A light heavyweight bout featuring Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark headlines this UFC Fight Night main card.
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UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
#UFCVegas15 MMA Betting Preview
The new main event (after the postponement of Blaydes vs. Lewis) features Anthony “Lionheart” Smith, who returns for the third time this year. He will take on Devin Clark, who also is making his third walk to the octagon this year, but will also look to make it three wins in a row to round out 2020.
In its entirety, the card is scheduled for 10 fights and will once again be held at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with no crowd in attendance due to the pandemic's ongoing restrictions courtesy. The card will be live and featured on ESPN2 and ESPN+ for the entire night, with prelims kicking off at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET.
As we do every week, we like to predict a winner for each fight, find some spots that look wager-worthy, and set a DraftKings lineup or two. With that said, let's dive in.
Our current run is as follows:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DETAILS
- DATE: SATURDAY 11/28/2020
- BROADCAST: ESPN2 – Prelims: ESPN+
- VENUE: UFC APEX
- LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
- # of MATCHES: 10
UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY
- Fight card predictions overall: 355-186-10 (66%)
- Targeted matchups (wagers): 188-79-5 (70%)
MAIN CARD
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS
#6 ANTHONY SMITH 33-16 VS DEVIN CLARK 12-4
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS
JOSH PARISIAN 13-3 VS PARKER PORTER 10-6
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS
MIGUEL BAEZA 9-0 VS TAKASHI SATO 16-3
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS
SPIKE CARLYLE 9-2 VS BILL ALGEO 13-5
PRELIMS
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS
ASHLEE EVANS-SMITH 6-4 VS NORMA DUMONT 4-1
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS
MARTIN DAY 8-4 VS ANDERSON DOS SANTOS 20-8
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS
GINA MAZANY 6-4 VS RACHAEL OSTOVICH 4-5
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS
KAI KAMAKA 8-2 VS JONATHAN PEARCE 9-4
FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS
SU MUDARJI 12-4 VS MALCOLM GORDON 12-4
CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS
LUKE SANDERS 13-3 VS NATE MANESS 12-1
MAIN CARD WAGERS
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS: #6 ANTHONY SMITH 33-16 VS DEVIN CLARK 12-4
- Smith is just 1-3 in his last four fights.
- Clark has at least one takedown in each of his UFC wins.
- Clark has the advantage in all striking stats.
- Smith, with very low striking output, also has a -1.46 striking differential.
- Smith is the bigger fighter, though he will get taken down where we will see that "lionheart" hangs in there once again.
- Big step up for Clark, though he has some momentum coming into this one.
- BET: Click here to continue
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS: JOSH PARISIAN 13-3 VS PARKER PORTER 10-6
- In five of Porter's six losses, he’s been finished in the first round, including a 2008 KO loss to Jon Jones in just 36 seconds.
- Parisian is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on DWCS.
- Parisian is riding a six-fight win streak, finishing 5 of them in the 1st round, and the other in the second. All by TKO/KO.
- Parisian should be able to finish this one, but not a fan of the line.
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS: MIGUEL BAEZA 9-0 VS TAKASHI SATO 16-3
- Baeza comes in undefeated at 9-0 and 2-0 in the UFC.
- Sato is a quick starter, and 10 of his 16 wins have come in the 1st round.
- Sato’s last 7 wins are via TKO/KO.
- Sato has a -1.16 strike differential.
- Both fighter's average fight time is under 1.5 rounds after 28 combined fights.
- BET: Click here to continue
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: SPIKE CARLYLE 9-2 VS BILL ALGEO 13-5
- Algeo lost his UFC debut, fighting Ricardo Lamas on just six days' notice.
- Carlyle is a fast starter, with seven of his nine wins coming in Round 1.
- After 11 fights, Carlyle has yet to be finished.
- Algeo will have the height and reach advantage.
- BET: Click here to continue
PRELIMS WAGERS
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: ASHLEE EVANS-SMITH 6-4 VS NORMA DUMONT 4-1
- Both fighters are making a return to bantamweight for this fight.
- Evans-Smith is just 1-3 in her last four fights.
- Dumont is undefeated at bantamweight. (3-0)
- Dumont is looking to pick up her first win in the US.
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: MARTIN DAY 8-4 VS ANDERSON DOS SANTOS 20-8
- Both fighter’s backs against the wall, as they are 0-2 in the org.
- Dos Santos has had a 17-month layoff after withdrawing due to a positive COVID test back in July.
- Day is just 4-3 at this weight.
- Day has a significant advantage in striking statistics across the board.
- While landing 2.70 significant strikes per minute, Dos Santos absorbs almost double at 5.23.
- Dos Santos’ strength is submissions, and Day has never been finished in that fashion.
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS: GINA MAZANY 6-4 VS RACHAEL OSTOVICH 4-5
- With a record of 6-4 overall, Mazany is just 1-4 in the UFC.
- Ostovich has been out just short of two years after withdrawing from her last two consecutive bouts.
- Typically a bantamweight, Mazany will be making her flyweight debut and will be the much bigger fighter.
- Ostovich averages 3.28 takedowns avg/15 minutes and will look to leverage Mazany’s 20% takedown defense.
- If Mazany loses to a 4-5 fighter that has been out of action for two years, I’d suspect a pink slip. Expect a heavily motivated Mazany to give her best effort.
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: KAI KAMAKA 8-2 VS JONATHAN PEARCE 9-4
- Kamaka steps in on just seven days' notice after Sean Woodson withdrew.
- After ten fights, Kamaka has just one victory via finish and has gone to a decision in his last seven fights.
- Pearce will have the height and reach advantage, though Kamaka has never lost at featherweight. (3-0)
FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS: SU MUDAERJI 12-4 VS MALCOLM GORDON 12-4
- Win or lose, seven of Gordon's last eight fights have ended in the 1st round, and his overall average fight time is under 1.5 rounds.
- A knockout machine for this weight class, Mudarji has 10 of his 12 wins coming by way of TKO/KO.
- Mudaerji has four losses on his record, and all are via submission, which happens to be the method Gordon has won 6 of his 12 victories.
- This will be Mudarji’s first fight in the U.S.
- Gordon has lost by TKO/KO in three of his four losses.
- In 32 combined fights, these fighters have only gone to a decision a combined three times.
- BET: Click here to continue
CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 140LBS: LUKE SANDERS 13-3 VS NATE MANESS 12-1
- This fight will be at a 140lb catchweight, and Maness will be dropping down from 145, and Sanders moving up from 135.
- Sanders is just 2-3 in his last five fights and has been out of action for 21 months.
- Maness will have a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage.
Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook options as well, on top of the daily fantasy tournaments available for Saturday. The sportsbook has lines up and available for fight lines, method of victory, and round betting!
See all of the moneylines at DraftKings Sportsbook!
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS PLAYS & STRATEGIES
- Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
- Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
- Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in, you can compare method of victory to the method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Fight Night. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Some recommendations:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS RECOMMENDATIONS
- Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
- Fights projected to NOT go to a decision
- Smith/Clark -110
- Parisian/Porter -490
- Baeza/Sato -245
- Algeo/Carlyle -160
- Mudaerji/Gordon -270
Good luck, everyone, and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night! Thanks for all the amazing comments, and I appreciate the follows. If you haven’t done so already, jump on Twitter and find me at @Y2CASEY. Stay cashin’.