A middleweight bout featuring Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till headlines this UFC event's main card
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till
#UFCVegas36 MMA Betting Preview
The middleweights take center stage Saturday as #5 Derek Brunson (22-7) looks to make it five straight against the returning fan-favorite from Liverpool #7 Darren Till (18-3-1) in a five-round main event. Either Brunson or Till could enter the title talk conversations with an impressive win, and you best believe the victor will let it be known during their post-fight speech Saturday afternoon. That’s right, we have an earlier card this week, presumably due to NCAA football taking over just about every channel as week one gets underway. With that said, ESPN+ will host the entire 10 fight card, and it will kick off at 1:30 p.m. ET with the prelims, followed up with the main card at 4 p.m.
Outside of the main event, matchmakers have set us up with some good scraps, which include #13 Tom Aspinall (10-2) taking on fellow heavyweight #14 Sergey Spivak (13-2) in the co-main, finishers Khalil Rountree (8-5) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (11-4), and the UFC debut of Liverpool’s Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett who looks to catch some eyes.
EVENT DETAILS
• DATE: SATURDAY 09/04/21
• BROADCAST: ESPN+
• VENUE: UFC APEX
• LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
• # of MATCHES: 10
MAIN CARD HOT TAKES, PREDICTIONS & BETS
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT (185 LBS): #5 DEREK BRUNSON (22-7) VS #7 DARREN TILL (18-3-1)
We have a solid striker vs. grappler main event here and although both have been cordial this fight week, expect both to come in looking for a finish rather than a five-round chess match. Brunson has won four straight since making the move to Sanford MMA and has looked dominant along the way. Brunson is an underdog in this fight again, just as he was in three of his last four matches, including a finish of Edmen Shahbazyan as a +300 underdog by fight time. Brunson's Achilles’ heel has been his habit of hanging his chin out for his opponent, which has resulted in five of his seven losses coming by way of knockout. We have not seen this habit in his last four bouts against some dudes with heavy hands as well. Looking at this four-fight sample, we will call it Brunson 2.0. We've seen some considerable volume on the feet compared to the rest of his resume, coupled with multiple takedowns in each fight (16 takedowns in total across the 4-fight span). It's very well known Brunson has some solid grappling, and it's no secret he will go back to the well here against Till.
We haven’t seen Till in over a year. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to former champ Robert Whittaker in July of 2020. Although his record reflects a 2-3 record since 2018, it arguably could be 0-5, with his two victories in that span coming via debatable decision wins against Kelvin Gastelum and Stephen Thompson. Till is typically a low-volume fighter, though he throws with intent and has one-shot power to sleep you when he lands. He has above average takedown defense and prefers to keep things standing. He can hang on the mat if the fight goes down. This will be a tough test against a wrestler like Brunson. One thing you may have noticed when watching Till fights, he flips a switch when his opponent presses and turns on his combos and forward movement, rather than his counters. We will see this here with the pressure from Brunson.
Both guys have suspect chins. Till has been knocked down in three of his last four fights, and Brunson has been finished by strikes in the first round in four of his five knockout losses, though this 2.0 version (last four fights) is something to note. The trajectory of these two over their last four fights is interesting. Brunson looks like a brand new, much-improved title contender, while Till has been mysteries by either getting finished or hanging around and fighting to his opponent’s level in some very close fights. It's tough not to take the dog in this matchup, even though the thought of recency bias could come into the conversation.
Prediction: Derek Brunson
Bet: Brunson +155
HEAVYWEIGHT (265 LBS): #13 TOM ASPINALL (10-2) VS #14 SERGHEI SPIVAK (13-2)
This bout is on seven days' notice, with Spivak replacing Sergei Pavlovich, who had visa issues. Aspinall has an average fight time of fewer than three minutes in 12 fights. He looked a little gassed going into the second against Arlovski but was still able to finish. Spivak could be sneaky if he can escape the first round, but I’m still siding with the guy who’s been prepping for this date for some time.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall
Bet: Fight won’t start round 3 -175
WELTERWEIGHT (170 LBS): ALEX MORONO (19-7) VS DAVID ZAWADA (17-6)
Morono should be the more superior on the feet. More volume, better foot movement, tougher strength of schedule.
Prediction: Alex Morono
Bet: Morono -135
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (205 LBS): MODESTAS BUKAUSKAS (11-4) VS KHALIL ROUNTREE (8-5)
Rountree is an amazing athlete but is very inconsistent from a mental standpoint. It will be interesting if we see the Rountree who flatted Gokhan Saki or the guy who folded to Ion Cutelaba.
Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas
Bet: Pass
LIGHTWEIGHT (155 LBS): PADDY PIMBLETT (16-3) VS LUIGI VENDRAMINI (9-2)
Paddy’s highlight reel shows us some very slick stuff on the mat, but his striking is mediocre at best. I’m not quite sure I’m ready to jump on the bandwagon yet/
Prediction: Luigi Vendramini
Bet: Pass
PRELIM HOT TAKES, PREDICTIONS & BETS
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT (125 LBS): MOLLY MCCANN (10-4) VS JI YEON KIM (9-3-2)
This will be a back-and-forth striking match. With a 10-inch reach advantage, Kim works in her favor paired with an opponent that is highly likely to opt to trade. If Kim can stay off the mat, I think she can rip off a split decision.
Prediction: Ji Yeon Kim
Bet: Pass
BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): JACK SHORE (14-0) VS LIUDVIK SHOLINIAN (9-1-1)
This fight features the biggest favorite on the card, and it is not close. Shore will be better everywhere, but props to Sholinian, a member of Team Ortega on The Ultimate Fighter, for stepping up on very short notice.
Prediction: Jack Shore
Bet: Pass
CATCHWEIGHT (150 LBS): JULIAN EROSA (25-9) VS CHARLES JOURDAIN (11-3-1)
Another late replacement fighter, as Erosa steps in to face Jourdain. Jourdain has the edge on the feet and has not only durability but an offensive power edge working in his favor. All 11 of Jourdain’s wins have come by way of stoppage, while Erosa has now lost via KO on five occasions, including his last fight back in June, where he was knocked out in 1:37.
Prediction: Charles Jourdain
Bet: Jourdain -180
MIDDLEWEIGHT (185 LBS): DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA (11-2) VS MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT (12-4)
Dalcha Champion looked much improved in his last showing. He began to fade mid-fight but was able to hang on. The muscle he carries works against himself sometimes, and I think Barriault will eventually take this fight over.
Prediction: Marc-Andre Barriault
Bet: Pass
BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): JONATHAN MARTINEZ (13-4) VS MARCELO ROJO (16-7)
I like Martinez to get back on track here. He’ll be in tough against Rojo, who has 14 finishes across his 16 wins, but Martinez should be able to land often. I'll be monitoring the weight cut and how he looks again this time at 135.
Prediction: Jonathan Martinez
Bet: Pass
BET RECAP
• Brunson +155
• Aspinall/Spivak: Fight won’t start round 3 -175
• Morono -135
• Jourdain -180
PARLAYS
Morono/Shore/Jourdain +220
**Pending other props/plays live during the card, please check my Twitter @Y2CASEY
UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY
• 2021 predictions: 180-127-6 (59%)
• 2021 wagers: 94-84-2 (53%)
Overall record
• Predictions: 561-326-17 (63%)
• Wagers: 304-171-8 (64%)
MMA DFS Charts
Heat Chart
Offensive output meter
TD AVG/15: Takedown average per 15 min
TD AVG/15: Takedown average per 15 min
SUM: SLpM+TD AVG/15
DFS RECOMMENDATIONS
- Fights projected to NOT go to a decision
- Brunson/Till -205
- Spivak/Aspinall -300
- Rountree/Bukauskas -240
- Vendramini/Pimblett -190
- Shore/Sholinian -150
- Jourdain/Erosa -215
- Lungiambula/Barriault -158
- Martinez/Rojo -115
- For the main event, I like Brunson and the takedown potential across the five rounds. If the fight ends early, it's more than likely Till catching Brunson. Don't stack, but if you play multi, snag shares of both.
- Top Tier fighters to build around include: Aspinall, Shore, Jourdain
- Mid Tier fighter considerations are: Morono
- Live Dogs that could score: Brunson, Vendramini, Kim
Good luck, everyone. I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night! Follow me on Twitter @Y2CASEY