eric Stokes, another late first-rounder from 2021. I think the Packers corner is a really good player, and now he’ll get the benefit of Jaire Alexander returning to the lineup—which should put him in position to make plays on the other side of the field for a defense that’s set up to be really, really good.

From Tre Goodwin (@TrizzyTreRogers): What is the ceiling for the Raiders?

Tre, I think Josh McDaniels is walking into a situation that’s not unlike the one Andy Reid came into in Kansas City in 2013—his Raiders should be in position to contend right away. They were in the playoffs last year, and went to the wire with the eventual AFC champs. They added Davante Adams and Chandler Jones and, I think, will have one of the better coaching staffs in the league (with McDaniels and Mick Lombardi running the offense, and Pat Graham running the defense).

Do I think they’re going to the Super Bowl? Uh … no. But even in a rugged AFC West, I could see Derek Carr and McDaniels getting Vegas to 10 wins, and setting up a pretty bright future.

From Michael Haddad (@mhaddad715): Which of the rookie QBs has the best chance to start multiple games this season?

Michael, my first answer is the obvious one—Kenny Pickett. And I’ve got some pretty incredible numbers to back it up. Thirty-three quarterbacks were taken in the first round over the 10 draft cycles between 2012 and ’21. Only one of the 33, Jordan Love, failed to start multiple games as a rookie. Go back further, extending the period from 2008 to ’21, and you’ll see over those 14 years, 44 quarterbacks went in the first round, and only two (Love and Jake Locker) didn’t get multiple starts as rookies.

So history tells us that Pickett’s going to play this year, sooner or later. And it’s not just history in general, but Steelers history in particular. In 2004, plans to let Ben Roethlisberger learn behind Tommy Maddox were scrapped in September.

Who’d be next of this year’s QBs? My guess would be Desmond Ridder in Atlanta. This will be a year for Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot to really get a good idea of where the roster is, so my sense is a lot of guys are going to play. I think Ridder’s maturity and readiness will lead to the Falcons’ brass wanting to get a good look at their third-round pick before going into the 2023 offseason.

From Josh Kellem (@JoshuaKellem): What week do you think Jameson Williams makes his debut?

I think Halloween would be optimistic, just based on the timeline (remember, he got hurt in mid-January). So let’s say he’s in play to come back in Week 7 (Oct. 23 at Dallas), just because that’s when players who are on the PUP list at the start of the season are eligible to return, and call Week 10 (Nov. 13 at Chicago) a more realistic target.

From EnragedKermit (@EnragedKermit): Do you think Quinnen Williams will have a breakout season with the new Pass Rush additions?

We’ll wrap with this one—Kermit, there’s every reason to think this will be a big year for Williams. The scheme fits him, and he’ll be in his second year in it. With Carl Lawson coming back, and Jermaine Johnson coming in, it’ll be tough for offenses to key on him. And, oh, by the way, he’s playing for a contract.

Also, Saleh had great success coaching Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, both of whom he inherited (like he did Williams), and each broke through with a double-digit sack season right around the career point Williams is at (for Buckner, it was Year 3; for Armstead, Year 5; and this is Williams’ fourth year). So the head coach knows how to get the most out of interior defensive lineman, and I think he’ll show that again this year.

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